Page 4 of 7 FirstFirst ... 23456 ... LastLast
Results 31 to 40 of 70

Thread: Ways to end the Covid pandemic

  1. #31
    tWebber NorrinRadd's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    Wayne Township, PA
    Faith
    Full Gospel Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,603
    Amen (Given)
    5421
    Amen (Received)
    974
    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    For example, it is widely believed that smallpox was eradicated, so when a suspiciously similar disease with identical symptoms suddenly appears, doctors can't very well call it something that was supposedly "eradicated" (well, they could, but that would be career suicide), so instead they give it a new name. In this case, "monkeypox".

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...x-on-the-rise/

    Same thing with polio. Any new cases with polio-like symptoms are diagnosed as "acute flaccid myelitis". Which is to say that despite the fact that a disease has the exact same symptoms as polio, doctors are discouraged from referring to it as something that was supposedly "eradicated".

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/acute-f...ise-questions/

    So perhaps that's a solution here, develop a vaccine for the Wuhan flu, declare it "eradicated" so life can go back to normal, and then when new cases appear, give it a new name.
    Oh, ok, kind of like the way we "win" wars.
    Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

    Beige Nationalist.

    "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

  2. #32
    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    New Zealand
    Faith
    Atheist
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    9,891
    Amen (Given)
    2856
    Amen (Received)
    1928
    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    For example, it is widely believed that smallpox was eradicated, so when a suspiciously similar disease with identical symptoms suddenly appears, doctors can't very well call it something that was supposedly "eradicated" (well, they could, but that would be career suicide), so instead they give it a new name. In this case, "monkeypox".

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...x-on-the-rise/

    Same thing with polio. Any new cases with polio-like symptoms are diagnosed as "acute flaccid myelitis". Which is to say that despite the fact that a disease has the exact same symptoms as polio, doctors are discouraged from referring to it as something that was supposedly "eradicated".

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/acute-f...ise-questions/

    So perhaps that's a solution here, develop a vaccine for the Wuhan flu, declare it "eradicated" so life can go back to normal, and then when new cases appear, give it a new name.
    1. It's trivially easy these days to genetically sequence an infection and compare the sequence to the on-file sequence for another disease. If they were the same, it would be obvious.

    2. It's common for there to be different species that have similarities due to evolving from a common source. e.g. horses, donkeys, and zebras. This is likewise common amongst viruses and bacteria, especially if they have evolved to each infect different hosts. e.g. camelpox, cowpox, monkeypox, raccoonpox, skunkpox, volepox, smallpox etc.

    With regard to #2 It was the observation that farmers who had been exposed to cows with cowpox (which has minimal effect on humans) subsequently didn't seem to get smallpox (lethally serious in humans) due to the antibodies they'd developed to fight off cowpox, that led to the development of a cowpox based vaccine to wipe out smallpox.

    For this reason, my own covid joke version of Trump's 'have you tried injecting disinfectant?' is 'have you tried hugging cows?' as Bovine Coronavirus is a cow-hosted relative of Covid and its not impossible that it might convey some level of covid immunity to humans in a similar way to cowpox exposure preventing smallpox.

    This is not the first time on these forums though that I've seen an "all diseases are basically the same disease" type argument from MM though...
    Last edited by Starlight; 05-08-2020 at 04:03 PM.

  3. #33
    tWebber MaxVel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    It's hot!
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    1,871
    Amen (Given)
    1470
    Amen (Received)
    2037
    To summarise so far: Ways to end this coronavirus pandemic. I've ranked them in what I think is their order of probability, with (1) being the most likely to happen.


    (1a)'Herd immunity'

    (1b) Virus peters out naturally

    -these two I think are about equally likely, and are probably somewhat related.

    -it's possible / likely (?) that the virus will mutate into less dangerous forms and thus cease to be a problem. (I think this is what Shunya thinks will happen (?)


    **My thoughts: I think this by far the most likely outcome in the long term. Developing a vaccine seems hopeful rather than probable (problem of if exposure (via infection or vaccine) grants any significant long term immunity)



    (2) Diagnose and cure

    We develop ways to make early identification of infected people, along with an effective way to treat them so that they get better, and don't infect others. Presumably this would involve advances in testing, and also in antibody tests, plus some form of anti-viral drug(s). If we could get this going across the world... ...problem solved.


    Antibody treatment

    Treating infected people with antibodies sourced from others who have already been infected.


