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Thread: Trump fires 4th Inspector General.

  1. #111
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    Of course I do. The US had PREDICTED 2 Million deaths. We are barely at 5% of that prediction. That is a HUGE win. Leftist prats like you refuse to acknowledge that.
    IIRC, the initial estimate was between something like 1.2 and 2 million deaths.

    Although I've heard some news outlets say or imply otherwise the models did factor in quarantines and social distancing

    I'm always still in trouble again

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  3. #112
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    Of course I do. The US had PREDICTED 2 Million deaths. We are barely at 5% of that prediction. That is a HUGE win. Leftist prats like you refuse to acknowledge that.
    That's just ridiculous. 2 milion deaths is what happens if we do nothing and just let it run amok (at a 1.5% mortality and 50% total infected). That is NOT the prediction with intervention. We are at 96000 and likely will see above 150,000 when if the administration had been on the ball and done what they needed to do, we could be at a fraction of that. And that is why it's a failure. 10's of thousands dead that did not need to die is NOT success.

    ...


    But it is still significant that we are comparably close to several Western countries that had different approaches to the virus.
    Not really. Not when we had more time to prepare but bungled it along so that we did worse than them instead of better.



    Then you are at odds with the good folks at Johns Hopkins, who said "One of the most important ways to measure the burden of COVID-19 is mortality."
    "Burden of COVID-19" vs "Measure of Success". I am not 'at odds' with JHU, I'm simply talking about something else. They are talking about it's impact on the medical system and society, I am talking about how to know we are beating the disease. They are intertwined to be sure, but to measure our success in stopping the disease, we need to see it stop spreading. If we want to know what the impact is on our medical system, we need to know the mortality against the current number of cases.


    And our recovery rate is nearly identical to other countries as well. People are going to get it until a vaccine is developed. The question is not how many, but when.
    Until the vaccine the issue is how many die/unit time. Because the higher that number is, the less likely the medical system is to be able to cope with it.


    Because we have 50 governors doing 50 things ...
    Because we have a federal government that dropped the ball. They wouldn't be doing 50 different things if instead of creating chaos, ignoring science and the experts, and trying to get revenge against Democratic Governors, the president was actually driving the various entities to work together to find the best solution possible based on the best possible data.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-21-2020 at 09:35 AM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  4. #113
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    What is the testing rates of most of the world, Mr ‘intellectual’?
    You seem to really want to discuss this. Point me to the data you want me to see and I'll take a look.

  5. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    IIRC, the initial estimate was between something like 1.2 and 2 million deaths.

    Although I've heard some news outlets say or imply otherwise the models did factor in quarantines and social distancing
    rogue - unless you specify exactly what the parameters of the prediction were you are talking out your dairy air*. Predictions are based on assumptions Mortality, rate of spread. Early predictions were used to show what would happen with and without interventions, and most of the early projections were based on current conditions, that is why they changed over time. And there are different levels of quarantine and social distancing. Percentages staying home vs percentages out and about. That is quite different when in lock down vs not in lock down.

    The issue is that Trump and the admin did not respond quickly or in a timely fashion. They tried to play it down, they refused to get production of PPE ramped up etc until after things started to fall apart. They had warning after warning and they did not act. That is failure. Whatever the numbers were predicted to be vs what they are is irrelevant. Saying you were successful because the worst case didn't happen is nothing more than spin. And lame spin at that.

    The simple fact is the current numbers could have been MUCH better than they are if they'd have stopped being idiots and acted on the information and knowledge they had at the time. That is the bottom line. And that is why the Trump administration response has been and continues to be a disaster.

    The are STILL ignoring the science. They are STILL ignoring realities over spin. They are STILL exhibiting and encouraging behaviors that will make the pandemic worse, not better.

    *For example, your numbers might have been with mitigations if they were using higher mortality and assuming symptoms == sick. Early assumed spread and mortality factors that did not reflect the true character of the disease in the early predictions is NOT something the Trump administration can claim credit for in their self awarded 'success' rating.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-21-2020 at 09:43 AM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  6. #115
    What's that? lilpixieofterror's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DivineOb View Post
    You seem to really want to discuss this. Point me to the data you want me to see and I'll take a look.
    You’re the one that claims to be superior, you tell me. It’s really easy to google. Tell us what it is.
    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
    GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

  7. #116
    What's that? lilpixieofterror's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    rogue - unless you specify exactly what the parameters of the prediction were you are talking out your dairy air*. Predictions are based on assumptions Mortality, rate of spread. Early predictions were used to show what would happen with and without interventions, and most of the early projections were based on current conditions, that is why they changed over time. And there are different levels of quarantine and social distancing. Percentages staying home vs percentages out and about. That is quite different when in lock down vs not in lock down.

