Betting Odds - 2020 U.S. President

[Cow Poke]

Betting Odds - 2020 U.S. President

This is interesting.

In the same "results box" that shows polling favoring Biden by 4+ points, the betting goes to Trump.

betting odds.jpg

[rogue06]

The "smart money" thinks that when Biden eventually reemerges and is back out in public again folks will essentially respond "Oh. Yeah... that's right."

[Terraceth]

The thing is, unless he dies or something, we know Trump will get the nomination. We don't know for sure yet that Biden will. There's therefore reason to be cautious when voting for Biden because, while it's unlikely he won't get the nomination, it's more plausible that happens than Trump not getting it.

Looking at the linked site, it gives 50.4 Trump and 41.4 Biden. That leaves 8.2 unaccounted for. That 8.2 is mostly made up of people like Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, etc. All long shots, of course, but the uncertainty of Biden getting the nomination--at least compared to Trump--does incentivize someone to try their luck at the lower odds in hopes of scoring it big if the extremely unlikely happens.

If Biden officially scores the nomination then I expect we'll see a jump for him in regards to betting.

[Ronson]

Trump is predictable; everyone knows what he is about and what he will do next.

Biden is not. There is an assault allegation, there are questions about his mental faculties, there is a question about his running mate (suppose he chooses Hillary and she agrees! Yikes!).

There are a lot of intangibles in Biden's corner to make Trump a better bet.

[KingsGambit]

I think Terraceth's point primarily explains the difference in the betting line. On a personal level, I would be very surprised if Trump loses, but this is just intuition.

[Cow Poke]

With everybody badmouthing Trump's "handling of the virus crisis", I'm kinda surprised that his share of the betting is actually going UP from the middle of March.

[Mountain Man]

Is there some dark magic that makes betting odds particularly reliable?

[Leonhard]

Even if the Democrats fielded an attractive candidate, Trump would still be favored because historically that's the case for the second period. Beyond that I put no stock in the polls after 2016 happened.

[Cow Poke]

Is there some dark magic that makes betting odds particularly reliable?

Not dark magic at all - but a case of "put your money where your mouth is".

Kiplinger: Gamblers Are Surprisingly Accurate at Picking the Next President

ETA: I will quickly point out that the article indicated that Hillary was the odds on favorite.

[Mountain Man]

Not dark magic at all - but a case of "put your money where your mouth is".

Kiplinger: Gamblers Are Surprisingly Accurate at Picking the Next President

ETA: I will quickly point out that the article indicated that Hillary was the odds on favorite.

[Thoughtful Monk]

Even if the Democrats fielded an attractive candidate, Trump would still be favored because historically that's the case for the second period. Beyond that I put no stock in the polls after 2016 happened.

After 2016, I decided polling happens in such a way as to underrepresent Trumps support. I don't know if they ask the wrong people or people don't admit they're going to vote for him. I usually add about 5% to Trump's side when I look at polling results.

Of course, this isn't 2016 so that idea could now be out of date.

[Cow Poke]

After 2016, I decided polling happens in such a way as to underrepresent Trumps support. I don't know if they ask the wrong people or people don't admit they're going to vote for him. I usually add about 5% to Trump's side when I look at polling results.

Of course, this isn't 2016 so that idea could now be out of date.

I think a lot of conservatives don't trust the pollsters, because there is so much talk about "push polling" -- so many conservatives don't answer the pollsters' questions.

[rogue06]

I think a lot of conservatives don't trust the pollsters, because there is so much talk about "push polling" -- so many conservatives don't answer the pollsters' questions.

Usually the same folks associated with the polls (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, WaPo, NYT...) are the same folks telling us how horrible Trump is so it is only natural for people to not tell such organizations that they support what these groups so obviously loathe.

[Terraceth]

Is there some dark magic that makes betting odds particularly reliable?

They're mostly a good gauge as to what people think will happen, given that they're putting down actual money for it.

[shunyadragon]

After 2016, I decided polling happens in such a way as to underrepresent Trumps support. I don't know if they ask the wrong people or people don't admit they're going to vote for him. I usually add about 5% to Trump's side when I look at polling results.

Of course, this isn't 2016 so that idea could now be out of date.

Actually the final tally of the votes matches the polls, unfortunately we have an electoral college that determines the winner not the voters.