Announcement

Collapse

Civics 101 Guidelines

Want to argue about politics? Healthcare reform? Taxes? Governments? You've come to the right place!

Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
See more
See less

2020 Senate Race

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 2020 Senate Race

    Unless something dramatic happens in the next few months, it appears that in November the Democrats will easily hold on to the House and take back the Presidency. The interesting race will be for the Senate.

    Two months ago, it was possible but unlikely that the Democrats would regain control of the Senate. Now, the odds seem to favour the Democrats by a substantial margin.

    Based upon the latest state level polls, if the election were to be held today the senate would end up being:

    54 - Democrats
    43 - Republicans
    3 - tied (Iowa, Kentucky, and South Carolina)


    With the exception of the three states which are currently tied, all tossup and close states would currently go to the Democrats, although in some cases their lead is pretty small (1 point in Kansas and "Georgia Special", and 2 points in North Carolina and Georgia).

    The above statistics based upon the latest polls posted on the fivethirtyeight website.
    Last edited by Reepicheep; 06-04-2020, 01:10 PM.
    "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
    "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

  • #2
    Knowing Chuck Schumer, the first thing Dems will do on taking the presidency and achieving majorities in both houses of congress will be fully restoring the filibuster rules to ensure Senate Republicans can block anything the Dems want to do. Seriously. Seems to be the standard tactic now from the big donors to bribe the Dem leadership to cede enough ground to Republicans to debilitate the Dems and ensure any real change is blocked. Cuomo's IDC in NY seemed to function similarly.
    "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
    "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
    "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

    Comment


    • #3
      One can only hope that Warren is made Majority Leader and she follows through on getting rid of the filibuster entirely. Other than judges you might as well leave McConnell in charge otherwise.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Starlight View Post
        Knowing Chuck Schumer, the first thing Dems will do on taking the presidency and achieving majorities in both houses of congress will be fully restoring the filibuster rules to ensure Senate Republicans can block anything the Dems want to do....
        Is that sentence what you actually intended?
        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
          Unless something dramatic happens in the next few months, it appears that in November the Democrats will easily hold on to the House and take back the Presidency. The interesting race will be for the Senate.

          Two months ago, it was possible but unlikely that the Democrats would regain control of the Senate. Now, the odds seem to favour the Democrats by a substantial margin.

          Based upon the latest state level polls, if the election were to be held today the senate would end up being:

          54 - Democrats
          43 - Republicans
          3 - tied (Iowa, Kentucky, and South Carolina)


          With the exception of the three states which are currently tied, all tossup and close states would currently go to the Democrats, although in some cases their lead is pretty small (1 point in Kansas and "Georgia Special", and 2 points in North Carolina and Georgia).

          The above statistics based upon the latest polls posted on the fivethirtyeight website.
          I can't remember how many years I see this prior to a national election. Yet somehow after the election to everyone's surprise, there are still Republicans and they still have some power in Washington. Based on headlines, you would have thought the Republican party would have gone out of existence by now.

          That being said, it's still too far until the election to project what is going to happen.
          "For I desire mercy, not sacrifice, and acknowledgment of God rather than burnt offerings." Hosea 6:6

          "Theology can be an intellectual entertainment." Metropolitan Anthony Bloom

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
            I can't remember how many years I see this prior to a national election. Yet somehow after the election to everyone's surprise, there are still Republicans and they still have some power in Washington. Based on headlines, you would have thought the Republican party would have gone out of existence by now.

            That being said, it's still too far until the election to project what is going to happen.
            Hush, brother - Democrats have this in the bag - they don't even need to show up at the polls!
            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
              54 - Democrats
              43 - Republicans
              3 - tied (Iowa, Kentucky, and South Carolina)
              In a poll which was released today, Iowa is now +2 for the Democrats, so the revised statistics are:

              55 - Democrats
              43 - Republicans
              2 - tied (Kentucky, and South Carolina)
              Last edited by Reepicheep; 06-05-2020, 09:03 AM.
              "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
              "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                Is that sentence what you actually intended?
                The Senate Dems self-sabotage due to incompetent and/or paid-to-fail leadership. They've talked about how they'll bring back the filibuster once they are in power. The net effect of that is that they'll be gifting the Republicans a way to block Dems doing anything, and we'll get a repeat of the Obama years.
                "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                  The Senate Dems self-sabotage due to incompetent and/or paid-to-fail leadership.
                  OK, thanks. Just checking.
                  The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                    The Senate Dems self-sabotage due to incompetent and/or paid-to-fail leadership. They've talked about how they'll bring back the filibuster once they are in power. The net effect of that is that they'll be gifting the Republicans a way to block Dems doing anything, and we'll get a repeat of the Obama years.
                    My understanding of the filibuster is that it makes the Senate a supermajority body which was never intended by the Founding Fathers. It actually came about by accident in the early 1800's when a Senator, can't remember who, proposed the "vote to close (end debate on) the previous motion." And rather than a simple majority vote to end debate, this vote to end debate on a bill would require a 2/3's vote, a supermajority. The Founders were specific in their intention that legislation require a simple majority in both the House and the Senate. They required a supermajority only in specific cases such as impeachment. The bill to end debate on a bill, "to close the previous motion", and take a final vote on the bill in question, requiring a 2/3's vote, changed the Founders intent regarding the Senate, changing it from simple majority to a supermajority body. The filibuster shouldn't exist in my opinion, and was never meant to exist, except in specific instances. I think though that it may be a valuable tool in specic cases in which the Founders didn't include, such as the appointment of, Judges, particularly Supreme court Justices, though I think that the 60 vote requirement may be to high a bar.
                    Last edited by JimL; 06-05-2020, 11:00 AM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
                      I can't remember how many years I see this prior to a national election. Yet somehow after the election to everyone's surprise, there are still Republicans and they still have some power in Washington. Based on headlines, you would have thought the Republican party would have gone out of existence by now.

                      That being said, it's still too far until the election to project what is going to happen.
                      During the supposed "Blue Wave" in 2018 Republicans actually gained a seat in the Senate.

                      I'm always still in trouble again

                      "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                      "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                      "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                        During the supposed "Blue Wave" in 2018 Republicans actually gained a seat in the Senate.
                        Sopposed?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                          During the supposed "Blue Wave" in 2018 Republicans actually gained a seat in the Senate.
                          So you're claiming it wasn't a "blue wave"? How would you define that term?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                            During the supposed "Blue Wave" in 2018 Republicans actually gained a seat in the Senate.
                            They still lost the super majority, so while it wasn't a tsunami, it was still a wave.

                            And especially so given how much the GOP got trounced in the House.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                              During the supposed "Blue Wave" in 2018 Republicans actually gained a seat in the Senate.
                              There wasn't much expectation of the Democrats doing well in the Senate in 2018, as the map for that year heavily favored the Republicans. The "Blue Wave" was in reference to the House, where they did pick up a lot of seats.

                              Comment

                              Related Threads

                              Collapse

                              Topics Statistics Last Post
                              Started by little_monkey, Yesterday, 04:19 PM
                              6 responses
                              45 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post whag
                              by whag
                               
                              Started by whag, 03-26-2024, 04:38 PM
                              42 responses
                              230 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post whag
                              by whag
                               
                              Started by rogue06, 03-26-2024, 11:45 AM
                              24 responses
                              104 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post Ronson
                              by Ronson
                               
                              Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 09:21 AM
                              32 responses
                              173 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post Hypatia_Alexandria  
                              Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 08:34 AM
                              73 responses
                              285 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post Hypatia_Alexandria  
                              Working...
                              X