Announcement

Collapse

Civics 101 Guidelines

Want to argue about politics? Healthcare reform? Taxes? Governments? You've come to the right place!

Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
See more
See less

Will COVID 19 return?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Will COVID 19 return?

    There are a lot of predictions and conjecture as to whether COVID 19 return in the Fall or later. Part of the conjecture is that the virus is sensitive to heat and humidity. This is a maybe, because Singapore relaxed mitigation measures and the virus returned despite the heat and humidity of Singapore. SARS of 2003 did not return. I believe it is a possibility, but not as great as many would predict. It is true H1N1 pandemics and annual returns have host animals that they are endmic to hop back and forth in cycles, and the pandemics did have multiple infection curves. I believe a return is dependent on the CVID 19 finding another host to hop around with, mutate and return to the human host. Maybe cats? There are millions of cats.Another question; How well will COVID 19 mutate and change to adapt to another cycle as H1N1 does?
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-24-2020, 08:53 PM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  • #2
    Yes it will return. That is what Fauci keeps reminding us. Probably 6 months, maybe a year.

    Comment


    • #3
      COVID will return prior to that, in July, because that's when Giant Microbes releases its Coronavirus plush toy:

      covid-sample.jpg

      https://www.giantmicrobes.com/us/pro...ronavirus.html

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
        There are a lot of predictions and conjecture as to whether COVID 19 return in the Fall or later. Part of the conjecture is that the virus is sensitive to heat and humidity. This is a maybe, because Singapore relaxed mitigation measures and the virus returned despite the heat and humidity of Singapore. SARS of 2003 did not return. I believe it is a possibility, but not as great as many would predict. It is true H1N1 pandemics and annual returns have host animals that they are endmic to hop back and forth in cycles, and the pandemics did have multiple infection curves. I believe a return is dependent on the CVID 19 finding another host to hop around with, mutate and return to the human host. Maybe cats? There are millions of cats.Another question; How well will COVID 19 mutate and change to adapt to another cycle as H1N1 does?
        Will return? Who says its going anywhere before the Fall or later? You people are so screwed.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
          Yes it will return. That is what Fauci keeps reminding us. Probably 6 months, maybe a year.
          I do not believe that Fausi presents a complete factual support for his assertion that answers all the questions and possible alternative.

          Just 'Fauci says' is not a meaningful response.
          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

          go with the flow the river knows . . .

          Frank

          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Zara View Post
            Will return? Who says its going anywhere before the Fall or later? You people are so screwed.
            Needs clarification. It does not address the questions in this thread.
            Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
            Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
            But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

            go with the flow the river knows . . .

            Frank

            I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Terraceth View Post
              COVID will return prior to that, in July, because that's when Giant Microbes releases its Coronavirus plush toy:

              [ATTACH=CONFIG]44205[/ATTACH]

              https://www.giantmicrobes.com/us/pro...ronavirus.html
              Copyrighted return?
              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

              go with the flow the river knows . . .

              Frank

              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                Yes it will return. That is what Fauci keeps reminding us. Probably 6 months, maybe a year.

                If the COVID 19 finds an alternate host like, ah . . . cats and can mutate effectively to return. More research like is being done with flus to determine the mutation rate and diversity.
                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                Frank

                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                  I do not believe that Fausi presents a complete factual support for his assertion that answers all the questions and possible alternative.

                  Just 'Fauci says' is not a meaningful response.
                  But he "says it" with such authority!


                  The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                    I do not believe that Fausi presents a complete factual support for his assertion that answers all the questions and possible alternative.

                    Just 'Fauci says' is not a meaningful response.
                    He's the decision maker here. Not real science. He does not need a reason based in science.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Zara View Post
                      Will return? Who says its going anywhere before the Fall or later? You people are so screwed.
                      COVID 19 is a coronavirus like all zoonotic viruses, and they all follow a bell curve pattern for the first infection to the last. Many are seasonal, but not all. Some return in a cyclic pattern, and some come and go and do not return like the 2003 SARS. The infection bell curves of the earliest countries infected follows a natural path. The later countries infected like in the West are following the same path.
                      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                      go with the flow the river knows . . .