    ** There is some hope that we can find more effective ways to treat patients. The problem with this being a solution is the difficulty in providing this level of treatment to people all over the world at a rate that eradicates the infection.



    (3) Vaccination

    ** I'm currently not too hopeful that this will solve the pandemic.
    (a) It's unknown whether we can develop a vaccine at all for this kind of virus (i.e. it may not even be possible, no matter how much we try);
    (b) Any vaccine is a long way off, time-wise. I think the virus will have infected so many people (with the small exception of perhaps a few places like New Zealand) that most people will have effectively been 'vaccinated' already by exposure.
    (c) We would have to manufacture and deliver the vaccine to most of the world's population. I have real doubts about the practicality of that, both in terms of logistics, and in terms of acceptance and uptake.


    (4) Elimination


    **I doubt this is going to be successful, as it relies on 'waiting out' the pandemic in isolation until either:

    (a) an effective vaccine is found. Since I am dubious about the possibility of us developing an effective vaccine, waiting in isolation for one is futile. Eventually there will have to be a managed exposure of the quarantined population to the virus, so that people can develop herd immunity.

    or

    (b) the virus mutates and becomes less dangerous (quite possible). Not sure what happens then to a population that has had no exposure to either form of the virus - I guess they get exposed to the mutated form and it's no problem, or it dies out because it's mutation renders it less infectious



    Other thoughts: Is the 'Sweden model' the best approach? I.e. managing a controlled exposure to the virus, thus minimising casualties while also developing herd immunity. Interesting piece from the Lancet by a top Swedish epidemiologist.

    He argues:

    Sweden mortality rate OK (lower than UK)

    hard lockdown not very effective in protecting elderly in rest homes (most vulnerable group) ; doesn't really affect mortality rates


    PCR testing and some straightforward assumptions indicate that, as of April 29, 2020, more than half a million people in Stockholm county, Sweden, which is about 20–25% of the population, have been infected (Hansson D, Swedish Public Health Agency, personal communication). 98–99% of these people are probably unaware or uncertain of having had the infection; they either had symptoms that were severe, but not severe enough for them to go to a hospital and get tested, or no symptoms at all. Serology testing is now supporting these assumptions.
    That implies something similar for most other countries, I suppose, and fits with what we know about people being infected but asymptomatic. The implication is that it's very difficult to isolate infected people without an effective test, using it on almost everyone, and very quick and effective contact tracing and isolation. The last is the most difficult given the speed with which people can be infected and then themselves become infectious.


    These facts have led me to the following conclusions. Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.


    In summary, COVID-19 is a disease that is highly infectious and spreads rapidly through society. It is often quite symptomless and might pass unnoticed, but it also causes severe disease, and even death, in a proportion of the population, and our most important task is not to stop spread, which is all but futile, but to concentrate on giving the unfortunate victims optimal care.

    I think he is correct: it can't be stopped from spreading to pretty much everyone (it possibly already has in many countries). Given that, strict lockdowns are ineffective and unhelpful. Lower level measures like social distancing and so on may be helpful in slowing the rate so as to manage resources for best treatment of those who need it.


    Our goal should be to optimise treatment for those who need it, until we have herd immunity / virus mutation into less lethal form. Some social controls to 'flatten the curve' of those who are most vulnerable so as to husband treatment resources might be advisable in some countries, depending on their demographics, health systems and so on, but every country is going to be somewhat different.
    ...>>> Witty remark or snarky quote of another poster goes here <<<...

  4. Amen Esther amen'd this post.
  5. #34
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    United States
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    22,957
    Amen (Given)
    6662
    Amen (Received)
    8255
    Quote Originally Posted by Dimbulb View Post
    This is not the first time on these forums though that I've seen an "all diseases are basically the same disease" type argument from MM though...
    Which is not what I said, but thanks for playing.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  6. Amen NorrinRadd amen'd this post.
  7. #35
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Hillsborough, NC
    Faith
    Agnostic
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    15,824
    Amen (Given)
    1787
    Amen (Received)
    1065
    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    For example, it is widely believed that smallpox was eradicated, so when a suspiciously similar disease with identical symptoms suddenly appears, doctors can't very well call it something that was supposedly "eradicated" (well, they could, but that would be career suicide), so instead they give it a new name. In this case, "monkeypox".

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...x-on-the-rise/

    Same thing with polio. Any new cases with polio-like symptoms are diagnosed as "acute flaccid myelitis". Which is to say that despite the fact that a disease has the exact same symptoms as polio, doctors are discouraged from referring to it as something that was supposedly "eradicated".

