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I'm beginning to doubt Trump's relection chances

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  • Originally posted by DivineOb View Post
    Clinton won the popular vote by 2.2%. IOW, polls from July 2016 were very accurate to the final result.

    ETA: But I would be thrilled if Biden supporters all assumed the polls were way off, so keep it up
    That's nice... Based on the fact she's not currently in the White House, I guess that's like me saying the Conservatives had the most votes- beating out the Liberal Party by a solid 200k- in Canada's last Election.
    Have You Touched Grass Today? If Not, Please Do.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Darth Ovious View Post
      Did she really say Gayborhood?
      I guess it's actually a thing:

      https://www.gayborhood.com/

      ps. totally safe and non-offensive, though I only looked at the landing page.

      Comment


      • Guess I'll post more cancel culture stuff here.

        https://www.rollingstone.com/pro/new...blues-1013919/

        So Lady Antebellum have had to change their name because of slavery or whatever. I don't want to know anymore at this point. However apparently there was already another artist with the name Lady A so now apparently they are trying to steal a stage name from a black women. Oh ghee, what a world we live in now.

        Earlier that day, Grammy-winning country trio Lady Antebellum — whose name had been criticized for its associations with romanticized ideas of the pre-war, slavery-ridden American South — announced they were changing their name to Lady A in light of a heightened national conversation about racism. Lady Antebellum made the changes swiftly on social media and distribution platforms including Spotify and Apple Music, and the group’s website also announced their rechristening as Lady A. But according to Seattle’s Lady A, neither the band nor any members of their team reached out to her before making the change.
        “I didn’t go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of Port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don’t recommend Christianity.” - C.S. Lewis

        Comment


        • I follow state level Presidential polls closely, and I just encountered my first poll for Arkansas.

          In 2016, Trump was +27 over Clinton in Arkansas. In the poll that was released today, Trump is only +2 over Biden in Arkansas. I can't recall the last time I saw a poll that could be considered to be good news for Trump, in recent months the results have been uniformly negative for him.

          According to the following article, in Arkansas Trump is losing the support of independents, women, the young, and non-Caucasians, as a result of high unemployment, racial strife, the pandemic, and civil unrest. If Trump can't hold on to a state like Arkansas, then there is no possibility he can win in November.

          https://talkbusiness.net/2020/06/pol...e-in-arkansas/
          "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
          "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
            I follow state level Presidential polls closely, and I just encountered my first poll for Arkansas.

            In 2016, Trump was +27 over Clinton in Arkansas. In the poll that was released today, Trump is only +2 over Biden in Arkansas. I can't recall the last time I saw a poll that could be considered to be good news for Trump, in recent months the results have been uniformly negative for him.

            According to the following article, in Arkansas Trump is losing the support of independents, women, the young, and non-Caucasians, as a result of high unemployment, racial strife, the pandemic, and civil unrest. If Trump can't hold on to a state like Arkansas, then there is no possibility he can win in November.

            https://talkbusiness.net/2020/06/pol...e-in-arkansas/
            Trump, as expected, also won Texas by 9% over Clinton. He's now in a dead heat with Biden according to the latest polls I've seen.

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            • Originally posted by JimL View Post
              Trump, as expected, also won Texas by 9% over Clinton. He's now in a dead heat with Biden according to the latest polls I've seen.
              Yes, the latest polls I have seen have Biden +3 in Florida, and a tie in Texas. According to the website 270TOWIN Trump needs to win both these states in November to have any chance of a second term. Biden is also +15 in Michigan and +9 in Wisconsin, and leading in every toss-up state except Pennsylvania so a repeat of Trump's 2016 victory seems, at this point, very unlikely (actually, the Pennsylvania poll appears to be an outlier, so Biden is probably ahead there, too).

              The House is already pretty well guaranteed to go to the Democrats, and with each passing day the likelihood of a Democrat controlled Senate becomes more certain.
              "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
              "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
                Yes, the latest polls I have seen have Biden +3 in Florida, and a tie in Texas. According to the website 270TOWIN Trump needs to win both these states in November to have any chance of a second term. Biden is also +15 in Michigan and +9 in Wisconsin, and leading in every toss-up state except Pennsylvania so a repeat of Trump's 2016 victory seems, at this point, very unlikely (actually, the Pennsylvania poll appears to be an outlier, so Biden is probably ahead there, too).

                The House is already pretty well guaranteed to go to the Democrats, and with each passing day the likelihood of a Democrat controlled Senate becomes more certain.
                True, according to current polling. Collins of Maine, McSally of Arizona, Gardner of Colorado, and Tillis of N. Carolina are particularly vulnerable, and Daines of Montans, Perdue of Georgia, and even Ernst in Iowa are in dead heats, some of them behind in the polls. But never discount Republican voter suppressin tactics. Iowa for instance, Senate republican Joni Ernst's state, just had a flawless election with mail in voting, so the republican Senate turned around and past legislation to make sure that doesn't happen again. They understand, and the have understood for some time now, that the more people vote, the more people who have access to voting, the less chance they have of winning. You've probably heard of the recent debacle orchestrated by republicans in the recent Georgia election as well.
                Last edited by JimL; 06-15-2020, 09:54 AM.

