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Thread: Cold War II

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    tWebber Thoughtful Monk's Avatar
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    Cold War II

    Between trade disputes, Chinese stealing our business secrets, how they responded to coronavirus by concealing the extending, and now with the new Chinese laws regarding Hong Kong, I think we can declare Cold War II has now begun. I view this as an issue more important that coronavirus and long term; this is going to go for decades.

    I certainly hope it never becomes a hot war.

    I have come to view China (and for the record when I use the word "China", I am refering to the Chinese government and Communist party and not the people) has an existential threat to the United States. As I watch how they treat dissidents, Tibet, Hong Kong, the Uigers, Christians, I have no doubt how they will treat me if they get a chance. I won't be pretty.

    I don't know how to fight this kind of war. We start figuring it out and doing it.
    "For I desire mercy, not sacrifice, and acknowledgment of God rather than burnt offerings." Hosea 6:6

    "Theology can be an intellectual entertainment." Metropolitan Anthony Bloom

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    tWebber Ronson's Avatar
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    I seriously doubt it will become a "hot war". That wouldn't serve anybody's interests, and doesn't fit China's long-term goals of global economic domination.

    IMO, China is going to push the envelope for a while since the world (and especially the US) is preoccupied. I expect things will greatly calm down by next year.

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    tWebber
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    I keep seeing news commentators and pundits warning about a "potential" cold war. If we're not already in a cold war with China, then I must not know what a cold war is. In fact, b definition, we'd could say we're already in a "hybrid war." At this point, with both their military ships and planes messing with each other in the South Pacific, I'd be more concerned of a hot war.
    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    I hope that the "Buy America" sentiment that so many people are feeling against China doesn't subside.

    Anybody with a brain knows that any factories that are allowed to move to China - China is only interested in stealing their technology.

    I used to watch Shark Tank -- and the prevailing advice was "you have to move your production to China" because of profit margins. I really hope we have learned our lesson.

    PARTICULARLY with regards to pharmaceuticals.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    tWebber Whateverman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    I used to watch Shark Tank -- and the prevailing advice was "you have to move your production to China" because of profit margins. I really hope we have learned our lesson.
    I'd respectfully like to ask what you think the lesson is.

    The facts are pretty simple:


    • The cost of living is cheaper in China than it is in the US.
    • Thus the cost of doing business is cheaper there than here



    US capitalists will move to where profits are the highest, which means they'll head to places like China. That's not a "lesson" that needs to be learned, per se. Instead, it's an economic dynamic that the US can't combat by simply learning lessons.

    ps. I apologize if I misunderstood you.

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Whateverman View Post
    I'd respectfully like to ask what you think the lesson is.

    The facts are pretty simple:


    • The cost of living is cheaper in China than it is in the US.
    • Thus the cost of doing business is cheaper there than here
    No argument.

    US capitalists will move to where profits are the highest, which means they'll head to places like China. That's not a "lesson" that needs to be learned, per se. Instead, it's an economic dynamic that the US can't combat by simply learning lessons.
    Not all of us (I've been involved in multiple businesses as a principal) are interested in doing things the absolute cheapest way. Some of us are actually interested in providing jobs here at home. It's a challenge, but if you build a better product and provide exceptional support, you can gain an edge.

    Many of us, as consumers, are willing to pay more for quality, and for the knowledge that we are supporting jobs "at home".

    And, many times, in the "follow up", it's discovered that INITIALLY, it was cheaper having products produced overseas, then there are quality control issues, and before you know it, the market is flooded with Chinese "knock-offs".

    ps. I apologize if I misunderstood you.
    No prob!
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  10. #7
    tWebber Whateverman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Whateverman View Post
    US capitalists will move to where profits are the highest, which means they'll head to places like China. That's not a "lesson" that needs to be learned, per se. Instead, it's an economic dynamic that the US can't combat by simply learning lessons.
    Not all of us (I've been involved in multiple businesses as a principal) are interested in doing things the absolute cheapest way. Some of us are actually interested in providing jobs here at home. It's a challenge, but if you build a better product and provide exceptional support, you can gain an edge.

    Many of us, as consumers, are willing to pay more for quality, and for the knowledge that we are supporting jobs "at home".

    And, many times, in the "follow up", it's discovered that INITIALLY, it was cheaper having products produced overseas, then there are quality control issues, and before you know it, the market is flooded with Chinese "knock-offs".
    I was asking (perhaps not obviously enough) about the "lesson" you hope we've learned.

    All of the things you've mentioned above are valid, and are generally good for US businesses. It would be good for our country if more people/businesses engaged in them. They cannot solve the disparities in the cost of doing business here vs China, though; all they can do is mitigate them. Until we can find a way to lower the cost of producing things here in the US (and we likely wont), there will always be a market for cheaper goods/services made outside of this country.

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Whateverman View Post
    I was asking (perhaps not obviously enough) about the "lesson" you hope we've learned.
    A) That the Chinese government doesn't love us.
    2) That we put our businesses at risk by allowing them to be exploited there.
    C) That our pharmaceutical industry, in particular, is far too much "in their hands" and under their control

    All of the things you've mentioned above are valid, and are generally good for US businesses. It would be good for our country if more people/businesses engaged in them. They cannot solve the disparities in the cost of doing business here vs China, though; all they can do is mitigate them. Until we can find a way to lower the cost of producing things here in the US (and we likely wont), there will always be a market for cheaper goods/services made outside of this country.
    And there will always (though I'm less confident in this as I used to be be people like me in the US who realize it's not always about the price - that "built in America" means jobs for our people here.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  12. #9
    tWebber Thoughtful Monk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Whateverman View Post
    I was asking (perhaps not obviously enough) about the "lesson" you hope we've learned.

    All of the things you've mentioned above are valid, and are generally good for US businesses. It would be good for our country if more people/businesses engaged in them. They cannot solve the disparities in the cost of doing business here vs China, though; all they can do is mitigate them. Until we can find a way to lower the cost of producing things here in the US (and we likely wont), there will always be a market for cheaper goods/services made outside of this country.
    From what I read, the cost of doing business in China is going up. There is already a trend of manufacturing moving out of China (to Vietnam and Thailand I think).

    I think some essential businesses like pharmaceuticals, we're going have to solve the problem of how to make them in America.
    "For I desire mercy, not sacrifice, and acknowledgment of God rather than burnt offerings." Hosea 6:6

    "Theology can be an intellectual entertainment." Metropolitan Anthony Bloom

  13. #10
    tWebber Whateverman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
    From what I read, the cost of doing business in China is going up.
    The standard of living has improved over the last 2 decades or so, so that makes sense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
    There is already a trend of manufacturing moving out of China (to Vietnam and Thailand I think).
    I hadn't heard this, but I don't doubt it either.

    Quote Originally Posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
    I think some essential businesses like pharmaceuticals, we're going have to solve the problem of how to make them in America.
    That's gonna be tough...

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