Denmark lockdown is being lifted.

[Starlight]

The first is from China, and should be treated with great suspicion. The second shows that there's still new confirmed cases, and then there's all the shadow cases.

I think it's wrong to assume Hong Kong's statistics are dodgy like China's are. They are separately governed.

Regardless, it's looking like a number of countries have managed to wipe out the virus within their now-closed borders.

If you're confident that the disease spreads very quickly and has a high kill rate, then I support your current actions. A continuing lockdown is reasonable if that is the case.

We do not have a continuing lockdown. We had a lockdown, it eliminated the virus, and now economic activity is resuming, currently with social distancing by that will be dropped too once elimination is fully confirmed.

Until there's herd immunity, or a vaccine, you won't have solution. If a vaccine that comes out in late 2021 is your solution, then you might be facing a complete economic breakdown which is worse than the results.

The economy of my country and others that have wiped out the virus, will be fully up and running again. The only sector of the economy that will remain problematic is Tourism, due to borders remaining closed with countries that have failed to eliminate the virus.

[Cow Poke]

But the issue isn't whether there are more churches or more bars total, it's how densely people physically crowd together in the churches, bars, restaurants etc that exist.

That was a huge factor in our church reopening, and others not - we have multiple ways in and out, a large vestibule (lobby?) and wide open "fan shaped" seating. Other churches in the area are more of a "shotgun" tight rectangular assembly area with a very confined entry / vestibule / lobby.

[JimL]

But the issue isn't whether there are more churches or more bars total, it's how densely people physically crowd together in the churches, bars, restaurants etc that exist.

I agree, and that is where the federal govt, Trump and the institutions responsible, the CDC, the NIH, comes in. They didn't, and Trump basically ignored it, saying it's under control, there are only a few cases and they will disappear like magic. By the time local leaders knew what was happening, there were no guildlines, there was no social distancing, masks, and most importantly testing, tracing and isolating. The thing spread like wildfire before Trump knew what hit him, and he had previously disbanded the very Pandemic team that Obama put together to deal with this, as Obama said in a 2014 speach, when it inevitably hits.

[Leonhard]

I think it's wrong to assume Hong Kong's statistics are dodgy like China's are. They are separately governed.

I don’t trust them.

Regardless, it's looking like a number of countries have managed to wipe out the virus within their now-closed borders.

I am not confident that this is the case either. At any rate it is not a viable strategy in Scandinavia. The Serum Institute determined that it would be practically impossible to eliminate the virus within our borders, and avoid future flare ups. A similar conclusion was reached in Sweden. Therefore we are going for a modest reopening.

I wish you luck with the strategy your country is pursuing. I will be supporting my own country’s response.

We do not have a continuing lockdown. We had a lockdown,

My mistake. I’m glad you’re out of lockdown.

[rogue06]

The fact that density has no effect around the world, as seen in the graph I posted comparing the densities of countries their death rates, and the fact that very dense cities like Hong Kong, Singapore, Seoul and Tokyo have done very well for themselves, shows it's a nutty excuse.


p.s. The first hit I get when I google on the topic of New York City and Covid and Density is a NYT article today...

NYT: It’s a mistake to blame density for the spread of the coronavirus:

...everything we know so far about the coronavirus tells us that blaming density for disease is misguided.

...Manhattan, the borough with the highest population density, was not the hardest hit. Deaths are concentrated in the less dense, more diverse outer boroughs...

Then there is the rest of the world. While the coronavirus first exploded in Wuhan, a city of 11 million, many “hyperdense” cities in Asia have been able to contain their outbreaks. The virus appeared in Singapore (5.6 million residents), Seoul (9.8 million), Hong Kong (7.5 million) and Tokyo (9.3 million), cities close in size to New York, but with much lower recorded deaths.

California and Hawaii, for example, have high population density — but not the highest Covid-19 mortality rates of the states. Albany, Ga., with a population under 80,000, has among the highest case rates in the United States

The second google hit is on a Forbes article today arguing the same thing, and the following hits are from blog posts last month from Scientific American and the World Bank pointing out the same thing.

Maybe it was their reliance on public transportation (crammed into subways primarily). Apparently it didn't cross the minds of the New York leadership until May that maybe the subway cars should be sanitized daily.

[JimL]

Maybe it was their reliance on public transportation (crammed into subways primarily). Apparently it didn't cross the minds of the New York leadership until May that maybe the subway cars should be sanitized daily.

Apparently those suggestions weren't passed on by the pandemic response team, the organization put together by Obama for just that purpose. Oh, I forgot, Trump disbanded that team and then claimed he was left with no plan by the previous administration.

[Sparko]

Density appears to have zero effect on outcomes, as per my above post. Dense countries have done well or badly at rates equal to sparse countries.

Also, in most countries, most people live in cities. The average density of the country is almost totally irrelevant because it doesn't actually tell you if the people are clustered together or equally distributed across the country.

In NZ they are very much clustered together in cities, not distributed evenly. The percentage of population who live in urban areas is higher in NZ (~87%), than the UK (~83%) or the US (82%) or Canada (82%). New Zealand having large areas of uninhabitable mountains, does not give us any extra ability to eliminate a virus, despite lowering the average population density by their existence.

Most of your "densely populated" countries have goverments that effectively let them put their citizens under full house arrest too. You are still comparing apples to oranges.

NZ's low density is the main reason you have "eliminated" the virus, that and locking down the border is easier on an island. Your cases compare to most of the low density states in the US, which also have a few urban areas, like Kentucky, Tennessee, etc. Yet you and the other naysayers insist on comparing your low density locations with places like NY City and Chicago so you can pretend to be superior.