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                • Originally posted by JimL View Post
                  True, according to current polling. Collins of Maine, McSally of Arizona, Gardner of Colorado, and Tillis of N. Carolina are particularly vulnerable, and Daines of Montans, Perdue of Georgia, and even Ernst in Iowa are in dead heats, some of them behind in the polls. But never discount Republican voter suppressin tactics.
                  For myself, I think shadow voters are going to play a bigger part: they're the ones who - like 2016 - discounted polls and didn't contribute in the collection of opinion data until it came time to cast their vote. Contempt for "the media" causes some to avoid taking part in the pre-election furor.

                  They're the ones who essentially gave us the November Surprise in the previous election, and I think we'd be smart to assume the same thing might happen later this year...

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
                    For myself, I think shadow voters are going to play a bigger part: they're the ones who - like 2016 - discounted polls and didn't contribute in the collection of opinion data until it came time to cast their vote. Contempt for "the media" causes some to avoid taking part in the pre-election furor.

                    They're the ones who essentially gave us the November Surprise in the previous election, and I think we'd be smart to assume the same thing might happen later this year...
                    I think, as the riots spread and the CHAZ nonsense continues and the nutty "defund police" movement grows, there will be and more "shadow voters" who want this idiocy to stop, but don't want to face retribution from BLM and/or media.
                    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
                      For myself, I think shadow voters are going to play a bigger part: they're the ones who - like 2016 - discounted polls and didn't contribute in the collection of opinion data until it came time to cast their vote. Contempt for "the media" causes some to avoid taking part in the pre-election furor.

                      They're the ones who essentially gave us the November Surprise in the previous election, and I think we'd be smart to assume the same thing might happen later this year...
                      The polls were not that wrong in 2016, Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million, lost the electoral college by some 70,000 votes spread over 3 states, probably due in part to Comey who in the last few weeks running up to the election, made public an investigation into Clinton. He didn't however make public the ongoing investigation into the Trump campaign.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by JimL View Post
                        The polls were not that wrong in 2016, Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million, lost the electoral college by some 70,000 votes spread over 3 states, probably due in part to Comey who in the last few weeks running up to the election, made public an investigation into Clinton. He didn't however make public the ongoing investigation into the Trump campaign.
                        I'm sure there was something about a 99% about something. I can't seem to remember now.
                        “I didn’t go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of Port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don’t recommend Christianity.” - C.S. Lewis

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
                          Yes, the latest polls I have seen have Biden +3 in Florida, and a tie in Texas. According to the website 270TOWIN Trump needs to win both these states in November to have any chance of a second term. Biden is also +15 in Michigan and +9 in Wisconsin, and leading in every toss-up state except Pennsylvania so a repeat of Trump's 2016 victory seems, at this point, very unlikely (actually, the Pennsylvania poll appears to be an outlier, so Biden is probably ahead there, too).

                          The House is already pretty well guaranteed to go to the Democrats, and with each passing day the likelihood of a Democrat controlled Senate becomes more certain.
                          If the House and Senate appear to be going Democrat, that increases my likelihood of voting for Trump. I feel I get best served when the government is divided.
                          "For I desire mercy, not sacrifice, and acknowledgment of God rather than burnt offerings." Hosea 6:6

                          "Theology can be an intellectual entertainment." Metropolitan Anthony Bloom

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                          • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                            No. The Democrats are still the same Democrats, they just wear a different hood.

                            They still want to keep blacks on their plantation. They were still naming a former grand kleagle of the KKK as president pro tem of the Senate (third in line for the presidency after the VP and Speaker of the House) until about ten years ago. A guy who felt comfortable using the n-word a couple times on national TV not long before that.
                            demsnowthen.jpg

                            I'm always still in trouble again

                            "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                            "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                            "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

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                            • Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
                              Nope. Today's Republicans are yesterday's Democrats.
                              You seem smarter than mindlessly chanting slogans and mantras. The facts are just not on your side here.

                              Today's Democrat Party has a think veneer over it which is the only difference between them now and then. Well, that and an eagerly compliant MSM more than happy to ignore it while seeking to distract attention elsewhere.

                              I'm always still in trouble again

                              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                              "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                                You seem smarter than mindlessly chanting slogans and mantras. The facts are just not on your side here.

                                Today's Democrat Party has a think veneer over it which is the only difference between them now and then. Well, that and an eagerly compliant MSM more than happy to ignore it while seeking to distract attention elsewhere.
                                The above is brought to you by alternate universe rogue.

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