CDC Situation Update, New Projections in Internal Report

[mikewhitney]

Thos who are ignorant of history are doomed to repeat it. Had we not quarenteened, put the guidelines into effect, the hospitals would not have had the capacity to care for the sick. They barely have the capacity now. The Spanish flu in 1918 killed some 60 million people and was way beyond what hospitals could handle.

Have you not heard about furloughs of hospital workers across the country?

[/QUOTE]

Have you been listening to FOX NEWS?

No I haven't. What have they been saying?

The point is to stop the spread before those areas where the virus hasn't hit as badly yet end up in the same boat as the harder hit areas.

If the quarantine has not helped yet, it won't help in the future. We cannot risk further destruction of our food and supply distribution process to hit an unachievable goal.

Of course the quarenteen is working as intended. Why would you say it isn't?

There is nothing to show whether it has done anything useful. The views that you are giving here suggest that a quarantine never could help. The disease would propagate no matter what.

So, you think that because there are still more cases, that the quarenteen didn't slow the spread. You think if everyone was walking around as usual, as if there were no virus, that there wouldn't be exponentially more cases.
That doesn't even make sense.

If people want to be careful (as many people will) after the official quarantines have stopped, that is a choice they can make.

As stated before, the number of cases has no meaning. It has to do with the number of suspected cases plus the number of tested cases. These have no statistical meaning since these do no represent methodological approaches to estimating how virulent this might be. It only shows how much effort has been made to test the virus. If a State increases the tests they do each day, then the virus seems to spread that much each day. What does that help?

[shunyadragon]

And is that model dependent upon an opening up of the economy?

I believe the projection is hypothetical and does not match the curve of the course of the viruses in other countries regions and states including NYC.

[shunyadragon]

I believe the projection is hypothetical and does not match the curve of the course of the viruses in other countries regions and states including NYC.

I would like to know the data used to make these projections. I am assuming the red line is some sort of projected path of the pandemic. Again no relationship to the curve of the rest of the countries and regions of the world.e

[shunyadragon]

Based on the data at:https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...WE+GBR+ESP+CHN This link shows my added countries to the graphs. If this one does not work us this: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus?country

Most countries are in the recovery portion of COVID 19 infection curve. Some countries like Russia that were infected late are still rising in the number of confirmed cases. I have watch the USA, but it appears we are over the second hump, I hope, and continuing to decline.

We can follow the guidelines, and reduce the infections and deaths among the elderly and vulnerable, but the COVID 19 deterines the over all curve and it is predicable base on comparing different countries and regions of the world, by the factors previously described and noted in the reference provided.

[JimL]

I would like to know the data used to make these projections. I am assuming the red line is some sort of projected path of the pandemic. Again no relationship to the curve of the rest of the countries and regions of the world.e

I think that until a vaccine is available for the world, each country is on its on with respect to mitigation of the virus. There is no doubt going to be a second wave or an unrelenting continuation of the spread until the entire world is vaccinated. Each country can only continue to mitigate the caseload, can't ever beat it without that vaccine.

[mikewhitney]

I think that until a vaccine is available for the world, each country is on its on with respect to mitigation of the virus. There is no doubt going to be a second wave or an unrelenting continuation of the spread until the entire world is vaccinated. Can only mitigate the caseload, can't ever beat it without that vaccine.

How many enduring, severe viruses have been stopped only by worldwide vaccinations of the majority population?

Why do you think this virus will be so enduring without a vaccine? How can you even predict that?

[Juvenal]

Keep dreaming. The NYT wrote the article characterizing it as something the Trump administration is hiding. When in fact, it is just some internal data that wasn't vetted by anyone official and it doesn't take into account things like mitigation factors in place.

You didn't read the article. It contradicts your statement. You didn't read the post. It includes quotes that contradict your statement. Your claims are fabricated.

You're lying.

I don't care why. You do you, boo boo.

[shunyadragon]

I think that until a vaccine is available for the world, each country is on its on with respect to mitigation of the virus. There is no doubt going to be a second wave or an unrelenting continuation of the spread until the entire world is vaccinated. Each country can only continue to mitigate the caseload, can't ever beat it without that vaccine.

I do nor support the "There is no doubt going to be a second wave or an unrelenting continuation of the spread until the entire world is vaccinated." beyond the overlying 'second bell curve' that is seen in the recovery slope of some countries that have passed the peak.

Do you consider the hump or the overlying bell cure found in China and South Korea the "second wave?"I did predict a prolonged recovery due to the spread of COVID 19 into isolated populations not yet exposed to the virus and this trend is apparent in the actual data.

Actually the possibility of a vaccine is somewhat down the road like 3 to 6 months.

[Sparko]

You didn't read the article. It contradicts your statement. You didn't read the post. It includes quotes that contradict your statement. Your claims are fabricated.

You're lying.

I don't care why. You do you, boo boo.

I can't read the articles (NYT and WP) because they are behind a pay wall. I am using the information that the White House has released in their response.

https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...00-deaths-week

[shunyadragon]

I can't read the articles (NYT and WP) because they are behind a pay wall. I am using the information that the White House has released in their response.

https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...00-deaths-week

It would help to read the posts even though do not understand the graphs.

Based on the facts of the current trends by 'scientific' sources, the trend in fatalities is decreasing in the USA, and when comparing the course of the viruses in other countries and regions the answer is no and Trumps figures are exaggerated and have no basis in the evidence. Russia was infect late and is probably the only large country in the world showing an increas in cases and fatalities.

Still waiting for Pompeo . . .

[shunyadragon]

How many enduring, severe viruses have been stopped only by worldwide vaccinations of the majority population?

Why do you think this virus will be so enduring without a vaccine? How can you even predict that?

Actually seasonal zoonotic viruses like flus are not stopped, but moderated by vaccinations that reduce the cases and fatalities.

Without a vaccine the virus takes its nature course as in the past. We can reduce the cases and fatalities by various methods, but the virus is in control.

[mikewhitney]

Actually seasonal zoonotic viruses like flus are not stopped, but moderated by vaccinations that reduce the cases and fatalities.

Without a vaccine the virus takes its nature course as in the past. We can reduce the cases and fatalities by various methods, but the virus is in control.

Again, I ask "How many enduring, severe viruses have been stopped only by worldwide vaccinations of the majority population?"

[shunyadragon]

Again, I ask "How many enduring, severe viruses have been stopped only by worldwide vaccinations of the majority population?"

As far as zoonotic viruses, none

[Juvenal]

I can't read the articles (NYT and WP) because they are behind a pay wall.

No they're not.

[Juvenal]

No they're not.

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