How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?
By Stuart A. Thompson
APRIL 30, 2020
The 12 to 18 month estimates would require bypassing research and beginning Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials while Phase 1 trials are still underway. It would also be necessary to build out currently available factories to scale to begin manufacturing candidate vaccines immediately.
2020-05-03_13-48-55.jpg
This is not hopeful.
By Stuart A. Thompson
APRIL 30, 2020
A vaccine would be the ultimate weapon against the coronavirus and the best route back to normal life. Officials like Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the top infectious disease expert on the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, estimate a vaccine could arrive in at least 12 to 18 months.
The grim truth behind this rosy forecast is that a vaccine probably won’t arrive any time soon. Clinical trials almost never succeed. We’ve never released a coronavirus vaccine for humans before. Our record for developing an entirely new vaccine is at least four years — more time than the public or the economy can tolerate social-distancing orders.
The grim truth behind this rosy forecast is that a vaccine probably won’t arrive any time soon. Clinical trials almost never succeed. We’ve never released a coronavirus vaccine for humans before. Our record for developing an entirely new vaccine is at least four years — more time than the public or the economy can tolerate social-distancing orders.
The 12 to 18 month estimates would require bypassing research and beginning Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials while Phase 1 trials are still underway. It would also be necessary to build out currently available factories to scale to begin manufacturing candidate vaccines immediately.
2020-05-03_13-48-55.jpg
This is not hopeful.
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