Originally posted by Whateverman
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Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate
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"As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths." Isaiah 3:12
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostYou have been deceiving people then. This is nothing like the normal flu or even a bad flu. It's more like the Spanish flu of the early 20th century. or worse. 128,000 dead in 4 months, not 6, with massive efforts to contain it. Efforts that iff applied to a normal flu season would cut its death toll dramatically. Methods that have produced what may well be 5 fold reduction in deaths would not be an unrealistic estimate at this point based on the trajectory at the time they were out in place.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostIf my numbers have been deceiving people, it is because the California statistics that are deceiving people. It is because the Texas statistics that are deceiving people. I am just reporting what the statistics are. We have more 50-100 million fewer deaths than the Spanish flu (based on the 50-100 million estimated deaths at that time). There would be 230million dead today if were were anywhere near to the Spanish Flu. https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19...e-spanish-flu/
Yes, it's American Spectator, so some of our extremist leftists libs will have a cow, but it's a service I provide --- if we didn't let them blow off steam, their heads would explode (proper attribution to JimL for the Heads Explode reference)
The coronavirus doomsayers could not even wait until the fall for the apocalyptic announcements of the dreaded second wave. Because the red states recklessly loosened their lockdowns, we are now told, the US is seeing a dangerous spike in coronavirus cases. ‘EXPERTS SKETCH GLOOMY PICTURE OF VIRUS SPREAD: FAUCI TELLS OF “DISTURBING” WAVE, WITH A VACCINE MONTHS AWAY,’ read the front-page lead headline in the New York Times on Wednesday. ‘VIRUS SPREAD AKIN TO “FOREST FIRE”’ read another front page headline in the Los Angeles Times on Monday, quoting Michael Osterholm, one of the media’s favorite public health experts. Osterholm had told NBC’s Meet the Press: ‘I’m actually of the mind right now — I think this is more like a forest fire. I don’t think that this is going to slow down.’
The ‘this’ is an uptick in daily new cases from 19,002 on June 9 to 38,386 on June 24. The high to date in new daily cases was on April 24 — 39,072. Since April 24, the daily case count started declining, then began rising again after around June 9. What virtually every fear-mongering story on America’s allegedly precarious situation leaves out, however, is the steadily dropping daily death numbers — from a high of 2,693 on April 21 to 808 on June 24. That April high was driven by New York City and its environs; those New York death numbers have declined, but they have not been replaced by deaths in the rest of the country. This should be good news. Instead, it is no news.
The New York Times put three reporters on a full-page article on Texas, published June 25 under the headline ‘AS NEW CASES SOAR, THE GOVERNOR FACES FALLOUT FROM A RUSH TO REOPEN.’ The story never mentioned coronavirus deaths. Texas’s daily death count has bounced around since early May without a sharp rise — a high of 63 new deaths on May 21, 42 on June 24. Arizona, another state facing media contempt, finally beat its earlier high of 67 deaths on May 8 with 79 deaths on June 24. Between those two dates, however, the curve was steady. The Arizona mortalities are concentrated on Indian reservations and to a lesser extent around the Mexican border.
.......The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostIf my numbers have been deceiving people, it is because the California statistics that are deceiving people. It is because the Texas statistics that are deceiving people. I am just reporting what the statistics are. We have more 50-100 million fewer deaths than the Spanish flu (based on the 50-100 million estimated deaths at that time). There would be 230million dead today if were were anywhere near to the Spanish Flu. https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19...e-spanish-flu/
I consider a better name for this thread is 'Getting sadistic about the coronavirus death rate.'Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostThere is no expectation, I hope, that the current COVID-19 pandemic is equivalent to the 1917-1920 flu pandemic, but the fatality count of this pandemic is higher than the 2009-2010 swine flu pandemic.
I consider a better name for this thread is 'Getting sadistic about the coronavirus death rate.'
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Deaths lag cases by a few weeks. If, in a few weeks, deaths haven't increased despite cases soaring, there'll be an interesting conversation to be had. Seems a bit weird to count on a miracle in advance though."I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
"Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
"[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein
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Originally posted by Starlight View PostDeaths lag cases by a few weeks. If, in a few weeks, deaths haven't increased despite cases soaring, there'll be an interesting conversation to be had. Seems a bit weird to count on a miracle in advance though.
I do, however, see conflicting reports of "hospitals being overfilled" and claims that hospitals are pretty much empty.The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by Cow Poke View PostIt will be what it will be. Personally, I'm exercising greater caution, and encouraging others within my spheres of influence to do likewise.
I do, however, see conflicting reports of "hospitals being overfilled" and claims that hospitals are pretty much empty.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostThen there are the reports that vaccine development is being hampered because the virus is fading out much more quickly than predicted, giving researchers an insufficient number of subjects for adequate testing. The reports oddly make this sound like a bad thing.The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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I think one reason for the uptick in cases recently is because we have various states that did not have much of an infection earlier, and now are just getting it, and they are causing the case numbers to rise slightly, while the states where it has mostly run it's course are dropping. The US isn't a unified whole population wise and the numbers need to be taken on a state by state basis, as the virus travels in waves across populations.
The opening of businesses also contributes to rises in infections, but the isolation was never meant to STOP the virus, but to flatten the bell curve. At the very beginning Fauci and crew told us that by flattening the curve, we are drawing out the length of time till the virus goes away, but the goal was to keep the curve flatter so that our healthcare systems were not overwhelmed all at once. This seems to be what is happening.
Until we get a vaccine, the virus will continue to spread through the population centers in various states. The masks are not going to stop it. They were never meant to. Neither was social distancing or isolation.
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Meanwhile, from CDC....
And they categorize deaths as "pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC)"
Mortality
Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.5% during week 24 to 6.9% during week 25 but remained above baseline. This is the ninth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC, but this may change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.
Hospitalizations
Cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates since March 1, 2020, are updated weekly. The overall cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rate is 98.4 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people aged 65 years and older (297.6 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (148.6 per 100,000).
The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by Cow Poke View PostMeanwhile, from CDC....
And they categorize deaths as "pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC)"
Mortality
Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.5% during week 24 to 6.9% during week 25 but remained above baseline. This is the ninth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC, but this may change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.
Hospitalizations
Cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates since March 1, 2020, are updated weekly. The overall cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rate is 98.4 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people aged 65 years and older (297.6 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (148.6 per 100,000).
But infection rates are soaring. And that will very likely, eventually, translate into deaths increasing again. That is what the virus does.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostBut infection rates are soaring. And that will very likely, eventually, translate into deaths increasing again.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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