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/acute-f...ise-questions/

    So perhaps that's a solution here, develop a vaccine for the Wuhan flu, declare it "eradicated" so life can go back to normal, and then when new cases appear, give it a new name.
    Vaccines have never been effective for eradicating zoonotic viruses. Any vaccine developed now could do little except to monotor the corona viruses for mutations and develop a vaccine for the next go round just as we do for flus. These viruses come and go and determine the infection curve. We can reduce the cases and fatalities by vaccines, and isolation methods, but we cannot eradicate nor defeat the zoonotic viruses.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeares Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  8. #36
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    United States
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    22,957
    Amen (Given)
    6662
    Amen (Received)
    8255
    Quote Originally Posted by shunyadragon View Post
    ...we cannot eradicate nor defeat the zoonotic viruses.
    That was my point.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  9. #37
    tWebber YHWH RULES's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2020
    Faith
    Israelite / Yahwist
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    39
    Amen (Given)
    1
    Amen (Received)
    1
    #1: National moratorium, enforced by law, lifting all rent and mortgage obligations (for both tenants and landlords), including utilities (electric, water, gas..etc).

    #2: Unemployment assistance for all who qualify and a BUI/Basic Universal Income, of $1200 monthly for everyone who earns less than half a million yearly. If someone who earns more than half a million requests the assistance, for whatever reason, they get it, no questions asked. Anyone with an address in the US, who earns under the above stated amount is eligible for the income, regardless of their immigration status. Illegal immigrants are humans too and need to eat. If they are excluded from receiving this basic monetary assistance, they can become a public health and safety hazard (Bubba may cringe at the idea of helping those brown skinned "hispanic-illegals", in the middle of a mass pandemic, but perhaps he should study his Bible more carefully, because YAHWEH doesn't condone starving people to death due to their immigration status or because they look different than Bubba.).

    Those who are homeless and without an address or a bank account, should also receive the assistance and receive adequate, safe housing. That could be done by the government working with contractors, to build emergency housing for the homeless and these individuals could be given food and whatever else they need to survive. Other social services could be provided as well, to help them overcome their personal challenges, whatever that might be. This is something that should've been done a long time ago. There is no reason for the wealthiest, most powerful empire in human history, to have so many homeless people, when there so much vacant housing, land and resources. We have the means to feed, house and train (vocational/job training), all of the homeless. We could also provided them with the medical attention they need, if they need it. Yes we can, believe it or not, if we were willing. It's a matter of will, not capacity.

    #3: The president uses his executive powers to nationalize factories and begin producing millions of test kits, medicine (hydroxychloroquine, zpak, zinc, IV bags filled with high dose vitamin C and any other drug, vitamin..etc proven effective in the field/battlefield, to fight this virus), medical equipment (masks, ventilators, whatever else we need). Our president should not be relying on the supposed philanthropic generosity, estimated production capacity of the profit pursuing private sector. He should exercise, boldly and assertively wield his constitutional, executive powers in the middle of this national crises to GET IT DONE, whatever that might be. That includes having the top experts in the country, being part of his team, to help plan and effectively execute the government's orders. If our congress refuses to lock in step with the president, the president should use his so called "bully pulpit" to force politicians in congress to "see things differently" . The president has great influence over the American people during a crises, especially when the people recognize the president's efforts as being in their best interest.


    #4 Nationally enforced health laws, requiring everyone to wear a mask (cover their mouths and noses with practically anything; it doesn't have to be an actual surgical mask, it can be a cloth, scarf, bandana, t-shirt, banana peels, anything for heaven's sake!), when in public. Social distancing should be taken seriously, and certain businesses unfortunately, that are not vital to our national infrastructure and survival, must remain closed, especially if they involve people congregating in buildings and closed, confined areas. This will greatly reduce the rate of infection and give our government and the private sector, enough time to produce and distribute the test kits, the medications/treatments, the vaccines, required to effectively handle and overcome this virus. Allowing us to open up the economy ASAP and allow us all to go back to living our lives.

