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Thread: the morality of opening up ...

  1. #41
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    I posted this article in another thread, so perhaps you missed it:

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...arming-models/

    In summary, it shows various IHME models that were updated over time to take mitigation efforts into account, and they still vastly overestimated actual cases of the China flu. Even the best case scenario projections with mitigation were at least 50% higher than reality.

    But then the argument comes back to, "The numbers were only that low because of the extreme mitigation efforts!" Were they? There was no control group to check against, so how do we really know? One study showed that the rise and fall of the Wuhan virus followed the same path regardless of what individual countries did in response.

    Professor Isaac Ben-Israel has provided Townhall with a copy of the English version of his study.

    "Our analysis shows that this is a constant pattern across countries. Surprisingly, this pattern is common to countries that have taken a severe lockdown, including an economy paralysis, as well as to countries that implemented a far more lenient policy and have continued in ordinary life," writes Professor Isaac Ben-Israel in the introduction of the translated study. His conclusion is simple: coronavirus "declines even without a complete lockdown."

    [...]

    Professor Ben-Israel debunks the misconception of government lockdowns or controls as a leading cause of coronavirus infection rate reductions. "Some may claim that the decline in the number of additional patients every day is a result of the tight lockdown imposed by the government and health authorities. Examining the data of different countries around the world casts a heavy question mark on the above statement. It turns out that similar pattern - a rapid increase in infections that reaches a peak in the sixth week and declines from the eighth week – is common to all countries in which the disease was discovered, regardless of their response policies: some imposed a severe and immediate lockdown that included not only 'social distancing' and banning crowding, but also an economic shutdown (like Israel); some 'ignored' the infection and continued almost a normal life (such as Taiwan, Korea or Sweden), and some initially adopted a lenient policy but soon reversed to a complete lockdown (such as Italy or the State of New York). Nonetheless, the data shows similar time constants amongst all these countries in regard to the initial rapid growth and the decline of the disease."

    https://townhall.com/columnists/mari...pread-n2567291
    You are clueless mm. All that shows is the effect of mitigation on the progress of the disease. The are based on current behavior. They show what happens if a trend continues. Mitigation changes the trend, which changes the projection.

    Yes, our mitigation efforts made a huge difference in the outcome. And you are nuts to claim they were unnecessary. Those curves show you just how bad things would have even if we had not sheltered at home.

    ETA: As for your second claim this rise and fall is independent of mitigation efforts, that's just more tobacco/anti-climate like denial. The inflection points in the logarithmic growth curves match the introduction of shelter in place if every country I've looked at. And there are very few places in the world stupid enough not to do that, but so far Mexico is one, and they are growing exponentially. So we'll see, if they do nothing you'll get to see what happens, and otherwise when/if they face where it is headed they too will introduce shelter in place, then we'll see that curve start to flatten when they do just like everywhere else.

    The problem here is that to silence you we need some place in the world that is willing to let it go and do its worst. Frankly, the world doesn't need that sort of death on it's conscience just to show people like yourself the obvious.

    IOW, there is a certain amount of 'herd immunity' regarding intelligence that at least sometimes protects the world from people like yourself
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 04-24-2020 at 08:26 AM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  2. #42
    tWebber Ronson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roy View Post
    Go back and look again.
    I see. I retract.

  3. #43
    tWebber Ronson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    No, he's right at least as far my calling him ignorant. I have the habit of changing some people's usernames in the "Originally posted by..." portion of a quote to something more appropriate. It really gets under Roy's skin.
    I do that sometimes when I quote from articles. I'll insert the name of the person who is quoted in the article.

  4. #44
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    You are clueless mm. All that shows is the effect of mitigation on the progress of the disease. The are based on current behavior. They show what happens if a trend continues. Mitigation changes the trend, which changes the projection.

    Yes, our mitigation efforts made a huge difference in the outcome. And you are nuts to claim they were unnecessary. Those curves show you just how bad things would have even if we had not sheltered at home.
    I fully acknowledge the need and effect of mitigation efforts particularly to protect the the elderly and vulnerable, and yes the mitigation efforts have a significant effect in those countries where it was proactive, aggressive and consistent. Unfortunately most countries of the world failed their initial efforts, and at best a D since, especially in terms of consistency. All the data and the graphs in most of the Western countries clearly show the COVID 19 virus is in control the virus does what the virus does naturally, and bell shaped curves reflect a natural pattern reflecting different times of intial beginning of the infection in each area or region and other factors than our efforts to mitigate.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  5. #45
    tWebber whag's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man
    I never said we should have taken no action, dumbass,
    This tells you all you need to know about Mountain Man.

