2020 Election Polling

[rogue06]

My second post was better...


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[JimL]

So far, the 2020 election polls are generally trending in what I would consider to be the "right" or "good" direction, especially in some of the more important swing states. Of course we still have over six months to 11/3. Some of the polls, when you factor in the margin of error, show a tight race in some of these states. While that still surprises/dismays me given what it says about our country, I am still holding on to serious hopes for 11/3.

• FL - 4/24 (today) - Fox News - Biden +3
• PA - 4/23 - Susquehanna - Biden +6
• FL - 4/22 - Quinnipiac - Biden +4
• PA - 4/22 - Fox News - Biden +8
• MI - 4/22 - Fox News - Biden +8

Even some red states like NC are in play (though that poll is older).

Encouraging...

I wonder how that poll would look if you factor in voter suppression and the Russian interference/fake news that people are still eating up.

[carpedm9587]

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Thanks!

[lilpixieofterror]

Ouch....


Mike Garcia
Rep.
79,543 56.0%
Christy Smith
Dem.
62,456 44.0

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-election.html

[carpedm9587]

Ouch....

Mike Garcia
Rep.
79,543 56.0%
Christy Smith
Dem.
62,456 44.0

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-election.html

I'm not surprised and not sure why this is an "ouch." The last time the seat was in Democrat hands was 1990. Since then, Republicans have consistently won it with 20+ point margins, so it is considered a "red" district. It went Democrat in 2018 by only 9 points. The Democrat who took it was accused of improprieties and left office in disgrace. That the district reverted to red was predictable. That they did so by only 12 points is less than the usual gap in that district meaning there is still a general shift to the left, just not enough to swing this red district.

We'll see the same thing happen in Alabama with Doug Jones in the Senate.

Does this mean that the energy of 2018 has dissipated? It's possible. But the fact that the Democrat in this district left office in disgrace creates a unique circumstance that makes this a doubtful bellweather for the rest of the nation.

[lilpixieofterror]

I'm not surprised and not sure why this is an "ouch." The last time the seat was in Democrat hands was 1990. Since then, Republicans have consistently won it with 20+ point margins, so it is considered a "red" district. It went Democrat in 2018 by only 9 points. The Democrat who took it was accused of improprieties and left office in disgrace. That the district reverted to red was predictable. That they did so by only 12 points is less than the usual gap in that district meaning there is still a general shift to the left, just not enough to swing this red district.

We'll see the same thing happen in Alabama with Doug Jones in the Senate.

Does this mean that the energy of 2018 has dissipated? It's possible. But the fact that the Democrat in this district left office in disgrace creates a unique circumstance that makes this a doubtful bellweather for the rest of the nation.

The NYT seemed to have thought the two special elections were a big deal. The fact remains if everyone was blaming Trump for what is going on, this should had been a Democrat victory or at least a lot closer than it is. I have a lot of family in California (many who are lifelong democrats) that are about done with endless lockdowns. You can spin it however you want Carp, but that isn’t good news.

[carpedm9587]

The NYT seemed to have thought the two special elections were a big deal.

I do not have a NYT subscription, so I cannot see your linked article. I suspect it's an opinion piece or an analysis piece. Even if it's not, since when did the opinion of the NYT become determinant of anything?

The fact remains if everyone was blaming Trump for what is going on, this should had been a Democrat victory or at least a lot closer than it is. I have a lot of family in California (many who are lifelong democrats) that are about done with endless lockdowns. You can spin it however you want Carp, but that isn’t good news.

I don't know why you think that. A heavily red district reverted to somewhat heavily red in the face of a disgraced Democrat leaving office. It doesn't seem all that amazing to me. I was expecting it to flip back. ANd I have no clue what your family in California has to do with any of this, unless they happen to live in this district?

[lilpixieofterror]

I do not have a NYT subscription, so I cannot see your linked article. I suspect it's an opinion piece or an analysis piece. Even if it's not, since when did the opinion of the NYT become determinant of anything?

The NYT is a well known liberal source, not a conservative one. Fact remains,

If the majority of people were blaming Trump, you’d see democrats winning or at least getting closer. An over 10 point gap, isn’t good.

I don't know why you think that. A heavily red district reverted to somewhat heavily red in the face of a disgraced Democrat leaving office. It doesn't seem all that amazing to me. I was expecting it to flip back. ANd I have no clue what your family in California has to do with any of this, unless they happen to live in this district?

I lived in California, for nearly 20 years and have some very strong liberal family living there. They are about done with their governor (some of whom, voted for him). That isn’t a good sign, heading into a presidential election.

[carpedm9587]

The NYT is a well known liberal source, not a conservative one. Fact remains,

If the majority of people were blaming Trump, you’d see democrats winning or at least getting closer. An over 10 point gap, isn’t good.

From this I summarize, "Pix thinks this is not good." Your POV is duly noted.

I lived in California, for nearly 20 years and have some very strong liberal family living there. They are about done with their governor (some of whom, voted for him). That isn’t a good sign, heading into a presidential election.

It is not clear to me that your family's opinion is all that germane to the issue. As best I can tell, they might represent 0.000001% of the voter base? I think I'll need a bit more than "Pix's family" to become concerned.

I'll leave the rest of this to you.

[lilpixieofterror]

From this I summarize, "Pix thinks this is not good." Your POV is duly noted.

Which is based on the opinions of liberal media.

It is not clear to me that your family's opinion is all that germane to the issue. As best I can tell, they might represent 0.000001% of the voter base? I think I'll need a bit more than "Pix's family" to become concerned.

Look at the news coming out of the state. Tesla is reopening their factory and was daring the state to come and make them close. It appears a compromise was made between the two, but expect this to become more common.
Another example where I grew up:

https://www.vvng.com/reopening-of-th...s-controversy/

Believe what you want though. Democrats are doing an awesome job shooting themselves, in the foot.

I'll leave the rest of this to you.

See you next post.

[carpedm9587]

Well, not exactly an election poll (though RCP has started to put the electoral projections online), but Trump's approval rating has dropped significantly since the mid-point of the pandemic when he hit his highest rating since the day of (and after) his inauguration - the only two days when he had a positive overall rating, just barely. Since then he has been underwater by as much as 21 points (December of 2017). In the midst of the pandemic, he got that "rally around the president" surge that took him to underwater by a mere 2.1 points. But now he is back to being underwater by 10 points.

As he continues to do stupid things - like the whole Scarborough conspiracy theory - I have high hopes he will continue to erode his numbers. Of course, he can only sink so far since he will pretty much never lose his "base," but it is that mid-tier, moderate voter that he needs. We are just a hair over 5 months out - which is still a while, but he is on a downward trajectory in several important states, and even Texas is in the "toss-up" category (though I sincerely doubt he will lose Texas).

Hope continues...

[Cow Poke]

Well, not exactly an election poll (though RCP...

What's this R you're pasting in front of my name?!?!?!?!

[Terraceth]

What's this R you're pasting in front of my name?!?!?!?!

RCP presumably stands for Real Clear Politics.

[Cow Poke]

RCP presumably stands for Real Clear Politics.

Yeah, I was kidding. I like to poke Carpe occasionally. Even though he's wrong about 99.97% of the things he posts, I think down deep he's a decent enough fella.

[carpedm9587]

What's this R you're pasting in front of my name?!?!?!?!

Reject?

Recycled?

Round?

Runt?

(you lobbed that far too lightly...)