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2020 Election Polling

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  • 2020 Election Polling

    So far, the 2020 election polls are generally trending in what I would consider to be the "right" or "good" direction, especially in some of the more important swing states. Of course we still have over six months to 11/3. Some of the polls, when you factor in the margin of error, show a tight race in some of these states. While that still surprises/dismays me given what it says about our country, I am still holding on to serious hopes for 11/3.
    • FL - 4/24 (today) - Fox News - Biden +3
    • PA - 4/23 - Susquehanna - Biden +6
    • FL - 4/22 - Quinnipiac - Biden +4
    • PA - 4/22 - Fox News - Biden +8
    • MI - 4/22 - Fox News - Biden +8


    Even some red states like NC are in play (though that poll is older).

    Encouraging...
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  • #2
    From an objective point of view, this situation seems okay for Trump. I think Trump is essentially a known quantity at this point in time, whereas Biden isn't. There's really nothing Trump can say or do to whittle away at his base of support at this time (unless he did something stupid like go on a Twitter rant about Christianity should be banned or something), but Biden still has the ability to lose support, especially with questions about his health lingering. He's not the type of candidate who can galvanize excitement.

    Then again, think about how long ago Super Tuesday was. It was only about six weeks ago, but it seems like an eternity given what has transpired since then. Absolutely anything could happen over the next five months, so
    "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

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    • #3
      I'll wait until after the first debate.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
        From an objective point of view, this situation seems okay for Trump. I think Trump is essentially a known quantity at this point in time, whereas Biden isn't. There's really nothing Trump can say or do to whittle away at his base of support at this time (unless he did something stupid like go on a Twitter rant about Christianity should be banned or something), but Biden still has the ability to lose support, especially with questions about his health lingering. He's not the type of candidate who can galvanize excitement.

        Then again, think about how long ago Super Tuesday was. It was only about six weeks ago, but it seems like an eternity given what has transpired since then. Absolutely anything could happen over the next five months, so
        Oh there is no doubt Trump's base is rock solid. Likewise, I think those who share my antipathy for Trump are just as rock solid, and our numbers seem to be about equivalent to the size of the base. The real question is what happens to the gap in between. They are the ones who will decide the election.

        And I agree that we are 6+ months out from 11/3, so there is lots of time for pretty much anything to happen. Heck, 2016 taught us that one week out is still a lot of time for stuff to happen.
        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by seanD View Post
          I'll wait until after the first debate.
          Don't get me wrong - I recognize the time element. I thought it would be a good idea to have a thread that monitors and tracks trending and polling for the election. Covid is a significant factor in all of this, and that situation is far from played out. But if Trump keeps looking like the idiot he looked like with the "disinfectant" and "sunlight" comments, the tide will likely continue to shift against him. And I've been looking at the impact that many of his fiscal policies have had on Midwest farmers and the industrial/manufacturing sector, and I have to wonder just how solid his support is going to be in that base. He doesn't need to lose a lot to lose everything.
          Last edited by carpedm9587; 04-24-2020, 02:44 PM.
          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
            Don't get me wrong - I recognize the time element. I thought it would be a good idea to have a thread that monitors and tracks trending and polling for the election. Covid is a sigificant factor in all of this, and that situation is far from played out.
            The problem with polls in regards to Trump, and hence the problem getting accurate data in the general is the Trump stigma (those who might support his policies, but because of his character and bad press they're reluctant to admit this publicly). I believe that's a real thing. But like I said, we'll see after the debate.

            Comment


            • #7
              The only poll that matters is the one that happens on election day.
              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
              Than a fool in the eyes of God


              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by seanD View Post
                The problem with polls in regards to Trump, and hence the problem getting accurate data in the general is the Trump stigma (those who might support his policies, but because of his character and bad press they're reluctant to admit this publicly). I believe that's a real thing. But like I said, we'll see after the debate.
                I think it might have been a thing in 2016 in some places - but Trump's base is now loud and proud. I don't think the Trump stigma is much of a factor anymore.

                And we will indeed see after the debate(s). Actually, we will see on 11/3!
                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                Comment


                • #9
                  My prediction is Trump will win and you will continue to live here in the USA, just like all of the other whiners who claimed they would move to Canada if Trump won last time.

                  america-so great haters wont leave.jpg

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    Don't get me wrong -
                    I always thought was an odd expression. Many of us can 'get wrong' all by ourselves, and don't need outside help.
                    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                      My prediction is Trump will win and you will continue to live here in the USA, just like all of the other whiners who claimed they would move to Canada if Trump won last time.

                      [ATTACH=CONFIG]44203[/ATTACH]

                      I'd take that bet. What are you offering?


                      BTW - the phrasing in your image is a little off.
                      Last edited by carpedm9587; 04-24-2020, 03:30 PM.
                      The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                      I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                        I always thought was an odd expression. Many of us can 'get wrong' all by ourselves, and don't need outside help.
                        It is an odd turn of phrase, now that you point it out. Generally means "please don't misunderstand my meaning" but literally means "if you get me, do it the right way!"
                        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                          It is an odd turn of phrase, now that you point it out. Generally means "please don't misunderstand my meaning" but literally means "if you get me, do it the right way!"
                          Don't get me wrong, I knew what it meant, but....
                          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                            Don't get me wrong, I knew what it meant, but....
                            Well slap my cow until the pigs fart!
                            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                              I think it might have been a thing in 2016 in some places - but Trump's base is now loud and proud. I don't think the Trump stigma is much of a factor anymore.

                              And we will indeed see after the debate(s). Actually, we will see on 11/3!
                              I don't see the logic here. Trump's base has always been loud and proud. I'm talking about independents and swing voters. I think it would be even more of a stigma now than before because we've had more than three years of Orange Man Bad pounded to us in the press. But Trump didn't bring us to any new wars. He was right about the borders. He was right about the China threat all along. The economy (at least how it was perceived by the public) was doing well. And this was in spite of three years of ongoing investigations that turned out to be fruitless, time wasting and costly. And when the economy faltered because of a pandemic, he actually implemented policies that even Bernie and Yang supported. I don't see any reason folks would be any less persuaded than they were in 2016, in fact, they'd be more persuaded to vote in his favor, only much more reluctant to admit it because of all the continuous bad press.

                              Okay, let's see your one page monologue.

                              Comment

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