  6. #46
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    You are clueless mm. All that shows is the effect of mitigation on the progress of the disease. The are based on current behavior. They show what happens if a trend continues. Mitigation changes the trend, which changes the projection.

    Yes, our mitigation efforts made a huge difference in the outcome. And you are nuts to claim they were unnecessary. Those curves show you just how bad things would have even if we had not sheltered at home.

    ETA: As for your second claim this rise and fall is independent of mitigation efforts, that's just more tobacco/anti-climate like denial. The inflection points in the logarithmic growth curves match the introduction of shelter in place if every country I've looked at. And there are very few places in the world stupid enough not to do that, but so far Mexico is one, and they are growing exponentially. So we'll see, if they do nothing you'll get to see what happens, and otherwise when/if they face where it is headed they too will introduce shelter in place, then we'll see that curve start to flatten when they do just like everywhere else.

    The problem here is that to silence you we need some place in the world that is willing to let it go and do its worst. Frankly, the world doesn't need that sort of death on it's conscience just to show people like yourself the obvious.

    IOW, there is a certain amount of 'herd immunity' regarding intelligence that at least sometimes protects the world from people like yourself
    Your blanket denials of the facts I presented are not convincing.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  7. #47
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    Your blanket denials of the facts I presented are not convincing.
    You presented graphs but did not understand their implications, and neither did the writers at breitbart (or maybe they did but just figured could fool you guys into thinking the way they want you to) I can't fix your lack of capacity to understand science and mathematics MM. You demonstrated those deficiencies many, many times here, and you blindly trust breitbart, and you don't trust me. The reality is, those are projections based on trends at the time the projection is made. If the mitigation has greater effect than the simulation expects, then the real values will be lower.

    But exponential growth is exponential growth. Those curves show what would have happened if the trend in place when they were calculated continued taking into account known factors like population of the affected area. So what they show is the effect of shelter in place. They do not show that things would have been ok without shelter in place, nor do they show the original projections were themselves flawed.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  8. #48
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    You presented graphs but did not understand their implications, and neither did the writers at breitbart (or maybe they did but just figured could fool you guys into thinking the way they want you to) I can't fix your lack of capacity to understand science and mathematics MM. You demonstrated those deficiencies many, many times here, and you blindly trust breitbart, and you don't trust me. The reality is, those are projections based on trends at the time the projection is made. If the mitigation has greater effect than the simulation expects, then the real values will be lower.

    But exponential growth is exponential growth. Those curves show what would have happened if the trend in place when they were calculated continued taking into account known factors like population of the affected area. So what they show is the effect of shelter in place. They do not show that things would have been ok without shelter in place, nor do they show the original projections were themselves flawed.
    Right... like I said, your blanket denials are not convincing.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    Starlight is welcome to his own opinion. We just don't like it when some troll pretends to be a Christian while condemning Christians and acting like an atheist. ahem.
    Oh. An atheist objects to the "weed out the weakest", while the Christian accepts it?

    I suspect that the atheist, Starlight recognizes how that view is generally seen as in opposition to the Christian ethic, even if he does not accept the Christian view. This is not about some political position, but about a central principles in Christian ethics. I have read enough of Starlight's posts that I would accuse him of being the troll if he couldn't explain why that position is opposed to the traditionally accepted Christian ethic.

    I would see your point, and Chawnus', if Norrinrad was being facetious. But I don't think he is given his other positions. The silence of Christians here speaks volumes.

    If starlight used a similar line, the condemnations would be swift. And appropriate.

    And this is in a thread about utilitarianism!

  10. #50
    tWebber Chrawnus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simplicio View Post
    and Chawnus'
    My point, which I spelled out clearly enough that even a five-year old should have no trouble grasping it, is that I have no faith what so ever in Starlight's ability to suss out who's a genuine Christian or not. Whether or not NorrinRadd's stated position are consistent with being a Christian or not is a completely different beast altogether. I certainly have a hard time reconciling NorrinRadd's statement with a Christian worldview, but if all your beliefs need to be consistent with your stated worldview before you can lay claim to be a "true believer", then I doubt there's anyone on earth who genuinely holds to the worldview they claim to believe in.

  11. Amen Cerebrum123, RumTumTugger, MaxVel amen'd this post.

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