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Thread: 2020 Senate Race

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    tWebber
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    2020 Senate Race

    Unless something dramatic happens in the next few months, it appears that in November the Democrats will easily hold on to the House and take back the Presidency. The interesting race will be for the Senate.

    Two months ago, it was possible but unlikely that the Democrats would regain control of the Senate. Now, the odds seem to favour the Democrats by a substantial margin.

    Based upon the latest state level polls, if the election were to be held today the senate would end up being:

    54 - Democrats
    43 - Republicans
    3 - tied (Iowa, Kentucky, and South Carolina)


    With the exception of the three states which are currently tied, all tossup and close states would currently go to the Democrats, although in some cases their lead is pretty small (1 point in Kansas and "Georgia Special", and 2 points in North Carolina and Georgia).

    The above statistics based upon the latest polls posted on the fivethirtyeight website.
    Last edited by Reepicheep; 06-04-2020 at 11:10 AM.

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    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Knowing Chuck Schumer, the first thing Dems will do on taking the presidency and achieving majorities in both houses of congress will be fully restoring the filibuster rules to ensure Senate Republicans can block anything the Dems want to do. Seriously. Seems to be the standard tactic now from the big donors to bribe the Dem leadership to cede enough ground to Republicans to debilitate the Dems and ensure any real change is blocked. Cuomo's IDC in NY seemed to function similarly.

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    tWebber
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    One can only hope that Warren is made Majority Leader and she follows through on getting rid of the filibuster entirely. Other than judges you might as well leave McConnell in charge otherwise.

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    Knowing Chuck Schumer, the first thing Dems will do on taking the presidency and achieving majorities in both houses of congress will be fully restoring the filibuster rules to ensure Senate Republicans can block anything the Dems want to do....
    Is that sentence what you actually intended?
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    tWebber Thoughtful Monk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reepicheep View Post
    Unless something dramatic happens in the next few months, it appears that in November the Democrats will easily hold on to the House and take back the Presidency. The interesting race will be for the Senate.

    Two months ago, it was possible but unlikely that the Democrats would regain control of the Senate. Now, the odds seem to favour the Democrats by a substantial margin.

    Based upon the latest state level polls, if the election were to be held today the senate would end up being:

    54 - Democrats
    43 - Republicans
    3 - tied (Iowa, Kentucky, and South Carolina)


    With the exception of the three states which are currently tied, all tossup and close states would currently go to the Democrats, although in some cases their lead is pretty small (1 point in Kansas and "Georgia Special", and 2 points in North Carolina and Georgia).

    The above statistics based upon the latest polls posted on the fivethirtyeight website.
    I can't remember how many years I see this prior to a national election. Yet somehow after the election to everyone's surprise, there are still Republicans and they still have some power in Washington. Based on headlines, you would have thought the Republican party would have gone out of existence by now.

    That being said, it's still too far until the election to project what is going to happen.
    "For I desire mercy, not sacrifice, and acknowledgment of God rather than burnt offerings." Hosea 6:6

    "Theology can be an intellectual entertainment." Metropolitan Anthony Bloom

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
    I can't remember how many years I see this prior to a national election. Yet somehow after the election to everyone's surprise, there are still Republicans and they still have some power in Washington. Based on headlines, you would have thought the Republican party would have gone out of existence by now.

    That being said, it's still too far until the election to project what is going to happen.
    Hush, brother - Democrats have this in the bag - they don't even need to show up at the polls!
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reepicheep View Post
    54 - Democrats
    43 - Republicans
    3 - tied (Iowa, Kentucky, and South Carolina)
    In a poll which was released today, Iowa is now +2 for the Democrats, so the revised statistics are:

    55 - Democrats
    43 - Republicans
    2 - tied (Kentucky, and South Carolina)
    Last edited by Reepicheep; 06-05-2020 at 07:03 AM.

  8. Amen Whateverman amen'd this post.
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    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Is that sentence what you actually intended?
    The Senate Dems self-sabotage due to incompetent and/or paid-to-fail leadership. They've talked about how they'll bring back the filibuster once they are in power. The net effect of that is that they'll be gifting the Republicans a way to block Dems doing anything, and we'll get a repeat of the Obama years.

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    The Senate Dems self-sabotage due to incompetent and/or paid-to-fail leadership.
    OK, thanks. Just checking.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    The Senate Dems self-sabotage due to incompetent and/or paid-to-fail leadership. They've talked about how they'll bring back the filibuster once they are in power. The net effect of that is that they'll be gifting the Republicans a way to block Dems doing anything, and we'll get a repeat of the Obama years.
    My understanding of the filibuster is that it makes the Senate a supermajority body which was never intended by the Founding Fathers. It actually came about by accident in the early 1800's when a Senator, can't remember who, proposed the "vote to close (end debate on) the previous motion." And rather than a simple majority vote to end debate, this vote to end debate on a bill would require a 2/3's vote, a supermajority. The Founders were specific in their intention that legislation require a simple majority in both the House and the Senate. They required a supermajority only in specific cases such as impeachment. The bill to end debate on a bill, "to close the previous motion", and take a final vote on the bill in question, requiring a 2/3's vote, changed the Founders intent regarding the Senate, changing it from simple majority to a supermajority body. The filibuster shouldn't exist in my opinion, and was never meant to exist, except in specific instances. I think though that it may be a valuable tool in specic cases in which the Founders didn't include, such as the appointment of, Judges, particularly Supreme court Justices, though I think that the 60 vote requirement may be to high a bar.
    Last edited by JimL; 06-05-2020 at 09:00 AM.

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