Ideas on how to reopen the economy w/o returning to exponential spread

[Bill the Cat]

It's going to spread no matter what we do. Either now or later. Delaying the reopening of the economy is only delaying the inevitable.

[seanD]

It's going to spread no matter what we do. Either now or later. Delaying the reopening of the economy is only delaying the inevitable.

The economy is destroyed already and "reopening it" (whatever that means) won't do anything to recover what we've already lost (with the exception of a likely market spike). On the other hand, if they reopen and there's a second wave, Trump will get blamed for that in addition to everything else.

[oxmixmudd]

It's going to spread no matter what we do. Either now or later. Delaying the reopening of the economy is only delaying the inevitable.

No - it's just not that black and white Bill. S Korea still has spread, but it is at a very low rate. Yes it will continue to spread. But if the rate is a few hundred or less per day as opposed to 10's of thousands like we have now, and we have good testing and tracing protocols, we can live with that. What we can't live with is an out of control exponential growth where hospital staff or dying and worked to exhaustion and morgues can't hold all the bodies. further, if we can proactively test Elder care workers at least daily, then we have a much better chance of truly protecting them w/o having to lock them in solitary confinement. It's complicated, It's not simple, but there are things we can do short of just letting everyone die that can't fight it off.

[oxmixmudd]

The economy is destroyed already and "reopening it" (whatever that means) won't do anything to recover what we've already lost (with the exception of a likely market spike). On the other hand, if they reopen and there's a second wave, Trump will get blamed for that in addition to everything else.

Looking for positive approaches, creative ideas, even reasonable questions (e.g. how can we work around problem X) not negative gripes. Please stay within those boundaries or you'll be required to practice virtual social distancing wrt this thread

[seanD]

So - the point is to look for ideas that allow 'opening up' without opening up so to speak. We agree we don't want to just 'open up' willy nilly, but if we get creative there are probably ways to restart the economy w/o necessarily putting large numbers of people back in physical contact with each other.

Looking for positive approaches, creative ideas, even reasonable questions (e.g. how can we work around problem X) not negative gripes. Please stay within those boundaries or you'll be required to practice virtual social distancing wrt this thread

Thing is, the term "opening up" is too ambiguous. Folks are already making those necessary accommodations now. They're avoiding each other. They're wearing masks in public (at least here in LA it's now a government directive). Those who can work from home are working from home. Those who can afford to order their food online are doing that. So I don't know what "opening up" means apart from that or what you could possibly to do differently that isn't already happening now, especially if your argument is things we can to do to save the economy, because that's the impression I got from your OP.

[oxmixmudd]

Thing is, the term "opening up" is too ambiguous. Folks are already making those necessary accommodations now. They're avoiding each other. They're wearing masks in public (at least here in LA it's now a government directive). Those who can work from home are working from home. Those who can afford to order their food online are doing that. So I don't know what "opening up" means apart from that or what you could possibly to do differently that isn't already happening now, especially if your argument is things we can to do to save the economy, because that's the impression I got from your OP.

That's fine. And you are right that I might have been too vague in the OP. So, right now basically any business that brings people together but that isnt necessary is shut down. For example. Right now many of us guys are either cutting our own hair or just heading back through time eventually heading to the late 60's and 70's. So what could we do to make it possible to get haircuts and not increase the risk of covid exposure. Is it impossible, or is there something not outside the realm of reasonable cost or safety that would let us get haircuts.

Creativity is the goal.

[Sparko]

All good Ideas, thanks Sparko.

I've wondered if we should not just push the age for full retirement back down to 65 or maybe less for those that can afford to go ahead and retire. It would increase costs a bit, but maybe not as much as the increased medical care due to increased medical care/mortality for those at or above 65 that catch covid. With them out of the workforce, it would help reduce the likelihood of them catching or spreading it at work.

yeah, except right now most people's 401K has dropped so much they probably couldn't afford to retire.

I think they should stop taxing SS income. they started that back in the 80s. It is basically stealing. You put into SS your whole career, and then when you need the money, the government finds a way to steal part of it. It isn't new income, it is basically savings.

Also convert all regular IRAs to Roth IRAs to get rid of the tax on those.

[Sparko]

Watching the press conference right now. Sounds like Trump and Birx were reading my list above on many points.

