Announcement

Collapse

Civics 101 Guidelines

Want to argue about politics? Healthcare reform? Taxes? Governments? You've come to the right place!

Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
See more
See less

I'm beginning to doubt Trump's relection chances

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by Terraceth View Post
    Chaotic Void didn't say a single thing about polls. The statement was "everyone thought Trump was going to get OWNED". The statement was not on who would win, but who people thought would win.

    I am not sure why you are claiming that a lot of people were giving "even odds" for Trump winning. If you are referring to betting sites, they were giving about 80% Hillary, 20% Trump, as seen here:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/bett...-election.html

    See also these articles:
    https://www.ibtimes.com/presidential...hances-2443035
    https://www.oddsshark.com/entertainm...s-2016-futures

    Remember, betting odds aren't abstract numbers based on pole interpretations. They're set based on what people are betting on; if people are overwhelmingly betting one way, you give lower odds for the other to incentivize people to bet on that (as it would mean if they bet on the option perceived as less likely, they'll make a greater return). So not only are these not close to even odds, these show that people--or at least those who were placing bets--strongly believed that Hillary was going to be the victor.

    So I don't see how you're refuting what Chaotic Void said. Not only did Chaotic Void say nothing about the polls, but only predictions, your claim of "even odds" doesn't seem to be supported. Maybe you're referring not to betting sites, but pundit predictions based on polls, but I don't recall "even odds" being given, as I recall FiveThirtyEight giving about a 30% chance for Trump and that was noted by others as being a fairly high prediction compared to what other people were saying.
    In all fairness, the larger conversation has been about polls, which are a part of the basis of the predictions and the betting odds that Trump would/will lose. I agree that polls are very likely to shift and change with time... and depending on Biden's pick for Vice President, they could even RADICALLY change in favor of either of the Old White Geezers.
    Have You Touched Grass Today? If Not, Please Do.

    Comment


    • Iowa and Missouri just flipped to Biden. Trump's lead in Arkansas was just reduced to +2, so that could be the next state to flip to Biden.

      The following is a list of all states that Trump won in 2016, but where Biden now leads. Trump's 2016 margin of victory is in red. Something is severely wrong with Trump's campaign, if he can't even hold on to a state like Missouri.

      +11 Biden - Wisconsin (+0.8)
      +11 Biden - Michigan (+0.2)
      +10 Biden - Pennsylvania (+0.7)
      +9 Biden - North Carolina (+4)
      +7 Biden - Arizona (+4)
      +6 Biden - Florida (+1)
      +2 Biden - Georgia (+5)
      +2 Biden - Missouri (+19)
      +1 Biden - Ohio (+8)
      +1 Biden - Texas (+9)
      +0.1 Biden - Iowa (the race couldn't be much tighter than this)
      (+9)


      If Biden somehow manages to hold on to all these states, then the electoral college result will be:

      422 - Biden
      116 - Trump
      "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
      "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
        Iowa and Missouri just flipped to Biden. Trump's lead in Arkansas was just reduced to +2, so that could be the next state to flip to Biden.

        The following is a list of all states that Trump won in 2016, but where Biden now leads. Trump's 2016 margin of victory is in red. Something is severely wrong with Trump's campaign, if he can't even hold on to a state like Missouri.

        +11 Biden - Wisconsin (+0.8)
        +11 Biden - Michigan (+0.2)
        +10 Biden - Pennsylvania (+0.7)
        +9 Biden - North Carolina (+4)
        +7 Biden - Arizona (+4)
        +6 Biden - Florida (+1)
        +2 Biden - Georgia (+5)
        +2 Biden - Missouri (+19)
        +1 Biden - Ohio (+8)
        +1 Biden - Texas (+9)
        +0.1 Biden - Iowa (the race couldn't be much tighter than this)
        (+9)


        If Biden somehow manages to hold on to all these states, then the electoral college result will be:

        422 - Biden
        116 - Trump
        Remember the conversation we had (back at that other forum) about Mitch McConnell being challenged in Kentucky? I created a minor thread about it, with an update:

        http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/sh...-met-his-match

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
          ...Deep down, I think Trump is an insecure child who is trying to prove to his long dead father that he is a success.
          Mary Trump's book is now out, and it appears that she agrees with me.

