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Thread: Will COVID 19 return?

  1. #11
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zara View Post
    Will return? Who says its going anywhere before the Fall or later? You people are so screwed.
    COVID 19 is a coronavirus like all zoonotic viruses, and they all follow a bell curve pattern for the first infection to the last. Many are seasonal, but not all. Some return in a cyclic pattern, and some come and go and do not return like the 2003 SARS. The infection bell curves of the earliest countries infected follows a natural path. The later countries infected like in the West are following the same path.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shunyadragon View Post
    There are a lot of predictions and conjecture as to whether COVID 19 return in the Fall or later. Part of the conjecture is that the virus is sensitive to heat and humidity. This is a maybe, because Singapore relaxed mitigation measures and the virus returned despite the heat and humidity of Singapore. SARS of 2003 did not return. I believe it is a possibility, but not as great as many would predict. It is true H1N1 pandemics and annual returns have host animals that they are endmic to hop back and forth in cycles, and the pandemics did have multiple infection curves. I believe a return is dependent on the CVID 19 finding another host to hop around with, mutate and return to the human host. Maybe cats? There are millions of cats.Another question; How well will COVID 19 mutate and change to adapt to another cycle as H1N1 does?
    You cannot "return" if you've never left.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  3. Amen Roy amen'd this post.
  4. #13
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    You cannot "return" if you've never left.
    The pattern of zoonotic viruses that have cycles with other hosts do end the infection cycle, but take up other hosts, mutate and diversify, and then return to the host as in flus. The 2003 SARS came and went, and did not return. The COVID 19 is a cousin of the 2003 SARS. The COVID 19 infection in China is following a natural bell curve decreasing in numbers and fatalities.

    We need more data on the mutation rate of COVID 19 mutation rates as well as the related coronaviruses from China, and other regions where the animals originate from the Wuhan market. Mutation rates are one factor that influences whether a virus will return, and if it returns how severe it will be. Flus aggressively mutate and diversify seasonally.
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-25-2020 at 12:14 PM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  5. #14
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shunyadragon View Post
    The pattern of zoonotic viruses that have cycles with other hosts do end the infection cycle, but take up other hosts, mutate and diversify, and then return to the host as in flus. The 2003 SARS came and went, and did not return. The COVID 19 is a cousin of the 2003 SARS. The COVID 19 infection in China is following a natural bell curve decreasing in numbers and fatalities.
    It's not clear to me that we can trust any numbers coming out of China at this point. I'm not even seeing their testing numbers reported on worldometer or JHUM.

    Quote Originally Posted by shunyadragon View Post
    We need more data on the mutation rate of COVID 19 mutation rates as well as the related coronaviruses from China, and other regions where the animals originate from the Wuhan market. Mutation rates are one factor that influences whether a virus will return, and if it returns how severe it will be. Flus aggressively mutate and diversify seasonally.
    More data is most certainly needed, which makes this thread somewhat premature. Especially given that we do not yet have evidence that someone who has had the virus is subsequently immune to it. That assumption underlies all of the plans to re-open the economy and the entire concept of herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine.
    Last edited by carpedm9587; 04-25-2020 at 12:26 PM.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  6. #15
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    It's not clear to me that we can trust any numbers coming out of China at this point. I'm not even seeing their testing numbers reported on worldometer or JHUM.
    I do not trust the data from Chima, because it is obvious that the early figures were about 50%, twice the number of burial urns ordered for Wuhan than the Chines first estimates, but nonetheless the general bell shaped course of the virus is confirmed and the infection of other countries follow the same pattern in proportion to their later starting point. I use: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus for comparing daily antotal figures worldwide, and the natural bell curve of the course of the infection is consistent.


    More data is most certainly needed, which makes this thread somewhat premature. Especially given that we do not yet have evidence that someone who has had the virus is subsequently immune to it. That assumption underlies all of the plans to re-open the economy and the entire concept of herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine.
    There is at present absolutely no evidence of any reinfect as reported. I do not negate the possibility, but at present no evidence. It you cannot provide any other evidence than conjecture that is all it is conjecture.

    These conclusions remain based on the evidence:

    COVID 19 is a coronavirus like all zoonotic viruses, and they all follow a bell curve pattern for the first infection to the last. Many are seasonal, but not all. Some return in a cyclic pattern, and some come and go and do not return like the 2003 SARS. The infection bell curves of the earliest countries infected follows a natural path. The later countries infected like in the West are following the same path.

    I will stand on my original prediction and the trends are following what I predicted. There will likely be a prolonged infection, but still following the bell curve pattern.
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-25-2020 at 02:59 PM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  7. #16
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terraceth View Post
    COVID will return prior to that, in July, because that's when Giant Microbes releases its Coronavirus plush toy:

    Attachment 44205

    https://www.giantmicrobes.com/us/pro...ronavirus.html
    But will the Mexican beer come back?

    Maybe it says something about we moderns that the negative perceptions centered on the beer label such that they stopped selling a venerable brand with otherwise positive views.

  8. #17
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    It's not clear to me that we can trust any numbers coming out of China at this point. I'm not even seeing their testing numbers reported on worldometer or JHUM.