[Bill the Cat]

Read some of an interesting piece from an Israeli scientist who said the end of the pandemic is near. Thoughts?

[simplicio]

That's fine. And you are right that I might have been too vague in the OP. So, right now basically any business that brings people together but that isnt necessary is shut down. For example. Right now many of us guys are either cutting our own hair or just heading back through time eventually heading to the late 60's and 70's. So what could we do to make it possible to get haircuts and not increase the risk of covid exposure. Is it impossible, or is there something not outside the realm of reasonable cost or safety that would let us get haircuts.

Creativity is the goal.

I don't think the OP was vague, the issue has been in the news and is the obvious follow up question to closing down the economy.

One thing which needs to be considered is the morale of people, after a while we will tire of the hardships, maybe the protests in Michigan are a sign, that is if they are not merely astroturf. I don't know what the answer to it is. Politicians with firm resolve, ability to communicate, and applying resources to where they are needed is a definite start.

Propping up nursing homes with assistance is happening, the images of both live and dead patients being removed would spark outrage.

Reining in elites such as Pelosi's strange comments about ice cream (she has very large and expensive frezeer filled with expensive ice cream) and Jared and Ivanka's travel to family owned hotels during travel bans will eventually spark frustration.

I know these are different types of answers than you were expecting, but public morale is important. Sometimes the optimal policy is less important than a workable one in which people can get behind. This lockdown is working because people understand the wisdom of it now.

[seanD]

That's fine. And you are right that I might have been too vague in the OP. So, right now basically any business that brings people together but that isnt necessary is shut down. For example. Right now many of us guys are either cutting our own hair or just heading back through time eventually heading to the late 60's and 70's. So what could we do to make it possible to get haircuts and not increase the risk of covid exposure. Is it impossible, or is there something not outside the realm of reasonable cost or safety that would let us get haircuts.

Creativity is the goal.

I wasn't necessarily saying you were vague, just that the term "opening up" is vague. It's a joke to think Trump can just magically "turn everything back on again" and go back to the way it was. The economy as we knew it before is done. The only way we could even begin to restart it is to build it up from scratch (folks reinvesting, reopening businesses, etc.), and that might take some time, but that would also mean we'd have to continue as we had done previously and not live in fear and timidity about everything. Otherwise, we wouldn't see any real change or improvement because there's nothing we could really do differently to adjust that we aren't already doing now. You also have the problem of PTSD. Some folks want to get on with life (Of course, even if they want to go back to work, where are the companies are out there that will hire them?), but I'm guessing most folks are pretty traumatized and would approach it with extreme caution, especially the folks who own businesses and qualify for bail-outs or those collecting unemployment (both of which have been beefed up to ridiculous levels). Therein lies the unintended moral hazard of government subsidies and bail-outs. IOW, not only is fear a factor in all this, but the government safety nets give folks even less incentive to take any of the necessary chances that need to be taken to build things up again.

[shunyadragon]

General opening gradually over time beginning between May 15 and June 15 depending on the rate of new cases of COVAG-15. The emphasis should isolation and support of those over 65 and the vulnerable. Some adjustments can be made before to keep essential businesses and food production opporating,

As a note at present the rate of infection of new cases does not appear to be declining.

[shunyadragon]

General opening gradually over time beginning between May 15 and June 15 depending on the rate of new cases of COVAG-15. The emphasis should isolation and support of those over 65 and the vulnerable. Some adjustments can be made before to keep essential businesses and food production operating,

As a note at present the rate of infection of new cases does not appear to be declining.

[simplicio]

Looks like Americans are fed up with any form of quarantine. The protests, which seem to have encouragement from a Trump tweet storm, emphasize personal liberty. Trump even tied the "liberation movement" to second amendment controversies in Virginia.

[seanD]

Looks like Americans are fed up with any form of quarantine. The protests, which seem to have encouragement from a Trump tweet storm, emphasize personal liberty. Trump even tied the "liberation movement" to second amendment controversies in Virginia.

It's a partisan thing. Conservatives don't like liberal authoritarianism. But that's nothing new because we never liked it. It's amplified in Michigan because the Dem authoritarian governor there is going overboard trying to impress Biden as a tough girl for the VP position.