                      Frank

                      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                        There are a lot of predictions and conjecture as to whether COVID 19 return in the Fall or later. Part of the conjecture is that the virus is sensitive to heat and humidity. This is a maybe, because Singapore relaxed mitigation measures and the virus returned despite the heat and humidity of Singapore. SARS of 2003 did not return. I believe it is a possibility, but not as great as many would predict. It is true H1N1 pandemics and annual returns have host animals that they are endmic to hop back and forth in cycles, and the pandemics did have multiple infection curves. I believe a return is dependent on the CVID 19 finding another host to hop around with, mutate and return to the human host. Maybe cats? There are millions of cats.Another question; How well will COVID 19 mutate and change to adapt to another cycle as H1N1 does?
                        You cannot "return" if you've never left.
                        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                          You cannot "return" if you've never left.
                          The pattern of zoonotic viruses that have cycles with other hosts do end the infection cycle, but take up other hosts, mutate and diversify, and then return to the host as in flus. The 2003 SARS came and went, and did not return. The COVID 19 is a cousin of the 2003 SARS. The COVID 19 infection in China is following a natural bell curve decreasing in numbers and fatalities.

                          We need more data on the mutation rate of COVID 19 mutation rates as well as the related coronaviruses from China, and other regions where the animals originate from the Wuhan market. Mutation rates are one factor that influences whether a virus will return, and if it returns how severe it will be. Flus aggressively mutate and diversify seasonally.
                          Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-25-2020, 02:14 PM.
                          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                          go with the flow the river knows . . .

                          Frank

                          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                            The pattern of zoonotic viruses that have cycles with other hosts do end the infection cycle, but take up other hosts, mutate and diversify, and then return to the host as in flus. The 2003 SARS came and went, and did not return. The COVID 19 is a cousin of the 2003 SARS. The COVID 19 infection in China is following a natural bell curve decreasing in numbers and fatalities.
                            It's not clear to me that we can trust any numbers coming out of China at this point. I'm not even seeing their testing numbers reported on worldometer or JHUM.

                            Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                            We need more data on the mutation rate of COVID 19 mutation rates as well as the related coronaviruses from China, and other regions where the animals originate from the Wuhan market. Mutation rates are one factor that influences whether a virus will return, and if it returns how severe it will be. Flus aggressively mutate and diversify seasonally.
                            More data is most certainly needed, which makes this thread somewhat premature. Especially given that we do not yet have evidence that someone who has had the virus is subsequently immune to it. That assumption underlies all of the plans to re-open the economy and the entire concept of herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine.
                            Last edited by carpedm9587; 04-25-2020, 02:26 PM.
                            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                              It's not clear to me that we can trust any numbers coming out of China at this point. I'm not even seeing their testing numbers reported on worldometer or JHUM.
                              I do not trust the data from Chima, because it is obvious that the early figures were about 50%, twice the number of burial urns ordered for Wuhan than the Chines first estimates, but nonetheless the general bell shaped course of the virus is confirmed and the infection of other countries follow the same pattern in proportion to their later starting point. I use: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus for comparing daily antotal figures worldwide, and the natural bell curve of the course of the infection is consistent.


                              More data is most certainly needed, which makes this thread somewhat premature. Especially given that we do not yet have evidence that someone who has had the virus is subsequently immune to it. That assumption underlies all of the plans to re-open the economy and the entire concept of herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine.
                              There is at present absolutely no evidence of any reinfect as reported. I do not negate the possibility, but at present no evidence. It you cannot provide any other evidence than conjecture that is all it is conjecture.

                              These conclusions remain based on the evidence:

                              COVID 19 is a coronavirus like all zoonotic viruses, and they all follow a bell curve pattern for the first infection to the last. Many are seasonal, but not all. Some return in a cyclic pattern, and some come and go and do not return like the 2003 SARS. The infection bell curves of the earliest countries infected follows a natural path. The later countries infected like in the West are following the same path.

                              I will stand on my original prediction and the trends are following what I predicted. There will likely be a prolonged infection, but still following the bell curve pattern.
                              Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-25-2020, 04:59 PM.
                              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                              go with the flow the river knows . . .

                              Frank

                              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                              Comment

                              Related Threads

                              Collapse

                              Topics Statistics Last Post
                              Started by little_monkey, Yesterday, 04:19 PM
                              16 responses
                              148 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post One Bad Pig  
                              Started by whag, 03-26-2024, 04:38 PM
                              53 responses
                              395 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post Mountain Man  
                              Started by rogue06, 03-26-2024, 11:45 AM
                              25 responses
                              113 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post rogue06
                              by rogue06
                               
                              Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 09:21 AM
                              33 responses
                              197 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post Roy
                              by Roy
                               
                              Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 08:34 AM
                              84 responses
                              365 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post JimL
                              by JimL
                               
                              Working...
                              X