    Those who don't wear a mask in public, should be called out and told to wear a mask. If they refuse to wear a mask in public, they're miscreants / criminals, who are committing an act of aggression towards their fellow human beings. They're placing themselves at risk of contracting the virus and others as well. They may not care about strangers, but they might infect their loved ones, their parents and grandparents. They might infect people they care about, and that can lead to a serious infection and complications, even death. No one who lives in society, enjoying the many benefits of living in a community, in a modern civilization, with all of its infrastructure and resources, has the right to do whatever they freaking want. They must abide by the safety measures created and enforced to protect the public and avoid hospitals from being overwhelmed with COVID patients. To do otherwise is to become a public health hazard, and such people should be punished, especially if they are proven to intentionally and continually defy and thumb their noses at these community measures to eradicate the virus. In the middle of a mass pandemic, with the potential to kill millions of Americans, you and I, don't have the right, to place other people in danger of getting infected with this deadly virus.

    Those knucklehead miscreants, who just "don't get it", should receive assistance from law enforcement on "getting it". They should be incarcerated, either in jail or in a concentration camp (oh yes, that's right. CONCENTRATION CAMP for idiots), for those who have chosen to become public health hazards, a danger to their communities. And if the governors need to deploy the national guard, and marshal law has to be used, with boots on the ground to handle Bubba (all of the self styled, combat rifle carrying, "patriot rebels" and country bumpkins who flip their fingers at their nation's effort to control and stop the pandemic), then so be it. Bubba is going to get a rude awakening from the US military, when he/she is forced to wear a mask in public, whether they like it or not. If they refuse, they go to camp, where they will be forced to live with other "patriot rebels" / bubbas, and they will wear a mask in the camp. The US government will feed and house these knuckleheads/imbeciles, until the pandemic is under control. If they choose to get violent, using lethal force, these miscreant, criminal country folk, will be quickly dispatched, compliments of the US Army and Marines. How does that sound, Bubba? Put your mask on in public. It's that simple.

    #5 We should work in cooperation with other nations, who are also fighting this virus, in order to best learn how to beat this disease.

    Read all of the above, that's the way to get through this pandemic, without losing millions of American lives. We don't have to sacrifice grandma and grandpa, to save wall street or the economy. We don't have to sacrifice anyone on the altar of this disease, provided we do what is required as a nation, as a society / modern civilization. Those that resist our nation's efforts to beat this pandemic, and spare millions of lives, should be punished and even killed, if they choose to resort to violence.
    Last edited by YHWH RULES; 05-09-2020 at 09:22 AM.

  10. #38
    tWebber NorrinRadd's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    Wayne Township, PA
    Faith
    Full Gospel Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,603
    Amen (Given)
    5421
    Amen (Received)
    974
    Quote Originally Posted by YHWH RULES View Post
    #1: National moratorium, enforced by law, lifting all rent and mortgage obligations (for both tenants and landlords), including utilities (electric, water, gas..etc).

    #2: Unemployment assistance for all who qualify and a BUI/Basic Universal Income, of $1200 monthly for everyone who earns less than half a million yearly. If someone who earns more than half a million requests the assistance, for whatever reason, they get it, no questions asked. Anyone with an address in the US, who earns under the above stated amount is eligible for the income, regardless of their immigration status. Illegal immigrants are humans too and need to eat. If they are excluded from receiving this basic monetary assistance, they can become a public health and safety hazard (Bubba may cringe at the idea of helping those brown skinned "hispanic-illegals", in the middle of a mass pandemic, but perhaps he should study his Bible more carefully, because YAHWEH doesn't condone starving people to death due to their immigration status or because they look different than Bubba.).

    Those who are homeless and without an address or a bank account, should also receive the assistance and receive adequate, safe housing. That could be done by the government working with contractors, to build emergency housing for the homeless and these individuals could be given food and whatever else they need to survive. Other social services could be provided as well, to help them overcome their personal challenges, whatever that might be. This is something that should've been done a long time ago. There is no reason for the wealthiest, most powerful empire in human history, to have so many homeless people, when there so much vacant housing, land and resources. We have the means to feed, house and train (vocational/job training), all of the homeless. We could also provided them with the medical attention they need, if they need it. Yes we can, believe it or not, if we were willing. It's a matter of will, not capacity.

    #3: The president uses his executive powers to nationalize factories and begin producing millions of test kits, medicine (hydroxychloroquine, zpak, zinc, IV bags filled with high dose vitamin C and any other drug, vitamin..etc proven effective in the field/battlefield, to fight this virus), medical equipment (masks, ventilators, whatever else we need). Our president should not be relying on the supposed philanthropic generosity, estimated production capacity of the profit pursuing private sector. He should exercise, boldly and assertively wield his constitutional, executive powers in the middle of this national crises to GET IT DONE, whatever that might be. That includes having the top experts in the country, being part of his team, to help plan and effectively execute the government's orders. If our congress refuses to lock in step with the president, the president should use his so called "bully pulpit" to force politicians in congress to "see things differently" . The president has great influence over the American people during a crises, especially when the people recognize the president's efforts as being in their best interest.


