CDC Situation Update
The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.
Draft report predicts covid-19 cases will reach 200,000 a day by June 1
CDC document projects as many as 3,000 coronavirus deaths per day by June
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These are log scales* because any epidemic is essentially exponential in both growth and decay. That means the halfway point between 500 and 1000 is √500,0000 or about 700, and that 3,000 is roughly halfway between 700 and 8,500.
The administration is disavowing the report, but there's no disguising the run date in the lower right corner.
I project Dr. Lessler will soon be needing additional security.
*Roughly log scale. The graph incorporates a vertical stretch creating an increasingly larger range between doublings for higher values of cases or deaths. E.g., the vertical distance between 5000 and 10000 is three times that between 500 and 1000 which is three times that between 50 and 100. On a true log scale, these distances would be equal.
The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.
Draft report predicts covid-19 cases will reach 200,000 a day by June 1
CDC document projects as many as 3,000 coronavirus deaths per day by June
2020-05-04_16-50-35.jpg
Page 10 of 19
2020-05-04_16-52-56.jpg
Page 11 of 19
These are log scales* because any epidemic is essentially exponential in both growth and decay. That means the halfway point between 500 and 1000 is √500,0000 or about 700, and that 3,000 is roughly halfway between 700 and 8,500.
The administration is disavowing the report, but there's no disguising the run date in the lower right corner.
The White House and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quickly disavowed the report, though the slides carry the CDC’s logo. The creator of the model said the numbers are unfinished projections shown to the CDC as a work in progress.
The work contained a wide range of possibilities and modeling was not complete, according to Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who created the model.
The work contained a wide range of possibilities and modeling was not complete, according to Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who created the model.
I project Dr. Lessler will soon be needing additional security.
*Roughly log scale. The graph incorporates a vertical stretch creating an increasingly larger range between doublings for higher values of cases or deaths. E.g., the vertical distance between 5000 and 10000 is three times that between 500 and 1000 which is three times that between 50 and 100. On a true log scale, these distances would be equal.
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