2020 Senate Race

[Reepicheep]

In a poll which was released today, Iowa is now +2 for the Democrats, so the revised statistics are:

55 - Democrats
43 - Republicans
2 - tied (Kentucky, and South Carolina)

In a poll released today, Kentucky just went +1 for the Democrats, so the current standings become:

56 - Democrats
43 - Republicans
1 - tied (South Carolina)

[Reepicheep]

According to the latest polls, the standings in the 2020 Senate race are as follows:

49 - Democrats
45 - Republicans
6 - toss-ups

So, to take decisive control of the Senate, Democrats need to win only 2 of the toss-up states (or 1 seat if Biden becomes President, since the VP has the deciding vote in the case of a 50/50 senate). And, if Biden does win, then the Republicans must sweep all six of the toss-up states to keep control of the Senate.

The latest polls for the toss-up states, and the dates each poll were taken, are:

+4 Democrats - Maine, July 2-3
+4 Democrats - Montana, June 17-26
+4 Democrats - Georgia, June 25-26
+2 Democrats - Iowa, June 23-28
+1 Democrats - Kansas, May 30 - June 1
TIE - South Carolina , May 23-26

I am cautiously optimistic that, as things stand now, the Democrats will sweep the Presidency, House, and Senate in November. And, personally, I won't be displeased if Susan Collins (R, Maine) and Lindsey Graham (R, South Carolina) lose their senate seats in November...

[Reepicheep]

According to the latest polls, the standings in the 2020 Senate race are as follows:

50 - Democrats
44 - Republicans
6 - toss-ups

As things stand now, Susan Collins will lose her senate seat, while Lindsey Graham's seat is a toss-up.

If Biden becomes President, then 50 seats is sufficient for the Democrats to control the Senate. To obtain an absolute majority, the Democrats will have to win one or more of the following senate races:

+2 Democrats - Iowa
TIE - Kansas
TIE - Alaska
+1 Republicans - Montana
+1 Republicans - South Carolina
+3 Republicans - Georgia

If I had to guess, I'd say the Democrats will pick up either Iowa or Kansas, which will give them a 51-49 majority.

[Reepicheep]

Over the past month, I'd have to say that the Republicans have gained a bit of ground in the race to control the senate. The current situation:

50 - Democrats
49 - Republicans
1 - toss-up (Iowa)

Simplifying slightly, the current probabilities are

65% - Democrats win Iowa or a "leaning R" state and have a Senate majority
10% - Democrats lose Iowa, but control a 50/50 Senate by controlling the White House
25% - Republicans win Iowa and one or more "leaning D" states, and have a Senate majority

[Whateverman]

Last edited by Reepicheep; Today, 12:32 PM. Reason: Replaced all occurrences of Ohio with Iowa (why do I keep making that mistake???)

If you're anything like me, the fact that both states are 4 letters long, and both begin/end with vowels - would be enough to cause me to confuse them from time to time :)