          "Donald continues to exist in the dark space between the fear of indifference and the fear of failure that led to his brother's destruction. Every time you hear Donald talking about how something is the greatest, the best, the biggest, the most tremendous, you have to remember that the man speaking is still in essential ways the same little boy who was desperately worried that he, like his older brother, is inadequate, and that he, too, will be destroyed for his inadequacy. At a very deep level his bragging and false bravado are not directed at the audience in front of him but at his audience of one, his long dead father." - Mary Trump, on page 202 of her book
          "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
          "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
            Mary Trump's book is now out, and it appears that she agrees with me.

            "Donald continues to exist in the dark space between the fear of indifference and the fear of failure that led to his brother's destruction. Every time you hear Donald talking about how something is the greatest, the best, the biggest, the most tremendous, you have to remember that the man speaking is still in essential ways the same little boy who was desperately worried that he, like his older brother, is inadequate, and that he, too, will be destroyed for his inadequacy. At a very deep level his bragging and false bravado are not directed at the audience in front of him but at his audience of one, his long dead father." - Mary Trump, on page 202 of her book
            I've only bought one anti-Trump book, and it was Fear - back when his presidency was relatively new.

            This one looks pretty interesting. I'll probably pick it up in the next few months...
            Last edited by Whateverman; 07-07-2020, 11:45 AM.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
              I've only bough one anti-Trump book, and it was Fear - back when his presidency was relatively new.

              This one looks pretty interesting. I'll probably pick it up in the next few months...
              As I recall, you recommended the Woodward book back in the "forum that cannot be named" (by the way, that forum is down again). I borrowed it from the public library, and it was a fascinating read. I'll definitely be reading the excerpts from Mary Trump's book that will be appearing everywhere during the next couple of weeks, but the entire book will likely reveal a Donald Trump that is so pathetic that I'm not sure if I could handle reading the whole book.

              I think the three sentence excerpt I quoted above likely provides an accurate summary of the whole book.
              "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
              "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
                Iowa and Missouri just flipped to Biden. Trump's lead in Arkansas was just reduced to +2, so that could be the next state to flip to Biden.

                The following is a list of all states that Trump won in 2016, but where Biden now leads. Trump's 2016 margin of victory is in red. Something is severely wrong with Trump's campaign, if he can't even hold on to a state like Missouri.

                +11 Biden - Wisconsin (+0.8)
                +11 Biden - Michigan (+0.2)
                +10 Biden - Pennsylvania (+0.7)
                +9 Biden - North Carolina (+4)
                +7 Biden - Arizona (+4)
                +6 Biden - Florida (+1)
                +2 Biden - Georgia (+5)
                +2 Biden - Missouri (+19)
                +1 Biden - Ohio (+8)
                +1 Biden - Texas (+9)
                +0.1 Biden - Iowa (the race couldn't be much tighter than this)
                (+9)


                If Biden somehow manages to hold on to all these states, then the electoral college result will be:

                422 - Biden
                116 - Trump
                Polls... snicker...
                That's what
                - She

                Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                - Stephen R. Donaldson

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
                  Polls... snicker...
                  And they still have to debate apparently. Three times. Only way I can see Biden getting out of a public unscripted appearance unscathed is if he manages to get the debates to be virtual, then they could set up a teleprompter for Biden (though he still struggles with that).

                  Comment

                  Related Threads

                  Collapse

                  Topics Statistics Last Post
                  Started by little_monkey, Yesterday, 04:19 PM
                  16 responses
                  120 views
                  0 likes
                  Last Post One Bad Pig  
                  Started by whag, 03-26-2024, 04:38 PM
                  53 responses
                  321 views
                  0 likes
                  Last Post Mountain Man  
                  Started by rogue06, 03-26-2024, 11:45 AM
                  25 responses
                  111 views
                  0 likes
                  Last Post rogue06
                  by rogue06
                   
                  Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 09:21 AM
                  33 responses
                  196 views
                  0 likes
                  Last Post Roy
                  by Roy
                   
                  Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 08:34 AM
                  84 responses
                  360 views
                  0 likes
                  Last Post JimL
                  by JimL
                   
                  Working...
                  X