Lab Leak: The conspiracy theory is shaping up to look like real possibility

[mikewhitney]

I found out where the conspiracy theorists hang out.

[shunyadragon]

I want to avoid stating a conclusion until I've had more time to think about this, but I'm tipping toward the conclusion that the virus escaped from WIV. Available data say the MRCA of RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2 must be the MRCA of RaTG13 and the proximal ancestor. That MRCA dates to within the past 50 years or so. It seems to me that says they came from the same cave. Virus from that cave was brought to Wuhan by Zhengli Shi herself. Virus from that cave is the proximal ancestor of SARS-CoV-2.

And then there's this ...

Although RaTG13, sampled from a Rhinolophus affinis bat1, is ~96% identical overall to SARS-CoV-2, its spike diverges in the RBD, which suggests that it may not bind efficiently to human ACE2 (Fig. 1a).

The principle difference between RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2 is in their RBDs, the spikes where they insert into human cells. The difference is in how efficiently those spikes bind to human ACE2. That points to selection pressure from spreading in humans or human cells. That's from her paper.

So cells in a dish, or a human contagion that percolated undetected in Guangdong before traveling to Wuhan.

I'm wondering if that was what Petrovsky was trying to say.

I'd really like somebody like the Lurch to check me on this.

Your neglecting the fact that the near perfect match for the COVAG-19 DNA is the pangolin animal found in the Wuhan market. The pangolin was determined to be the most likely source by several references cited and the US administration acknowledges that the most likely source was natural.

[Juvenal]

Your neglecting the fact that the near perfect match for the COVAG-19 DNA is the pangolin animal found in the Wuhan market. The pangolin was determined to be the most likely source by several references cited and the US administration acknowledges that the most likely source was natural.

It's called Covid-19. That word you're using shows up in the urban dictionary. I don't think you should be using it.

It is not a perfect match for pangolin.

The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2

1. Natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer

As many early cases of COVID-19 were linked to the Huanan market in Wuhan, it is possible that an animal source was present at this location. Given the similarity of SARS-CoV-2 to bat SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses, it is likely that bats serve as reservoir hosts for its progenitor. Although RaTG13, sampled from a Rhinolophus affinis bat, is ~96% identical overall to SARS-CoV-2, its spike diverges in the RBD, which suggests that it may not bind efficiently to human ACE2 (Fig. 1a).

Malayan pangolins (Manis javanica) illegally imported into Guangdong province contain coronaviruses similar to SARS-CoV-2. Although the RaTG13 bat virus remains the closest to SARS-CoV-2 across the genome, some pangolin coronaviruses exhibit strong similarity to SARS-CoV-2 in the RBD, including all six key RBD residues (Fig. 1). This clearly shows that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein optimized for binding to human-like ACE2 is the result of natural selection.

The similarity to pangolin coronaviruses is only in the RBD and is referenced only to show the changes from RaTG13 found in SARS-CoV-2 can occur via natural selection.

[Cerebrum123]

It's called Covid-19. That word you're using shows up in the urban dictionary. I don't think you should be using it.

snip

I knew it didn't sound right, but had no idea it was on urban dictionary. I don't want to look that one up do I?

[Cow Poke]

It's called Covid-19. That word you're using shows up in the urban dictionary. I don't think you should be using it....

I was wondering where he got that, because Covid is Corona Virus Disease -- couldn't figure out what the other was supposed to be.

[Juvenal]

I knew it didn't sound right, but had no idea it was on urban dictionary. I don't want to look that one up do I?

I looked it up just to see if it was a synonym.

It's not.

No, you don't.

[Cow Poke]

I looked it up just to see if it was a synonym.

It's not.

No, you don't.

I was gonna, but didn't.... thanks!

[shunyadragon]

It's called Covid-19. That word you're using shows up in the urban dictionary. I don't think you should be using it.

It is not a perfect match for pangolin.

The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2

1. Natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer

As many early cases of COVID-19 were linked to the Huanan market in Wuhan, it is possible that an animal source was present at this location. Given the similarity of SARS-CoV-2 to bat SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses, it is likely that bats serve as reservoir hosts for its progenitor. Although RaTG13, sampled from a Rhinolophus affinis bat, is ~96% identical overall to SARS-CoV-2, its spike diverges in the RBD, which suggests that it may not bind efficiently to human ACE2 (Fig. 1a).

Malayan pangolins (Manis javanica) illegally imported into Guangdong province contain coronaviruses similar to SARS-CoV-2. Although the RaTG13 bat virus remains the closest to SARS-CoV-2 across the genome, some pangolin coronaviruses exhibit strong similarity to SARS-CoV-2 in the RBD, including all six key RBD residues (Fig. 1). This clearly shows that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein optimized for binding to human-like ACE2 is the result of natural selection.

The similarity to pangolin coronaviruses is only in the RBD and is referenced only to show the changes from RaTG13 found in SARS-CoV-2 can occur via natural selection.

Your neglecting the conclusions of the research I cited and the administrations conclusions based on the available evidence, and nitpicking the wording of my post.

You have failed to offer any independent research that reaches the conclusions you are making based on the evidence. All you offer is possibilities.

[simplicio]

It's called Covid-19. That word you're using shows up in the urban dictionary. I don't think you should be using it.

It is not a perfect match for pangolin.

