What are the ways out of this pandemic? What's the eventual end-game?
This thread is to discuss the possible ways, how likely they are, and what needs to happen for them to come about, and the timeframe they might happen in.
I can think of only four:
'Herd immunity'
Diagnose and cure
We develop ways to make early identification of infected people, along with an effective way to treat them so that they get better, and don't infect others. Presumably this would involve advances in testing, and also in antibody tests, plus some form of anti-viral drug(s). If we could get this going across the world... ...problem solved.
Vaccination
We develop an effective vaccine, and vaccinate most of the world's population. Problem solved. Potential stumbling blocks: We haven't had much success in making effective and safe vaccines for coronaviruses.
Virus peters out
the virus 'dies off' on it's own. Apparently this can be a thing, and no-one quite knows why or how it happens. Is this maybe related to herd immunity?
Right now, I think we're most likely headed for herd immunity - the virus will eventually spread everywhere, and kill those who are most susceptible, eventually becoming a background illness.
This thread is for posters to add any other ways we could see the pandemic end, more information / corrections about what I've posted, thoughts on the likelihood of each scenario etc. It is NOT for politicking or name-calling.
This thread is to discuss the possible ways, how likely they are, and what needs to happen for them to come about, and the timeframe they might happen in.
I can think of only four:
'Herd immunity'
Herd immunity, or community immunity, is when a large part of the population of an area is immune to a specific disease. If enough people are resistant to the cause of a disease, such as a virus or bacteria, it has nowhere to go.
While not every single individual may be immune, the group as a whole has protection. This is because there are fewer high-risk people overall. The infection rates drop, and the disease peters out.
While not every single individual may be immune, the group as a whole has protection. This is because there are fewer high-risk people overall. The infection rates drop, and the disease peters out.
Diagnose and cure
We develop ways to make early identification of infected people, along with an effective way to treat them so that they get better, and don't infect others. Presumably this would involve advances in testing, and also in antibody tests, plus some form of anti-viral drug(s). If we could get this going across the world... ...problem solved.
Vaccination
We develop an effective vaccine, and vaccinate most of the world's population. Problem solved. Potential stumbling blocks: We haven't had much success in making effective and safe vaccines for coronaviruses.
Virus peters out
the virus 'dies off' on it's own. Apparently this can be a thing, and no-one quite knows why or how it happens. Is this maybe related to herd immunity?
Right now, I think we're most likely headed for herd immunity - the virus will eventually spread everywhere, and kill those who are most susceptible, eventually becoming a background illness.
This thread is for posters to add any other ways we could see the pandemic end, more information / corrections about what I've posted, thoughts on the likelihood of each scenario etc. It is NOT for politicking or name-calling.
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