    The issue is that Trump and the admin did not respond quickly or in a timely fashion. They tried to play it down, they refused to get production of PPE ramped up etc until after things started to fall apart. They had warning after warning and they did not act. That is failure. Whatever the numbers were predicted to be vs what they are is irrelevant. Saying you were successful because the worst case didn't happen is nothing more than spin. And lame spin at that.

    The simple fact is the current numbers could have been MUCH better than they are if they'd have stopped being idiots and acted on the information and knowledge they had at the time. That is the bottom line. And that is why the Trump administration response has been and continues to be a disaster.

    The are STILL ignoring the science. They are STILL ignoring realities over spin. They are STILL exhibiting and encouraging behaviors that will make the pandemic worse, not better.

    *For example, your numbers might have been with mitigations if they were using higher mortality and assuming symptoms == sick. Early assumed spread and mortality factors that did not reflect the true character of the disease in the early predictions is NOT something the Trump administration can claim credit for in their self awarded 'success' rating.
    The Trump admin responded, you’re just too filled with hate to care.
    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
    GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

  8. Amen Bill the Cat, RumTumTugger, Mountain Man amen'd this post.
  9. #117
    God, family, chicken! Bill the Cat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    That's just ridiculous. 2 milion deaths is what happens if we do nothing and just let it run amok.
    And since we are NOT at 2 Million because of the measures enacted by the POTUS... c'mon Jimmy... you can say it!!!

    That is NOT the prediction with intervention.
    Which we are doing, and have been since January.

    We are at 96000 and likely will see above 150,000
    Meaning the measures taken by the federal and state governments are working remarkably well.

    when if the administration had been on the ball and done what they needed to do, we could be at a fraction of that.
    They did. That's why we aren't at 2 Million. So, can I drop the mic on you NOW?

    And that is why it's a failure. 10's of thousands dead that did not need to die is NOT success.
    In terms of epidemiology, it is a RAGING success.


    Not really. Not when we had more time to prepare but bungled it along so that we did worse than them instead of better.
    Just absolutely false. We did what we needed to do to keep the numbers down as much as possible. And they are down dramatically from what was predicted.


    "Burden of COVID-19" vs "Measure of Success". I am not 'at odds' with JHU, I'm simply talking about something else.
    Yeah. Actual measurable stats versus political claptrap.

    They are talking about it's impact on the medical system and society, I am talking about how to know we are beating the disease.
    So, when we say "Unless you do something, 2 Million people will die" and we do something, and 2 Million people DON'T die, that's how we know we are beating it. When survivability rates are over 95%, that's how we know we are beating it. That we are not overwhelming the medical system is how we know we are beating it.

    They are intertwined to be sure, but to measure our success in stopping the disease, we need to see it stop spreading. If we want to know what the impact is on our medical system, we need to know the mortality against the current number of cases.
    Epidemiologist models say that if we did nothing, 80% of the US population would contract the virus. It isn't going to stop spreading. We did what was necessary to slow it so our hospitals could keep up.


    Because we have a federal government that dropped the ball.
    False. Your own numbers cited in the beginning of this post prove you wrong.

    They wouldn't be doing 50 different things if instead of creating chaos, ignoring science and the experts, and trying to get revenge against Democratic Governors, the president was actually driving the various entities to work together to find the best solution possible based on the best possible data.
    This is just an asinine comment that shows a lack of care about truth and ultra-partisan hackery.


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  10. Amen RumTumTugger, Mountain Man amen'd this post.
  11. #118
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    You’re the one that claims to be superior, you tell me. It’s really easy to google. Tell us what it is.
    Dear lord you are lazy.

    Here is the link I found. It shows we are 9th in testing per million despite being 1st in number of cases and deaths. What is the point you are trying to make?

  12. #119
    What's that? lilpixieofterror's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DivineOb View Post
    Dear lord you are lazy.

    Here is the link I found. It shows we are 9th in testing per million despite being 1st in number of cases and deaths. What is the point you are trying to make?
    I knew it was there and have even shared that link several times dear. I see you still need help, what’s the rest of the world’s testing rates?

    FYI, try this:
    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...n=homeAdUOA?Si
    Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 05-21-2020 at 10:19 AM.
    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
    GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

  13. #120
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    I knew it was there and have even shared that link several times dear. I see you still need help, what’s the rest of the world’s testing rates?
    My link shows that our testing rate is ~35k per million. The countries above us are testing at around 300k-400k per million!

    How does this data make your point?

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