The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2

1. Natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer

As many early cases of COVID-19 were linked to the Huanan market in Wuhan, it is possible that an animal source was present at this location. Given the similarity of SARS-CoV-2 to bat SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses, it is likely that bats serve as reservoir hosts for its progenitor. Although RaTG13, sampled from a Rhinolophus affinis bat, is ~96% identical overall to SARS-CoV-2, its spike diverges in the RBD, which suggests that it may not bind efficiently to human ACE2 (Fig. 1a).

Malayan pangolins (Manis javanica) illegally imported into Guangdong province contain coronaviruses similar to SARS-CoV-2. Although the RaTG13 bat virus remains the closest to SARS-CoV-2 across the genome, some pangolin coronaviruses exhibit strong similarity to SARS-CoV-2 in the RBD, including all six key RBD residues (Fig. 1). This clearly shows that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein optimized for binding to human-like ACE2 is the result of natural selection.

The similarity to pangolin coronaviruses is only in the RBD and is referenced only to show the changes from RaTG13 found in SARS-CoV-2 can occur via natural selection.

It is also a translation of covid 19 in Slavic languages and some other international literature. Yes it is used, though it is pretty uncommon

[Starlight]

the near perfect match for the COVAG-19 DNA is the pangolin animal found in the Wuhan market

The part that puzzles me more than the COVAG name, is the apparent suggestion that there is Pangolin DNA in an RNA virus.

A similar virus to COVID-19 was found present in some infected Pangolins. The virus isn't made of Pangolins.

[Juvenal]

The part that puzzles me more than the COVAG name, is the apparent suggestion that there is Pangolin DNA in an RNA virus.

A similar virus to COVID-19 was found present in some infected Pangolins. The virus isn't made of Pangolins.

^the virus causing ...

Yeah, it's confusing. His source says "the RaTG13 bat virus remains the closest to SARS-CoV-2 across the genome." He says it's pangolins.

Who are we going to believe?

[Sparko]

Trouble is the epithets fly so freely here.

Wear them proudly.

I am a member of:

carpedm9587's Cabal
Da Blonde's Axis of Evil,
Adam's Dirty Dozen,
Dee Dee's Goon Squad,
Tweb's In-Crowd,
The Brood of Vipers
Oxmixmudd's "You Guys" Civics Clan

[Sparko]

Wuhan lab says there's no way coronavirus originated there. Here's the science.

Just today (April 18), the vice director of WIV Zhiming Yuan CGTN, the Chinese state broadcaster, said "there is no way this virus came from us," NBC News reported. "We have a strict regulatory regime and code of conduct of research, so we are confident."

Covid-19's closest relative is RaTG13, which was being studied at the Wuhan Institute of Virology lab. RaTG13 is extremely close to Covid-19, but the differences are significant.

Edward Holmes, of the Charles Perkins Center and the Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity at the University of Sydney ... added, "the level of genome sequence divergence between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 is equivalent to an average of 50 years (and at least 20 years) of evolutionary change."

Depending on the route across the river, WIV is 10 to 15 miles away from the Wuhan South China Seafood Wholesale Market originally identified as the source of the infection in the Nature article. That's the article published with Zhengli Shi listed as corresponding author. Zhengli Shi is the lead bat coronavirus researcher at WIV.

She's on record being very concerned it might have escaped from her lab. She immediately combed through all their records to satisfy herself that it didn't. She swears it didn't, by her life. I'm not sure how to read that. Is it a sacred vow or a plea for rescue. Forgive the snark, but in China today, there are ER doctors who spoke up about the early cases and haven't been heard from since. Other than the one we know died from Covid-19. And their broadcast news features casual announcements of new capital punishments.

I want to believe her, because it would be a truly terrible thing to be falsely accused of being responsible for millions of deaths. But it's really easy to imagine a scenario where she would lie, forcefully, even if she was willing to sacrifice herself. I'm sure that she would not be allowed to live if she admitted fault, and more, that many of her closest colleagues would then share the same fate.

There are ways to quickly bridge a mutation gap in the lab that would take 50 years to occur in the wild. One could, for instance, culture the virus in lab dishes filled with cells with ACE2 receptors, which is where Covid-19, like SARS before it, enters the cell. In fact, that's a natural place to grow it. But it would also be dangerous. And consistent with the differences between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13.

Nikolai Petrovsky, in the College of Medicine and Public Health at Flinders [said] "The result of these experiments is a virus that is highly virulent in humans but is sufficiently different that it no longer resembles the original bat virus," Petrovsky said in a statement from the Australian Media Center. "Because the mutations are acquired randomly by selection, there is no signature of a human gene jockey, but this is clearly a virus still created by human intervention."

We know this virus originates with bats in Guangdong, a thousand miles away, which is where WIV picked up RaTG13, its closest relative. If the SARS-CoV-2 did not descend from RaTG13, then there must be another virus out in the wild that's even closer to SARS-CoV-2.

Here's the tipping point for me.

That means it also has RaTG13 as its closest relative.

That is similar to my own thoughts I mentioned earlier:

They could have been studying coronaviruses to see how they jump from animals to humans by exposing animal virus to human cells until they evolved to infect human DNA. Then someone accidentally infected themselves and started the spread in the population.

[shunyadragon]

^the virus causing ...

Yeah, it's confusing. His source says "the RaTG13 bat virus remains the closest to SARS-CoV-2 across the genome." He says it's pangolins.

Who are we going to believe?

The scientific references, and those sources available to the USA government to conclude what I cited. In a way both animals as cited. Bats are the reservoir of mutating viruses passing then around to other animals.

[seanD]

So we're just not going to talk about this?

Mike Pompeo: 'enormous evidence' coronavirus came from Chinese lab