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Thread: Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

    Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

    Please note - this is about the DEATH RATE --- this is NOT yet another "ORANGE MAN BAD" thread.


    With coronavirus infections rising again across the nation, the question of just how lethal the *virus is has become more crucial than ever.

    Early in the epidemic, public-health experts feared the virus might kill up to 2 percent of those infected, potentially causing millions of deaths in the United States and tens of millions worldwide. Those terrifying estimates prompted the lockdowns that have done incalculable harm to the economy, shattered small businesses and left children traumatized and untold numbers suffering from brutal isolation.

    But we now know much more about the virus. And we know its lethality is lower than we originally feared — and highly concentrated in the very elderly and people with serious health problems.

    In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention *esti*mated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

    Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the *so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.

    Tracking deaths is relatively easy. But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory *viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.

    Thus, in the early stages of an epidemic, scientists must guess at the number of mild and hidden infections.

    Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    tWebber Whateverman's Avatar
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    Lethality without rates of permanent injury is a misleading statistic.

    Pulmonary, cardiac, neurological - there are surprisingly high rates of permanent damage caused by this corona virus. Saying the virus only causes death 1 / 400 times makes it seem like the flu...

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2763524
    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...al%20problems.
    Last edited by Whateverman; 06-26-2020 at 02:34 PM.

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Whateverman View Post
    Lethality without rates of permanent injury is a misleading statistic.

    Pulmonary, cardiac, neurological - there are surprisingly high rates of permanent damage caused by this corona virus. Saying the virus only causes death 1 / 400 times makes it seem like the flu...

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2763524
    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...al%20problems.
    Can you relate to the death rate we were told to expect, and what actually we're seeing?

    (let's pretend we're friends )
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    I think the only thing we can say for certain at this point is that the China flu is nowhere near as deadly as the early models and predictions indicated.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    The current international figures are 491K dead, 4.88M recovered. That's a 10% death rate worldwide.

    But many non-OCED countries aren't rich enough or have good enough health systems to test for cases unless they are serious. So let's look at some individual countries that we're relatively sure were doing a good job of finding the cases they had.

    One good example is my own country of New Zealand, where the government did pretty exhaustive testing, and was able to eliminate the virus from the country. Extensive community testing here found that 2.2% of virus cases were asymptomatic with the people not reporting any symptoms nor realizing they were sick, despite having the virus. (Though an Australian meta-study that compiled results from all around the world of such asymptomatic infections, found the asymptomatic infection rate worldwide appears to be around 15%, so lets use that number in the calculations.) Of those found to have the virus in New Zealand, 1484 recovered and 22 died. Including the 15% asymptomatic cases that we'll presume the government didn't find, makes the death rate here in NZ of 1.27%.

    Australia, likewise, makes a good sample case as they are a also a rich country with a good healthcare system that was able to do extensive testing and stay on top of all their cases. They had 6,958 recoveries, and 104 deaths. Given an estimated 15% undetected asymptomatic cases, that gives them a death rate in Australia of 1.28%.

    To pick some other countries where the numbers are going to be larger but less reliable and accurate:

    US. 127K deaths, 770K recovered. Gives 12.3% death rate if undetected asymptomatic rate is 15%.
    Germany. 9024 deaths, 177K recovered. Gives 4.2% death rate if undetected asymptomatic rate is 15%.
    Italy. 34,708 deaths, 188K recovered. Gives 13.6% death rate if undetected asymptomatic rate is 15%.

    I suspect in these larger countries the death rate is not truly that high and is in fact close to that in NZ and Aus, and that those huge death rates are a reflection of just how many cases are going undetected in those larger countries.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    The current international figures .....
    My apologies.... first line of the cite is "With coronavirus infections rising again across the nation, the question of just how lethal the *virus is has become more crucial than ever."

    Specifically talking about here in the US --- Not that other deaths don't matter (preempting criticism from the leftist nutters), but this is about here in the US.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    I think the only thing we can say for certain at this point is that the China flu is nowhere near as deadly as the early models and predictions indicated.
    And that's what I want to explore. Here in the States.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    but this is about here in the US.
    Okay. Your current US death rate from the US data is 12.3%, as per my post.

    For international-data-based reasons I suspect it isn't truly that high due to US data being faulty because I suspect you are failing to detect 10 people who have it for every 1 person you find testing positive, because the Covid death rate in areas of the world where we have really good quality data is 1.3%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    Okay. Your current US death rate from the US data is 12.3%, as per my post.

    For international-data-based reasons I suspect it isn't truly that high due to US data being faulty because I suspect you are failing to detect 10 people who have it for every 1 person you find testing positive, because the Covid death rate in areas of the world where we have really good quality data is 1.3%.
    Naw, it's not, either.

    But I gotsa hasta go to WallyWorld, so I'll be back!
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

    Please note - this is about the DEATH RATE --- this is NOT yet another "ORANGE MAN BAD" thread.


    With coronavirus infections rising again across the nation, the question of just how lethal the *virus is has become more crucial than ever.

    Early in the epidemic, public-health experts feared the virus might kill up to 2 percent of those infected, potentially causing millions of deaths in the United States and tens of millions worldwide. Those terrifying estimates prompted the lockdowns that have done incalculable harm to the economy, shattered small businesses and left children traumatized and untold numbers suffering from brutal isolation.

    But we now know much more about the virus. And we know its lethality is lower than we originally feared — and highly concentrated in the very elderly and people with serious health problems.

    In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention *esti*mated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

    Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the *so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.

    Tracking deaths is relatively easy. But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory *viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.

    Thus, in the early stages of an epidemic, scientists must guess at the number of mild and hidden infections.

    Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.
    Interesting, but incomplete
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

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