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Thread: Ideas on how to reopen the economy w/o returning to exponential spread

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    tWebber
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    Ideas on how to reopen the economy w/o returning to exponential spread

    This thread is for serious ideas about how to simultaneously increase economic output without at the same time increasing spread of the virus.

    Clearly to do this we must enable production but maintain physical isolation of infected and non-infected persons.

    The issue of a collapsing economy is not trivial. Trump and others are absolutely right to be concerned. A depression will cost lives just as the virus will. Likewise the virus spreading exponentially will sabotage the economy even without social distancing. There is no black/white solution here. You can't just turn the economy on and let people die, the economy can't run if people are dying everywhere. People can't work if they are in hospitals. People can't buy goods if every spare dime is devoted to the recovery of a loved one and a significant percentage of the work force is on emergency family leave etc to handle the emergency.

    So we can't abandon social distancing to recover the economy. Neither can we live without and economy for 2 years while we wait for hoped for treatments and/or a vaccine.

    We need ways to do both, at the same time. We need to produce and buy goods without breaking down the isolation we've created that prevents disease spread.

    Some things we are already doing - we are leveraging the internet to order goods, ordering out food to help restaurants survive, wearing masks when we have to go out, washing everything. Many of us are "working from home". Many of our industries are computer based, and we can do that often at home. But we need ways to keep factories going, food processing plants runnnig, distribution services functioning.



    So this thread is about creative ideas that will allow businesses to open up while maintaining the separation required to limit disease spread.

    Anyone have ideas? Maybe we could start just by trying to come up with a list of the sorts of critical economic areas that are seriously hampered by the shutdown.

    (do not even bother to post if your 'idea' is to just go back to life as it was before covid)
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 04-16-2020 at 11:37 AM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

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    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Simple: Protect those who are at risk (basically, the same people who are at risk of complications from the common flu), and let the rest of us go back to work while taking the same precautions you would to prevent any other illness.

    Let's not make things more complicated than they need to be.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    This thread is for serious ideas about how to simultaneously increase economic output without at the same time increasing spread of the virus.

    Clearly to do this we must enable production but maintain physical isolation of infected and non-infected persons.

    The issue of a collapsing economy is not trivial. Trump and others are absolutely right to be concerned. A depression will cost lives just as the virus will. Likewise the virus spreading exponentially will sabotage the economy even without social distancing. There is no black/white solution here. You can't just turn the economy on and let people die, the economy can't run if people are dying everywhere. People can't work if they are in hospitals. People can't by goods if every spare dime is devoted to the recovery of a loved one and the are on emergency family leave.

    So we can't abandon social distancing to recover the economy. Neither can we live without and economy for 2 years while we wait for hoped for treatments and/or a vaccine.

    We need ways to do both, at the same time. We need to produce and buy goods without breaking down the isolation we've created that prevents disease spread.

    Some things we are already doing - we are leveraging the internet to order goods, ordering out food to help restaurants survive, wearing masks when we have to go out, washing everything. Many of us are "working from home". Many of our industries are computer based, and we can do that often at home. But we need ways to keep factories going, food processing plants runnnig, distribution services functioning.



    So this thread is about creative ideas that will allow businesses to open up while maintaining the separation required to limit disease spread.

    Anyone have ideas? Maybe we could start just by trying to come up with a list of the sorts of critical economic areas that are seriously hampered by the shutdown.

    (do not even bother to post if your 'idea' is to just go back to life as it was before covid)
    So what made you change? Before, you were accusing us of just being selfish and greedy to worry about the economic consequences.

    And the economic damages are already done (which we have yet to see fully in the data); there's no turning that back. You also have to consider PSTD of the consumer. They've been scared witless by the MSM for three months. There's little chance they'll just recoup from that over night and continue their habits as before.

    We never should have locked everything down to begin with. But since that's neither here nor there, we might as well keep everything in lockdown, lest we have a resurgence and are in even worse shape than before.
    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

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    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    Simple: Protect those who are at risk (basically, the same people who are at risk of complications from the common flu), and let the rest of us go back to work while taking the same precautions you would to prevent any other illness.

