I'm beginning to doubt Trump's relection chances

[seanD]

Nope. I'm "hung up on" US history



Today's Republicans are the racist Democrats of the past. Pointing at the racist history of the Democratic party in the US is pointing at the GOP.

You can repeat that as many times as you want, and even garnish it with the little silly smilies, but it doesn't make it true when you present to evidence for it. I presented you policies the Dems fervently push for that eerily parallel the racist eugenicists of the past. Don't even get me started on LBJ's (who was a flaming racist at heart) so-called Great Society policy that devastated the black communities. Again, it's the ACTIONS of the parties.

But we're way off topic anyway.

[Chaotic Void]

The polls which were released yesterday confirm the substantial lead Biden has over Trump. If Trump is to have any hope of winning in November, he will have to narrow Biden's lead to at most +3, and ideally closer to +2.

Yesterday's polls:

+9 Biden - YouGov
+13 Biden - Redfield & Wilton Strategies
+11 Biden - Optimus (first poll)
+11 Biden - Optimus (second poll)

I'll be honest, I'm taking the polls with a massive grain of salt. Not only can a lot happen in a few months time that could radically change their results, but I distinctly recall people sneering that the vast majority of polls around this time in 2016 predicted that El Cheeto would lose.

And sure enough, the vast majority of them had Hillary as the victor, with only a few of them predicting Donnie Crassco's victory come later in July (ETA: Other than a small smattering of the others throughout)

[Whateverman]

I'll be honest, I'm taking the polls with a massive grain of salt. Not only can a lot happen in a few months time that could radically change their results, but I distinctly recall people sneering that the vast majority of polls around this time in 2016 predicted that El Cheeto would lose.

Polls are snapshots in time. Just as an image from the past doesn't necessarily predict the future - it can do that on occasion.

I don't know a single person - Trump supporter, Clinton supporter or otherwise - who thought polls were the last word on who was going to win in 2018. Everyone watched those polls as the campaign season went on, trying to discern whether there was a trend which might actually predict the election outcome. Most US voters forget that as that last month before the election came around, the polls were much less certain; during the remaining week or two, most polls showed Trump having a good chance of winning.

So while I respect taking polling data today with a 50lb bag of salt, that's what you're supposed to do. Polls are never produced as political prophecy; they're just a limited picture of the situation at the time of the polling. You're supposed to file the information away, rather than use them to proclaim victory or defeat.

For me, if the polls today show Biden in the lead (and most seem to), that's worth noting.

It's an objective fact that Trump has noticed it as well.

[Chaotic Void]

Polls are snapshots in time. Just as an image from the past doesn't necessarily predict the future - it can do that on occasion.

I don't know a single person - Trump supporter, Clinton supporter or otherwise - who thought polls were the last word on who was going to win in 2018. Everyone watched those polls as the campaign season went on, trying to discern whether there was a trend which might actually predict the election outcome. Most US voters forget that as that last month before the election came around, the polls were much less certain; during the remaining week or two, most polls showed Trump having a good chance of winning.

So while I respect taking polling data today with a 50lb bag of salt, that's what you're supposed to do. Polls are never produced as political prophecy; they're just a limited picture of the situation at the time of the polling. You're supposed to file the information away, rather than use them to proclaim victory or defeat.

For me, if the polls today show Biden in the lead (and most seem to), that's worth noting.

It's an objective fact that Trump has noticed it as well.

Exactly. It's just a crying shame that in 2016 so many of my left-wing acquaintances, IRL or Otherwise, were cackling and crowing as if Trump was going to get smoked like a day's worth of brisket at a Texas BBQ Joint.

[DivineOb]

I'll be honest, I'm taking the polls with a massive grain of salt. Not only can a lot happen in a few months time that could radically change their results, but I distinctly recall people sneering that the vast majority of polls around this time in 2016 predicted that El Cheeto would lose.

And sure enough, the vast majority of them had Hillary as the victor, with only a few of them predicting Donnie Crassco's victory come later in July (ETA: Other than a small smattering of the others throughout)

Clinton won the popular vote by 2.2%. IOW, polls from July 2016 were very accurate to the final result.

