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Thread: 2020 Election Polling

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    2020 Election Polling

    So far, the 2020 election polls are generally trending in what I would consider to be the "right" or "good" direction, especially in some of the more important swing states. Of course we still have over six months to 11/3. Some of the polls, when you factor in the margin of error, show a tight race in some of these states. While that still surprises/dismays me given what it says about our country, I am still holding on to serious hopes for 11/3.

    • FL - 4/24 (today) - Fox News - Biden +3
    • PA - 4/23 - Susquehanna - Biden +6
    • FL - 4/22 - Quinnipiac - Biden +4
    • PA - 4/22 - Fox News - Biden +8
    • MI - 4/22 - Fox News - Biden +8


    Even some red states like NC are in play (though that poll is older).

    Encouraging...
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    Professor KingsGambit's Avatar
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    From an objective point of view, this situation seems okay for Trump. I think Trump is essentially a known quantity at this point in time, whereas Biden isn't. There's really nothing Trump can say or do to whittle away at his base of support at this time (unless he did something stupid like go on a Twitter rant about Christianity should be banned or something), but Biden still has the ability to lose support, especially with questions about his health lingering. He's not the type of candidate who can galvanize excitement.

    Then again, think about how long ago Super Tuesday was. It was only about six weeks ago, but it seems like an eternity given what has transpired since then. Absolutely anything could happen over the next five months, so
    "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

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    tWebber
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    I'll wait until after the first debate.
    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingsGambit View Post
    From an objective point of view, this situation seems okay for Trump. I think Trump is essentially a known quantity at this point in time, whereas Biden isn't. There's really nothing Trump can say or do to whittle away at his base of support at this time (unless he did something stupid like go on a Twitter rant about Christianity should be banned or something), but Biden still has the ability to lose support, especially with questions about his health lingering. He's not the type of candidate who can galvanize excitement.

    Then again, think about how long ago Super Tuesday was. It was only about six weeks ago, but it seems like an eternity given what has transpired since then. Absolutely anything could happen over the next five months, so
    Oh there is no doubt Trump's base is rock solid. Likewise, I think those who share my antipathy for Trump are just as rock solid, and our numbers seem to be about equivalent to the size of the base. The real question is what happens to the gap in between. They are the ones who will decide the election.

    And I agree that we are 6+ months out from 11/3, so there is lots of time for pretty much anything to happen. Heck, 2016 taught us that one week out is still a lot of time for stuff to happen.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    I'll wait until after the first debate.
    Don't get me wrong - I recognize the time element. I thought it would be a good idea to have a thread that monitors and tracks trending and polling for the election. Covid is a significant factor in all of this, and that situation is far from played out. But if Trump keeps looking like the idiot he looked like with the "disinfectant" and "sunlight" comments, the tide will likely continue to shift against him. And I've been looking at the impact that many of his fiscal policies have had on Midwest farmers and the industrial/manufacturing sector, and I have to wonder just how solid his support is going to be in that base. He doesn't need to lose a lot to lose everything.
    Last edited by carpedm9587; 04-24-2020 at 12:44 PM.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    Don't get me wrong - I recognize the time element. I thought it would be a good idea to have a thread that monitors and tracks trending and polling for the election. Covid is a sigificant factor in all of this, and that situation is far from played out.
    The problem with polls in regards to Trump, and hence the problem getting accurate data in the general is the Trump stigma (those who might support his policies, but because of his character and bad press they're reluctant to admit this publicly). I believe that's a real thing. But like I said, we'll see after the debate.
    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

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    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    The only poll that matters is the one that happens on election day.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    The problem with polls in regards to Trump, and hence the problem getting accurate data in the general is the Trump stigma (those who might support his policies, but because of his character and bad press they're reluctant to admit this publicly). I believe that's a real thing. But like I said, we'll see after the debate.
    I think it might have been a thing in 2016 in some places - but Trump's base is now loud and proud. I don't think the Trump stigma is much of a factor anymore.

    And we will indeed see after the debate(s). Actually, we will see on 11/3!
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    My prediction is Trump will win and you will continue to live here in the USA, just like all of the other whiners who claimed they would move to Canada if Trump won last time.

    america-so great haters wont leave.jpg

  11. #10
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    Don't get me wrong -
    I always thought was an odd expression. Many of us can 'get wrong' all by ourselves, and don't need outside help.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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