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Thread: 2020 Election Polling

  1. #61
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Yeah, I was kidding. I like to poke Carpe occasionally. Even though he's wrong about 99.97% of the things he posts, I think down deep he's a decent enough fella.
    The student with the wrong answer commonly thinks it's everyone else that is wrong...
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  2. #62
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    The student with the wrong answer commonly thinks it's everyone else that is wrong...
    Laughing -- I wasn't quite awake yet when I read that, so it took a minute. Happy Tuesday to you.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  3. #63
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Laughing -- I wasn't quite awake yet when I read that, so it took a minute. Happy Tuesday to you.
    And to you, sir!
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    I continue to monitor the polls, and I find this very encouraging. At the time of this polling, Trump's aggregate approval rating is -10.9 points (43.6 approval, 54.5 disapprove). The last time his numbers were that low was November 6, 2019, which means ALL of the "rally around the president" bump that COVID-19 gave him has now eroded, and then some. He continues to polarize and appeal narrowly to his base.

    AFAICT, his best hope is if COVID-19 does NOT re-surge and businesses open back up across the board. If that happens, unemployment will likely plummet and the economy will likely see a resurgence to which he can point as a success. If, however, pre-mature re-opening causes COVID-19 to re-surge and either extends the time required to re-open or kills significantly more people, I think he is very likely toast in November. That coupled with the broad based unhappiness with this man will likely spell his end.

    We are just a tad over 5 months out from 11/3. Still plenty of time for things to happen and many unknowns. But I like the trend lines.

    ETA: RCP has also begun posting their electoral map analysis. The interesting (and encouraging) thing here is the number, and specific identity of states in the "Toss-Up" category. Texas? Georgia? North Carolina? Iowa? These are historically either solid or likely red states. How on earth can they be "toss-ups?" Again, still plenty of time - but I like the trend lines.
    Last edited by carpedm9587; 05-28-2020 at 07:33 AM.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  5. #65
    Professor KingsGambit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    ETA: RCP has also begun posting their electoral map analysis. The interesting (and encouraging) thing here is the number, and specific identity of states in the "Toss-Up" category. Texas? Georgia? North Carolina? Iowa? These are historically either solid or likely red states. How on earth can they be "toss-ups?" Again, still plenty of time - but I like the trend lines.
    Iowa is historically famous for being a swing state. North Carolina also has a history of being close (nearly a quarter of its population is black; there are some strong Democratic strongholds there.)

    Texas... that one I will believe when I see it.
    "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingsGambit View Post
    Iowa is historically famous for being a swing state. North Carolina also has a history of being close (nearly a quarter of its population is black; there are some strong Democratic strongholds there.)

    Texas... that one I will believe when I see it.
    Interesting. I checked and both IA and NC have a CPVI of R+3. GA is R+5 and TX is R+8.

    Ohio is also R+3 and widely considered a swing state, so your analysis of IA and NC is correct and my original comments were wrong.

    AZ is the other R+5 state and is now widely considered a swing state, so it looks like GA is going in that direction.

    The other R+8 state is SC, and they are rated as "Leans Republican," which is the category adjacent to "toss-up." Bedo's numbers in Texas were actually pretty amazing. He came within a couple points of unseating Cruz. Texas appears to be shifting. It would be just amazing for it to go blue in 2020! Go Texas!!!
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  7. #67
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    ...so your analysis of IA and NC is correct and my original comments were wrong...
    THIS, folks, should be duly noted and modeled after.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  8. #68
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    ....It would be just amazing for it to go blue in 2020! Go Texas!!!
    THIS, folks, is dalgurn blasted dadburned foolhearty wrongheaded imbecilic birdbrained HERESY and should be moderated! Somebody git a rope!
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  9. #69
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    THIS, folks, should be duly noted and modeled after.
    I find it quite amazing that the "usual characters" continually characterize me as unwilling to acknowledge error. When someone makes the case - I have no problem saying "I was wrong." I'd rather get the right information than continue to pass on the wrong information. Hopefully, ALL professional educators have that philosophy.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  10. #70
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    THIS, folks, is dalgurn blasted dadburned foolhearty wrongheaded imbecilic birdbrained HERESY and should be moderated! Somebody git a rope!
    Oh I am SO going to remind you of this if Texas goes blue on 11/3...
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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