ETA: But I would be thrilled if Biden supporters all assumed the polls were way off, so keep it up

[Darth Ovious]

This is the conservative perspective, yes.

It's not necessarily a perspective shared by non-conservatives, though - and pointing to instances of Biden fumbling his words is just as scary as instances of Trump doing the same.

People might not like Trump but I think most of his marbles are in check. I just think he's not quite sure what to do and I can't blame him, it's difficult for anybody on the conservative side to know what to do. The far left group activists now have a hold on society and that's not going to be easy to break. They have their struggle sessions going on and are going after anybody who doesn't fall into line. Here is an example, albeit not the only one.

https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rowd...l-media-posts/

So this player had to apologise on behalf of his wife, nothing he said personally and then he had to publicly disown his wife only for it to not matter and to be fired anyway.

Also not to mention everything getting cancelled or restricted like Gone With The Wind or even having an episode of Fawlty Towers being retracted from the BBC play list amongst other things.

Lastly all the donations to BLM coming from major co-operations is actually quite alarming considering their current campaign to defund the police and to replace it with armed patrols of their own members. Now I don't deny the organisations right to exist and protest for the causes they believe in but I do think that they are not a non-partisan organisation to be policing areas. I don't think they would be able to effectively serve members of the community who are Hispanic, Native American, Asian, White or any other race for that matter.

https://blacklivesmatter.com/defundthepolice/

The push now is towards the dismantling of the west, it's even happening here in the UK where the statue of Winston Churchill was vandalised with spray paint with the word "Racist" over it. Heck if we are not even allowed Churchill then what exactly are we supposed to have? I think it's only a matter of time before we fall into chaos.

[Cow Poke]

I think that the more the left acts out with this psychotic censorship, chaos, confusion, anti-Police rhetoric, CHAZ crap......

The more they do this, the more it helps Trump.

[seanD]

I think that the more the left acts out with this psychotic censorship, chaos, confusion, anti-Police rhetoric, CHAZ crap......

The more they do this, the more it helps Trump.

I got to tell ya, Trump can say some of the most imbecilic crap and I wish he'd stop, but it's hard to think even his tweets can offset literal asylum lunacy like this...

[Darth Ovious]

I think that the more the left acts out with this psychotic censorship, chaos, confusion, anti-Police rhetoric, CHAZ crap......

The more they do this, the more it helps Trump.

The problem is the far left are lunatics who won't listen to rhyme or reason and they have been indoctrinated into their beliefs. This is only increasing, moderates and those on the right aren't really challenging them effectively. A lot of people are just giving in to them now. This isn't going away.

[Darth Ovious]

I got to tell ya, Trump can say some of the most imbecilic crap and I wish he'd stop, but it's hard to think even his tweets can offset literal asylum lunacy like this...

Did she really say Gayborhood?

[seanD]

Did she really say Gayborhood?

Yes. Yes she did. And it was not satire.

[Cow Poke]

The problem is the far left are lunatics who won't listen to rhyme or reason and they have been indoctrinated into their beliefs. This is only increasing, moderates and those on the right aren't really challenging them effectively. A lot of people are just giving in to them now. This isn't going away.

There have GOT to be some older sane Democrats who, like my Dad, finally realize "the party has left me".

[Leonhard]

There have GOT to be some older sane Democrats who, like my Dad, finally realize "the party has left me".

It's been a while, but I know several democrats who are tired of the current Democrat establishment.

[Darth Ovious]

There have GOT to be some older sane Democrats who, like my Dad, finally realize "the party has left me".

That may be the case and maybe the Republicans will win in November but that isn't enough to change the direction of the culture war.

[Cow Poke]

That may be the case and maybe the Republicans will win in November but that isn't enough to change the direction of the culture war.

No sir, I'm resigned to the notion that, barring an honest-to-goodness Holy Ghost Revival, we have suddenly accelerated our own demise.