    #4 Nationally enforced health laws, requiring everyone to wear a mask (cover their mouths and noses with practically anything; it doesn't have to be an actual surgical mask, it can be a cloth, scarf, bandana, t-shirt, banana peels, anything for heaven's sake!), when in public. Social distancing should be taken seriously, and certain businesses unfortunately, that are not vital to our national infrastructure and survival, must remain closed, especially if they involve people congregating in buildings and closed, confined areas. This will greatly reduce the rate of infection and give our government and the private sector, enough time to produce and distribute the test kits, the medications/treatments, the vaccines, required to effectively handle and overcome this virus. Allowing us to open up the economy ASAP and allow us all to go back to living our lives.

    Those who don't wear a mask in public, should be called out and told to wear a mask. If they refuse to wear a mask in public, they're miscreants / criminals, who are committing an act of aggression towards their fellow human beings. They're placing themselves at risk of contracting the virus and others as well. They may not care about strangers, but they might infect their loved ones, their parents and grandparents. They might infect people they care about, and that can lead to a serious infection and complications, even death. No one who lives in society, enjoying the many benefits of living in a community, in a modern civilization, with all of its infrastructure and resources, has the right to do whatever they freaking want. They must abide by the safety measures created and enforced to protect the public and avoid hospitals from being overwhelmed with COVID patients. To do otherwise is to become a public health hazard, and such people should be punished, especially if they are proven to intentionally and continually defy and thumb their noses at these community measures to eradicate the virus. In the middle of a mass pandemic, with the potential to kill millions of Americans, you and I, don't have the right, to place other people in danger of getting infected with this deadly virus.

    Those knucklehead miscreants, who just "don't get it", should receive assistance from law enforcement on "getting it". They should be incarcerated, either in jail or in a concentration camp (oh yes, that's right. CONCENTRATION CAMP for idiots), for those who have chosen to become public health hazards, a danger to their communities. And if the governors need to deploy the national guard, and marshal law has to be used, with boots on the ground to handle Bubba (all of the self styled, combat rifle carrying, "patriot rebels" and country bumpkins who flip their fingers at their nation's effort to control and stop the pandemic), then so be it. Bubba is going to get a rude awakening from the US military, when he/she is forced to wear a mask in public, whether they like it or not. If they refuse, they go to camp, where they will be forced to live with other "patriot rebels" / bubbas, and they will wear a mask in the camp. The US government will feed and house these knuckleheads/imbeciles, until the pandemic is under control. If they choose to get violent, using lethal force, these miscreant, criminal country folk, will be quickly dispatched, compliments of the US Army and Marines. How does that sound, Bubba? Put your mask on in public. It's that simple.

    #5 We should work in cooperation with other nations, who are also fighting this virus, in order to best learn how to beat this disease.

    Read all of the above, that's the way to get through this pandemic, without losing millions of American lives. We don't have to sacrifice grandma and grandpa, to save wall street or the economy. We don't have to sacrifice anyone on the altar of this disease, provided we do what is required as a nation, as a society / modern civilization. Those that resist our nation's efforts to beat this pandemic, and spare millions of lives, should be punished and even killed, if they choose to resort to violence.
    Wow! An actual, real live totalitarian lunatic! People like you are why we have and need the Second Amendment.
    Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

    Beige Nationalist.

    "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

  11. #39
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    4,923
    Amen (Given)
    377
    Amen (Received)
    1421
    Quote Originally Posted by NorrinRadd View Post
    Wow! An actual, real live totalitarian lunatic! People like you are why we have and need the Second Amendment.
    It's scary what fear does to folks. What really amazes me is someone who professes to believe in a supernatural power and afterlife, so terrified of dying. It makes you really question their faith in those things.
    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

  12. Amen NorrinRadd amen'd this post.
  13. #40
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    United States
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    22,957
    Amen (Given)
    6662
    Amen (Received)
    8255
    Quote Originally Posted by YHWH RULES View Post
    [liberal totalitarian insanity]
    Who's going to pay for it?
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •