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Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

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  • Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

    Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

    Please note - this is about the DEATH RATE --- this is NOT yet another "ORANGE MAN BAD" thread.


    With coronavirus infections rising again across the nation, the question of just how lethal the *virus is has become more crucial than ever.

    Early in the epidemic, public-health experts feared the virus might kill up to 2 percent of those infected, potentially causing millions of deaths in the United States and tens of millions worldwide. Those terrifying estimates prompted the lockdowns that have done incalculable harm to the economy, shattered small businesses and left children traumatized and untold numbers suffering from brutal isolation.

    But we now know much more about the virus. And we know its lethality is lower than we originally feared — and highly concentrated in the very elderly and people with serious health problems.

    In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention *esti*mated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

    Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the *so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.

    Tracking deaths is relatively easy. But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory *viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.

    Thus, in the early stages of an epidemic, scientists must guess at the number of mild and hidden infections.

    Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.
    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

  • #2
    Lethality without rates of permanent injury is a misleading statistic.

    Pulmonary, cardiac, neurological - there are surprisingly high rates of permanent damage caused by this corona virus. Saying the virus only causes death 1 / 400 times makes it seem like the flu...

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2763524
    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...al%20problems.
    Last edited by Whateverman; 06-26-2020, 04:34 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
      Lethality without rates of permanent injury is a misleading statistic.

      Pulmonary, cardiac, neurological - there are surprisingly high rates of permanent damage caused by this corona virus. Saying the virus only causes death 1 / 400 times makes it seem like the flu...

      https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2763524
      https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...al%20problems.
      Can you relate to the death rate we were told to expect, and what actually we're seeing?

      (let's pretend we're friends )
      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

      Comment


      • #4
        I think the only thing we can say for certain at this point is that the China flu is nowhere near as deadly as the early models and predictions indicated.
        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
        Than a fool in the eyes of God


        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

        Comment


        • #5
          The current international figures are 491K dead, 4.88M recovered. That's a 10% death rate worldwide.

          But many non-OCED countries aren't rich enough or have good enough health systems to test for cases unless they are serious. So let's look at some individual countries that we're relatively sure were doing a good job of finding the cases they had.

          One good example is my own country of New Zealand, where the government did pretty exhaustive testing, and was able to eliminate the virus from the country. Extensive community testing here found that 2.2% of virus cases were asymptomatic with the people not reporting any symptoms nor realizing they were sick, despite having the virus. (Though an Australian meta-study that compiled results from all around the world of such asymptomatic infections, found the asymptomatic infection rate worldwide appears to be around 15%, so lets use that number in the calculations.) Of those found to have the virus in New Zealand, 1484 recovered and 22 died. Including the 15% asymptomatic cases that we'll presume the government didn't find, makes the death rate here in NZ of 1.27%.

          Australia, likewise, makes a good sample case as they are a also a rich country with a good healthcare system that was able to do extensive testing and stay on top of all their cases. They had 6,958 recoveries, and 104 deaths. Given an estimated 15% undetected asymptomatic cases, that gives them a death rate in Australia of 1.28%.

          To pick some other countries where the numbers are going to be larger but less reliable and accurate:

          US. 127K deaths, 770K recovered. Gives 12.3% death rate if undetected asymptomatic rate is 15%.
          Germany. 9024 deaths, 177K recovered. Gives 4.2% death rate if undetected asymptomatic rate is 15%.
          Italy. 34,708 deaths, 188K recovered. Gives 13.6% death rate if undetected asymptomatic rate is 15%.

          I suspect in these larger countries the death rate is not truly that high and is in fact close to that in NZ and Aus, and that those huge death rates are a reflection of just how many cases are going undetected in those larger countries.
          "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
          "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
          "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Starlight View Post
            The current international figures .....
            My apologies.... first line of the cite is "With coronavirus infections rising again across the nation, the question of just how lethal the *virus is has become more crucial than ever."

            Specifically talking about here in the US --- Not that other deaths don't matter (preempting criticism from the leftist nutters), but this is about here in the US.
            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
              I think the only thing we can say for certain at this point is that the China flu is nowhere near as deadly as the early models and predictions indicated.
              And that's what I want to explore. Here in the States.
              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                but this is about here in the US.
                Okay. Your current US death rate from the US data is 12.3%, as per my post.

                For international-data-based reasons I suspect it isn't truly that high due to US data being faulty because I suspect you are failing to detect 10 people who have it for every 1 person you find testing positive, because the Covid death rate in areas of the world where we have really good quality data is 1.3%.
                "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                  Okay. Your current US death rate from the US data is 12.3%, as per my post.

                  For international-data-based reasons I suspect it isn't truly that high due to US data being faulty because I suspect you are failing to detect 10 people who have it for every 1 person you find testing positive, because the Covid death rate in areas of the world where we have really good quality data is 1.3%.
                  Naw, it's not, either.

                  But I gotsa hasta go to WallyWorld, so I'll be back!
                  The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                    Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

                    Please note - this is about the DEATH RATE --- this is NOT yet another "ORANGE MAN BAD" thread.


                    With coronavirus infections rising again across the nation, the question of just how lethal the *virus is has become more crucial than ever.

                    Early in the epidemic, public-health experts feared the virus might kill up to 2 percent of those infected, potentially causing millions of deaths in the United States and tens of millions worldwide. Those terrifying estimates prompted the lockdowns that have done incalculable harm to the economy, shattered small businesses and left children traumatized and untold numbers suffering from brutal isolation.

                    But we now know much more about the virus. And we know its lethality is lower than we originally feared — and highly concentrated in the very elderly and people with serious health problems.

                    In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention *esti*mated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

                    Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the *so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.

                    Tracking deaths is relatively easy. But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory *viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.

                    Thus, in the early stages of an epidemic, scientists must guess at the number of mild and hidden infections.

                    Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.
                    Interesting, but incomplete
                    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                    go with the flow the river knows . . .

                    Frank

                    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                      Okay. Your current US death rate from the US data is 12.3%, as per my post.

                      For international-data-based reasons I suspect it isn't truly that high due to US data being faulty because I suspect you are failing to detect 10 people who have it for every 1 person you find testing positive, because the Covid death rate in areas of the world where we have really good quality data is 1.3%.
                      The death rate is determined primarily on percent of people who die in a year of the population of an area. I calculated the death rate in Dallas County, Texas, for the last 90 days. The number of deaths was less that than 0.03% of the population. They had ICU beds that would handle roughly 250 people who needed it -- which (at 4% of all severe cases) would mean that 6000 people would have been hospitalized before there could be 250 transferring to ICU beds.

                      The deaths per day have not radically changed since the week of April 12. This seems to say that quarantines did nothing to reduce the virus. There are now 344 COVID-19-attributed deaths (https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavi...riday/2396288/). If this continues to the 6month mark, we have 688 deaths (rough figure). This is still short of the 750 that would die during flu season in Dallas County (based on countrywide flu death rate).


                      There are 10 more ICU beds available today than were available on Monday in the city of Dallas. Only half of the ICU beds are utilizing ventilators -- which may mean half of the ICU is being used for non-coronavirus patients.

                      My calculations on Monday are here: http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/sh...514#post753514

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                        Naw, it's not, either.

                        But I gotsa hasta go to WallyWorld, so I'll be back!
                        Starlight's analysis is basically spot on. Covid 19 mortalities, if you include asymptomatic or cases too mild to trigger a test, tend between 1 and 2%. If you just test symptomatic cases, then the mortality for those cases (naive) for the us is 127640/2552956 or just a hair under 5%. Worst case varies depending on source, but using the numbers at worldometers you see 11%. That is deaths/recovered.

                        But what that means is that for the 40,000 new cases reported today in the US, AT LEAST 5% or 2000 of them will die over the next 2 months. But it could be as high as 4400.

                        Now, had we dealt with this disease responsibly - more inline with how the EU has handled it, we could expect less than 5% of that number of people sick and less than 5% of that number to die from covid-19 over the next 2 months. We know that is possible and realistic - the EU has done it.

                        with our current average daily cases count (which is increasing exponentially right now), even if it stays flat, that is AT LEAST 1500 people per day that are given a death sentence. If that stays the same (and we know it's going up for at least a little while), that means that by September 1, 65*1500 0r 97,500 people will get a death sentence from Covid19, and they will all be dead by mid october. That means that our death count in the US, if it does not get worse (and it is getting worse right now) will be OVER 200,000 by early fall.
                        Last edited by oxmixmudd; 06-26-2020, 10:51 PM.
                        My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                        If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                        This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by oxmixmudd
                          I thought you were intelligent enough to figure out the numbers. I'm giving you actual numbers so you should not be too confused.

                          If this were a real pandemic, there would have been a 100 deaths a day in Dallas County. There would be a big increase since Memorial Day.

                          If you find fault with the actual numbers, please let me know where I have erred. If you are expecting some magical leap of death rates, tell us how this magical leap will happen.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                            Starlight's analysis is basically spot on. Covid 19 mortalities, if you include asymptomatic or cases too mild to trigger a test, tend between 1 and 2%. If you just test symptomatic cases, then the mortality for those cases (naive) for the us is 127640/2552956 or just a hair under 5%. Worst case varies depending on source, but using the numbers at worldometers you see 11%. That is deaths/recovered.

                            But what that means is that for the 40,000 new cases reported today in the US, AT LEAST 5% or 2000 of them will die over the next 2 months. But it could be as high as 4400.

                            Now, had we dealt with this disease responsibly - more inline with how the EU has handled it, we could expect less than 5% of that number of people sick and less than 5% of that number to die from covid-19 over the next 2 months. We know that is possible and realistic - the EU has done it.

                            with our current average daily cases count (which is increasing exponentially right now), even if it stays flat, that is AT LEAST 1500 people per day that are given a death sentence. If that stays the same (and we know it's going up for at least a little while), that means that by September 1, 65*1500 0r 97,500 people will get a death sentence from Covid19, and they will all be dead by mid october. That means that our death count in the US, if it does not get worse (and it is getting worse right now) will be OVER 200,000 by early fall.
                            Please explain how COVID-19 has been so passive in California and Texas for people who caught this before March 15 but now will be leaping into great numbers of deaths after having it for 90 days already. This is a never-before-seen phenomena that you are proposing here. I forgot to show the graph of deaths for Dallas since the quarantine started. There are no big benefits inndicated by the quarantine and there are no big spikes -- like 20 a day deaths in a week.

                            DallasCountyDeathsUptoJune26.jpg

                            It is Shuny, Starlight and Oxmix who need to defend the supernatural spike of deaths that will suddenly appear in places like Dallas County. If your argument makes sense, we'll be inclined to accept your figures.
                            Last edited by mikewhitney; 06-26-2020, 11:20 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                              But what that means is that for the 40,000 new cases reported today in the US, AT LEAST 5% or 2000 of them will die over the next 2 months. But it could be as high as 4400.
                              In some countries the number of deaths seems to have dropped way off despite cases remaining the same or increasing. The virus doesn't seem to have mutated in any interesting ways though, so the underlying cause of this effect (if it's real) is unknown (my own wild speculation as to causes would suggest 1. something to do with vitamin d levels increasing due to summer in the northern hemisphere, or 2. widespread exposure to background levels of the virus acting like a vaccine where people's immune systems fight off tiny amounts of the virus and then can handle it okay when they are actually infected by it at a later date). So it's possible that the same drop-off in death rate might occur in the US. I guess we'll see.


                              Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                              The death rate is determined primarily on percent of people who die in a year of the population of an area.
                              No. The death rate for an infectious disease is what percentage of the people who get it die from it. Your numbers would only be right if 100% in the area caught the disease.
                              Last edited by Starlight; 06-26-2020, 11:13 PM.
                              "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                              "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                              "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                              Comment

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