    Let's not make things more complicated than they need to be.
    MM - this ignores that facts concerning the disease and is close to the sort of post I said not to bother putting up in this thread.

    Why:

    1) The Evidence right now is that infected persons are most contageous BEFORE they show symptoms.
    2) The mortality is way beyond that of the flu
    3) The effect of the disease is far worse than the flu on those that have a serious response to it.
    4) the Mortality of the disease is beyond disastrous for the elderly.

    So presumption one that one must work within to post in this thread is that this disease is not the flu and can't be treated as the flu. If you want to push that agenda, start a different thread.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  5. Amen Charles amen'd this post.
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    So what made you change? Before, you were accusing us of just being selfish and greedy to worry about the economic consequences.

    And the economic damages are already done (which we have yet to see fully in the data); there's no turning that back. You also have to consider PSTD of the consumer. They've been scared witless by the MSM for three months. There's little chance they'll just recoup from that over night and continue their habits as before.

    We never should have locked everything down to begin with. But since that's neither here nor there, we might as well keep everything in lockdown, lest we have a resurgence and are in even worse shape than before.
    I'm looking for ideas seanD, not gripes and complaints.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    I'm looking for ideas seanD, not gripes and complaints.
    I gave them to you. The damage is done. No point in opening things up now when we could have a resurgence.
    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

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    We need to first look at what types of businesses are likely to be vectors. Nursing homes, cruise ships, airlines, and sports stadiums are the most obvious to me (without thinking about it longer than a couple minutes), though I hope it should be obvious that one of these four is rather unlike the other. Nursing homes already seem to be developing methods of providing social engagement for these populations for whom this is a real necessity, more so than for most of it. Cruises may simply have to remain grounded for awhile. Sports may be able to operate without spectators, though this is more easily said than done for a number of complicating reasons (not the least of which is that the collective bargaining agreements of professional sports leagues may have to be renegotiated to allow for the significant changes that would need to happen, and to allow for the likely ongoing quarantines that would be needed for such athletes). Requiring everybody wear a mask at all times during flights seems like a reasonable way to allow flights to continue, unless somebody somehow develops a reliable test that can detect asymptomatic carriers on the spot.

    Most other businesses can probably operate with minimal disruption under reasonable social distancing guidelines and not be likely to serve as the epicenters for a second wave.
    "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

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    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    MM - this ignores that facts concerning the disease and is close to the sort of post I said not to bother putting up in this thread.

    Why:

    1) The Evidence right now is that infected persons are most contageous BEFORE they show symptoms.
    2) The mortality is way beyond that of the flu
    3) The effect of the disease is far worse than the flu on those that have a serious response to it.
    4) the Mortality of the disease is beyond disastrous for the elderly.

    So presumption one that one must work within to post in this thread is that this disease is not the flu and can't be treated as the flu. If you want to push that agenda, start a different thread.
    The evidence also shows that those who are otherwise healthy are at the lowest risk of becoming seriously ill. You mention the elderly. That would be one of the at-risk groups that we would need to take extra precautions with. The point is, we know who is at risk, and who isn't. Treating everybody as if they're in the high risk demographic doesn't make any sense.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    So what made you change
    The peak appears over, so oxmix has stopped panicking so he can finally get to grips with the fact that people will die because of the depression.

    And the economic damages are already done (which we have yet to see fully in the data); there's no turning that back.
    Many small business have not folded yet, though they will over the next two weeks.

    You also have to consider PSTD of the consumer. They've been scared witless by the MSM for three months.
    I suggest immediately opening business and raining money on young people who think themselves invincible and will be back to partying in no time. Helicopter in a trillion or so, half to people below thirty to boost demand and maybe you can save some small business owners from suicide.
    Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

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    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    I gave them to you. The damage is done. No point in opening things up now when we could have a resurgence.
    So - the point is to look for ideas that allow 'opening up' without opening up so to speak. We agree we don't want to just 'open up' willy nilly, but if we get creative there are probably ways to restart the economy w/o necessarily putting large numbers of people back in physical contact with each other.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

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