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Thread: Denmark lockdown is being lifted.

  1. #1
    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    Denmark lockdown is being lifted.

    Denmark on a precautionary principle, chose to lockdown as it was estimated that our hospitals would be flooded with patients. Then it turned out that social distancing and increased hygiene works very well to keep down the spread, so we don't overburden our healthcare service, and it also became clear that a vaccine is still more than a year away.

    Based upon this, and other observations our government announced that social distancing is reduced to three feet rather than six. Stores and public places like museums as well as outdoor sports are to reopen, though there are still some precautionary steps at work. School is now opening completely again. My own job is to reopen its offices on the 18th.

    At Netcompany we'll be keeping three feet distances, there'll be plenty of handwashing. Lunch in the cafeteria has been spaced out over a longer period and you have to sit at every other seat, etc... All very reasonable and sensible precautionary measures that we are all happy to comply with.

    I think the precautionary reaction was sensible at the time, but now that we've gotten a better understanding it makes sense to open up more.

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Great news, Leon - go get 'em!!!
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    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Leonhard, do you have a sense of why the cases haven't dropped to zero despite a fairly long lockdown? What sorts of things seem to have perpetuated cases?

    It's intriguing to me that some countries with lockdowns seem to have eradicated the virus, while others have merely lowered their case numbers.

    What is the situation regarding cross-border travel in Denmark? Do you have potentially infected people constantly coming into the country?

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    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    Leonhard, do you have a sense of why the cases haven't dropped to zero despite a fairly long lockdown? What sorts of things seem to have perpetuated cases?

    It's intriguing to me that some countries with lockdowns seem to have eradicated the virus, while others have merely lowered their case numbers.

    What is the situation regarding cross-border travel in Denmark? Do you have potentially infected people constantly coming into the country?
    I donít believe a word from China when they say theyíve eradicated corona in their country. As for other countries while infection rates have gone down they havenít ceased entirely and it is impossible to contain.

    Since corona virus is practically impossible to contain, then itíll only stop when it has gone through the population. Therefore we want it to do so at a higher rate than it does now, but not so high that it overwhelms the health services.

    By changing strategy this can be done within a year.

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    tWebber Roy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    Leonhard, do you have a sense of why the cases haven't dropped to zero despite a fairly long lockdown? What sorts of things seem to have perpetuated cases?
    Idiots.

    In the UK, I suspect we have some continued infections due to occasional close encounters in supermarkets, during essential activities such as food distribution, emergency plumbing and vehicle maintenance. There have also been cases of medical workers and care workers transmitting the disease unwittingly.

    But there are also people simply ignoring the isolation guidelines - home hairdressers and their clients, community barbecues, drinking parties, family and mistress visits. Yesterday's government briefing included a survey that 80% of the population were only going on essential errands and 92% were avoiding contact with vulnerable people - suggesting 20% / 8% aren't. The main reason is idiots.
    Last edited by Roy; 05-15-2020 at 12:23 AM.
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    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leonhard View Post
    As for other countries while infection rates have gone down they havenít ceased entirely and it is impossible to contain.
    Um...?
    NZ.jpg
    HK.jpg

    Since corona virus is practically impossible to contain, then itíll only stop when it has gone through the population.
    The universal assumption in my country, which I have never heard anyone here suggest might be flawed (hence am a bit baffled by your exact opposite assumptions), is that we will eliminate it entirely. That assumption seems to have been well-validated by the data, because introducing a lockdown led to an exponential decay trend in case numbers, and we are now ticking over at 0 cases per day despite higher than ever levels of testing.

    The only serious disagreement in my country is over the rapid lift of the lockdown so soon after the cases hit zero. I think this is likely to lead to flare-ups in parts of the country that will require a few parts of the country be locked back down until it is actually eliminated.

    Therefore we want it to do so at a higher rate than it does now, but not so high that it overwhelms the health services.
    Hmm. A lot of people will die.
    Last edited by Starlight; 05-15-2020 at 12:28 AM.

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    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roy View Post
    Idiots.

    In the UK, I suspect we have some continued infections due to occasional close encounters in supermarkets, during essential activities such as food distribution, emergency plumbing and vehicle maintenance. There have also been cases of medical workers and care workers transmitting the disease unwittingly.

    But there are also people simply ignoring the isolation guidelines - home hairdressers and their clients, community barbecues, drinking parties, family and mistress visits. Yesterday's government briefing included a survey that 80% of the population were only going on essential errands and 92% were avoiding contact with vulnerable people - suggesting 20% / 8% aren't. The main reason is idiots.
    Quarantines were never meant to eliminate the Chicom coronavirus. They were meant to flatten the curve so that hospitals and care givers wouldn't be completely overwhelmed. The consequence of this action is that it will prolong the pandemic since when you flatten the curve you lengthen it.

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    tWebber Roy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    Quarantines were never meant to eliminate the Chicom coronavirus. They were meant to flatten the curve so that hospitals and care givers wouldn't be completely overwhelmed. The consequence of this action is that it will prolong the pandemic since when you flatten the curve you lengthen it.
    The quarantines in Iceland, New Zealand and Taiwan have effectively eliminated the virus from those places. Countries which are attempting to flatten the curve (which unfortunately includes the UK) are doing so because the response was too late and/or too weak to prevent the virus spreading to the point where it was non-containable.
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    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roy View Post
    The quarantines in Iceland, New Zealand and Taiwan have effectively eliminated the virus from those places. Countries which are attempting to flatten the curve (which unfortunately includes the UK) are doing so because the response was too late and/or too weak to prevent the virus spreading to the point where it was non-containable.
    Those quarantines were of an island, not placing everyone under house arrest.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization thatís not the argument." --Tassman

  14. #10
    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    The quarantines in Iceland, New Zealand and Taiwan have effectively eliminated the virus from those places.
    Those quarantines were of an island, not placing everyone under house arrest.
    Wrong. The three countries did follow different policies, but New Zealand's main 5-week quarantine period was roughly similar to house arrest. It was absolutely not a case of simply closing the borders as if quarantining an island. Perhaps Taiwan's policies could be described like that however, as they mostly went with border closures combined with high-tech contact tracing while still mostly allowing business as normal. Iceland was somewhere between the two AFAICT.
    Last edited by Starlight; 05-15-2020 at 03:13 AM.

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