    More data is most certainly needed, which makes this thread somewhat premature. Especially given that we do not yet have evidence that someone who has had the virus is subsequently immune to it. That assumption underlies all of the plans to re-open the economy and the entire concept of herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine.
    I follow the numbers and the infection curve in each country and region methodically, comparing this with previous pandemic and epidemic virus patterns, and there are distinct patterns of how the virus progresses, and they all still follow a basic natural bell curve pattern that is predictable. The following are some of my conclusions concerning the actual evidence from different countries and regions.

    The first and most important is the natural bell curve is not symmetrical. The onset from the spread appears to be gradual, but deceptive, because of the large percentage of infected that are asymptomatic and mild symptoms. There is good evidence that the recovery side of the curve is slower and longer then a symmetrical curve. One possible reason for this is the infection of many that do not have immunity that were previously geographically isolated. The data from both France and China are good examples. See the following that shows the data and graph for France: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...rus-cases.html. I see the possibility of the spread of the COVID 19 into regions previous not impacted.

    The most interesting problem is the fact that the USA has over one-forth of the world's total fatalities. The reason for this needs more information as the the pandemic progressive.

    Another country that was infected late, and proactively and aggressively implemented mitigation measures is South Africa. On this point I will have to wait and see because it is early in their infection.

    As far as reinfection of those with antibodies, this remains a very hypothetical possibility, and not the pattern of zoonotic virus in history. There is the distinctive possibility of short term rebound of the virus in patients that have not fully recovered including secondary infections like pneumonia. The history of viruses is that you do not have reinfection on the short term, but as a virus mutates, and comes back in another later cycle antibodies may only provide limited protection. In flus some antibody immunity and herd immunity may reduce the regional infection rate for generations.
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-26-2020 at 08:05 AM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  9. #18
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    There have been many predictions and a few divining rod estimates concerning the fate of the COVID 19 pandemic. I will review my predictions and add a few which I consider good news.

    I predicted that the bell curve the bell curve of the number of infection cases and fatalities would peak in late April to early May centered on May. It appears to be late April but with a slow prolonged recovery, which is not the best news. In the pronged recovery I believe there will likely be an overlapping curve in larger countries where isolated areas and regions with low and no immunity. This happened in China.

    Despite predictions of a second infection curve in the Fall, like Fauci, I believe there will be none. The reason for this is the low mutation rate of COVID 19. I believe the reason the related SARS 2003 epidemic did not come back is a similar reason. Yes, some sources as cited below conconsider the low mutation rate a blessing that a better chance of having an effective vaccine if it comes back.

    The possibility that the COVID 19 virus comes back next year is dependent on finding another animal to hope a ride and mutate. Maybe cats. Maybe yes and maybe no.

    Source: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/low-coronavirus-mutations-mean-hope-for-a-single-vaccine.html



    Low Coronavirus Mutation Rate Gives Researchers Hope for Eventual Vaccine: Report
    By Matt Stieb
    [​IMG]

    As the World Health Organization launches trials for potential treatments for COVID-19, scientists studying the coronavirus are encouraged that its low mutation rate could mean that a single vaccine is possible.

    According to researchers who spoke with the Washington Post, there are only around four to ten genetic differences between the coronavirus strains that have infected Americans and those of the original virus in Wuhan. “That’s a relatively small number of mutations for having passed through a large number of people,” Peter Thielen, a Johns Hopkins molecular geneticist, told the Post. “At this point, the mutation rate of the virus would suggest that the vaccine developed for SARS-CoV-2 would be a single vaccine, rather than a new vaccine every year like the flu vaccine.” Rather, a potential coronavirus vaccine would act more like those for the measles or chicken pox, in which one shot grants immunity for a substantial amount of time.

    According to the current research, the virus that causes COVID-19 has a low “error rate,” meaning that its pace of mutation remains slow despite its rapid spread. Because it remains more or less stable as it travels through hundreds of thousands of patients, researchers state that it is less likely to become more dangerous (or less) as it spreads. “The virus has not mutated to any significant extent,” University of Iowa virologist Stanley Perlman said. “Just one ‘pretty bad’ strain for everybody so far. If it’s still around in a year, by that point we might have some diversity.”

    one biotech firm hopes that trials could be ready as soon as the fall — though more conservative estimates suggest next year at the earliest.

    © Copyright Original Source

    Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-28-2020 at 05:38 PM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  10. #19
    tWebber
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    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...-with-covid-19

    there are 3 coronaviruses ---SARS, (2003) MERS, (2012) and COVID-19.(2019)
    Of these...SARS and MERS are more deadly...but they spread less so death rats can be contained.
    Covid is less deadly than the others but because it spreads rapidly, more people die from it.

    Stats in the linked article.....

  11. #20
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    rough trajectory of new respiratory illnesses....

    Sars (2003)
    Swine Flu/H1N1-2009
    Mers (2012)
    Avian Flu/H5N1-(2013)
    Avian Flu/H7N9 -(2016)
    Covid-19 -(2019)

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