Trump’s poor handling of the crisis may lose him the GOP’s most reliable voters

[DivineOb]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...source=twitter

The shift has been showing up in a string of recent polls, reportedly including those that have been conducted by Trump’s own campaign. One of the most striking is a survey of 44 battleground House districts done by Democratic pollster Geoff Garin during the second week of May.

In those districts, voters over 65 said they had supported Trump in 2016 by a 22-point margin — 58 percent to 36 percent.

But this year, those same respondents are practically evenly divided, with 47 percent saying they are planning to vote for the president and 43 percent expressing an intention to cast their ballots for former vice president Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee. That is an enormous net swing of 18 percentage points.

“They’re in real trouble if they can’t count on a strong showing with seniors,” said Garin, who did the survey for a client he declined to name. “Trump is blowing what had become an important Republican advantage.”

Are seniors fools falling for Democractic scaremongering? It seems so odd to me that Trump has made multiple decisions (e.g. blab about cutting entitlements) which are guaranteed to upset the GOP's most reliable voting bloc. Don't get it.

[Starlight]

That demographic is dying at a much higher rate from Covid than younger people are. If their votes were key to Trump's win, especially in those swing states where he had a razor thin margin, what effect is them dying in significant numbers going to have?!

[JimL]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...source=twitter

The shift has been showing up in a string of recent polls, reportedly including those that have been conducted by Trump’s own campaign. One of the most striking is a survey of 44 battleground House districts done by Democratic pollster Geoff Garin during the second week of May.

In those districts, voters over 65 said they had supported Trump in 2016 by a 22-point margin — 58 percent to 36 percent.

But this year, those same respondents are practically evenly divided, with 47 percent saying they are planning to vote for the president and 43 percent expressing an intention to cast their ballots for former vice president Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee. That is an enormous net swing of 18 percentage points.

“They’re in real trouble if they can’t count on a strong showing with seniors,” said Garin, who did the survey for a client he declined to name. “Trump is blowing what had become an important Republican advantage.”

Are seniors fools falling for Democractic scaremongering? It seems so odd to me that Trump has made multiple decisions (e.g. blab about cutting entitlements) which are guaranteed to upset the GOP's most reliable voting bloc. Don't get it.

Seniors, the largest group of FOX NEWS watchers, are also the largest group of Trump supporters. I think they're pissed off as well with Trumps ineptitude in dealing with the Pandemic to which the seniors are most at risk. Their savings are at risk too, for the same reason. Plus, many of their kids probably had to move back in with them after losing their jobs. That's really got to gall them!

[JimL]

That demographic is dying at a much higher rate from Covid than younger people are. If their votes were key to Trump's win, especially in those swing states where he had a razor thin margin, what effect is them dying in significant numbers going to have?!

Not to mention all the family members and friends of the deceased. Not that they would all recognize that Trump is largely responsible for the ineptitude of the response, but I'm sure a lot of them do recognize it.

[Leonhard]

I'll be as surprised if Trump loses as I was that he won.

[Mountain Man]

This is what the Washington Post wants you to believe at any rate.

[Starlight]

This is what the Washington Post wants you to believe at any rate.

Just because your Breitbart does nothing but propaganda isn't a reason to think every other outlet is as immoral as you guys.

[rogue06]

That demographic is dying at a much higher rate from Covid than younger people are. If their votes were key to Trump's win, especially in those swing states where he had a razor thin margin, what effect is them dying in significant numbers going to have?!

There's a radio personality around here who got in trouble for saying she (?) hoped that the Chicom coronavirus killed a lot more people since most of them will be older and likely to vote for Trump.

[rogue06]

Just because your Breitbart does nothing but propaganda isn't a reason to think every other outlet is as immoral as you guys.

Can't help but notice that when someone says that, for instance, CNN is a fake news propaganda outlet, they almost always offer examples to back up their assertion whereas those that go after Breitbart simply make unsupported accusations.

[Sparko]

well we all know how accurate the polls were before the last election.

The thing you guys are forgetting is the other choice is Biden.

[rogue06]

well we all know how accurate the polls were before the last election.

The thing you guys are forgetting is the other choice is Biden.

Many don't care.

For instance, in a letter to the editor at the New York Times, the founder of Politico and former head of the NYT's Washington bureau, Martin Tolchin, proclaimed that he wants a "coronation" for Biden and not an investigation of the sexual assault allegations against him. He makes it crystal clear that he doesn't care about what Biden may or may not have done.

Tolchin elaborates:

I don’t want justice, whatever that may be. I want a win, the removal of Donald Trump from office, and Mr. Biden is our best chance. Suppose an investigation reveals damaging information concerning his relationship with Tara Reade or something else, and Mr. Biden loses the nomination to Senator Bernie Sanders or someone else with a minimal chance of defeating Mr. Trump. Should we really risk the possibility?

IOW, anybody but Trump regardless of the cost.

And this brings us to...

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[rogue06]

There's a radio personality around here who got in trouble for saying she (?) hoped that the Chicom coronavirus killed a lot more people since most of them will be older and likely to vote for Trump.

covidspread.jpg

[JimL]

well we all know how accurate the polls were before the last election.

The thing you guys are forgetting is the other choice is Biden.

The polls were actually fairly accurate in 2016.

[DivineOb]

well we all know how accurate the polls were before the last election.

The thing you guys are forgetting is the other choice is Biden.

I'm not going to refight this but 538 had Trump's victory odds at 1/3 the day before the election. Enough of this line drawing fallacy trash every time someone brings up any poll you don't like.

[Sparko]

I'm not going to refight this but 538 had Trump's victory odds at 1/3 the day before the election. Enough of this line drawing fallacy trash every time someone brings up any poll you don't like.

There, there, there. Take it easy... you can believe your polls if you need to.

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