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How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?

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  • How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?

    How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?
    By Stuart A. Thompson
    APRIL 30, 2020
    A vaccine would be the ultimate weapon against the coronavirus and the best route back to normal life. Officials like Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the top infectious disease expert on the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, estimate a vaccine could arrive in at least 12 to 18 months.

    The grim truth behind this rosy forecast is that a vaccine probably won’t arrive any time soon. Clinical trials almost never succeed. We’ve never released a coronavirus vaccine for humans before. Our record for developing an entirely new vaccine is at least four years — more time than the public or the economy can tolerate social-distancing orders.

    The 12 to 18 month estimates would require bypassing research and beginning Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials while Phase 1 trials are still underway. It would also be necessary to build out currently available factories to scale to begin manufacturing candidate vaccines immediately.

    2020-05-03_13-48-55.jpg

    This is not hopeful.

  • #2
    how much different a vaccine could it be from a flu vaccine? Same principal and methods.

    Comment


    • #3
      Attempts in the past to make a SARS vaccine have not been successful. The vaccine may seem to work in the initial testing but result in a hyper response to the wild virus. So the cure cause can make someone worse when exposed to the wild virus. No successful coronavirus vaccines have been developed so far.

      Comment


      • #4
        I don't expect a successful vaccine -- meaning one that does not do significantly more harm than good -- in less than five years, if at all.
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        Comment


        • #5
          so I found this article which supports what Juvenal says..

          https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2...razer/12146616

          But I hear they are already in clinical trials for some vaccines so that alone shows the timelines in Juvenal's OP is way off/

          Comment


          • #6
            Yeah, we're looking at three years and that's optimistic

            I'm always still in trouble again

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            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
              Yeah, we're looking at three years and that's optimistic
              If it takes that long, a vaccine will not even be needed. Everyone will have already been infected.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                But I hear they are already in clinical trials for some vaccines so that alone shows the timelines in Juvenal's OP is way off/
                Ya might want to look again, pirate.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                  Ya might want to look again, pirate.
                  Okay, so that's at least half my bad. The first vertical that passes through both Phase I and Phase II is marked "today."

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                    Ya might want to look again, pirate.
                    A Phase 1 clinical trial of an investigational vaccine designed to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is now enrolling older adults. The trial began on March 16, 2020 and was originally designed to enroll 45 healthy volunteers ages 18 to 55 years. Enrollment of the first 45 participants is now complete, and investigators have expanded the trial to enroll an additional 60 participants: 30 adults ages 56 to 70 years and 30 adults ages 71 years and older. The trial is supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health.


                    You were saying?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      BuzzFeed Contributor

                      Anyone wish to volunteer?

                      Here were some volunteers for the swine flu vaccine in 2009. I have copied the start of the article

                      Source: https://www.buzzfeed.com/shaunlintern/these-nhs-staff-were-told-the-swine-flu-vaccine-was-safe



                      These NHS Staff Were Told The Swine Flu Vaccine Was Safe, And Now They're Suffering The Consequences

                      Dozens of NHS workers are fighting for compensation after developing narcolepsy from a swine flu vaccine that was rushed into service without the usual testing when the disease spread across the globe in 2009. They say it has destroyed their careers and their health.
                      ShaunLintern
                      by ShaunLintern

                      When nurse Meleney Gallagher was told to line up with her colleagues on the renal ward at Sunderland Royal Hospital, for her swine flu vaccination, she had no idea the injection she was about to have had not gone through the usual testing process.

                      It had been rushed into circulation after the swine flu virus had swept across the globe in 2009, prompting fears thousands of people could die. From the moment the needle broke Gallagher’s skin, her life would never be the same.

                      “I remember vividly we were all lined up in the corridor and we were told we had to have it. It wasn’t a choice,” she claimed. “I was pressured into it. We were given no information.”

                      The date was 23 November 2009 and Gallagher was one of thousands of NHS staff vaccinated with Pandemrix, a vaccine made by pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).

                      Eight years later, her career in the NHS is a memory and she’s living with incurable, debilitating narcolepsy and suffers from cataplexy, a sudden, uncontrollable loss of muscle tone that can cause her to collapse without warning. Because of her condition, she can no longer work or drive.

                      © Copyright Original Source

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                        You were saying ...
                        ... that the posted chart showed both Phase I and Phase II trials are underway.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                          How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?
                          By Stuart A. Thompson
                          APRIL 30, 2020
                          A vaccine would be the ultimate weapon against the coronavirus and the best route back to normal life. Officials like Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the top infectious disease expert on the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, estimate a vaccine could arrive in at least 12 to 18 months.

                          The grim truth behind this rosy forecast is that a vaccine probably won’t arrive any time soon. Clinical trials almost never succeed. We’ve never released a coronavirus vaccine for humans before. Our record for developing an entirely new vaccine is at least four years — more time than the public or the economy can tolerate social-distancing orders.

                          The 12 to 18 month estimates would require bypassing research and beginning Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials while Phase 1 trials are still underway. It would also be necessary to build out currently available factories to scale to begin manufacturing candidate vaccines immediately.

                          [ATTACH=CONFIG]44339[/ATTACH]

                          This is not hopeful.
                          . . . probably about four to six months after the pandemic has ended. as in the past
                          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                          go with the flow the river knows . . .

                          Frank

                          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

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