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Thread: Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

  1. #11
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    Okay. Your current US death rate from the US data is 12.3%, as per my post.

    For international-data-based reasons I suspect it isn't truly that high due to US data being faulty because I suspect you are failing to detect 10 people who have it for every 1 person you find testing positive, because the Covid death rate in areas of the world where we have really good quality data is 1.3%.
    The death rate is determined primarily on percent of people who die in a year of the population of an area. I calculated the death rate in Dallas County, Texas, for the last 90 days. The number of deaths was less that than 0.03% of the population. They had ICU beds that would handle roughly 250 people who needed it -- which (at 4% of all severe cases) would mean that 6000 people would have been hospitalized before there could be 250 transferring to ICU beds.

    The deaths per day have not radically changed since the week of April 12. This seems to say that quarantines did nothing to reduce the virus. There are now 344 COVID-19-attributed deaths (https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavi...riday/2396288/). If this continues to the 6month mark, we have 688 deaths (rough figure). This is still short of the 750 that would die during flu season in Dallas County (based on countrywide flu death rate).


    There are 10 more ICU beds available today than were available on Monday in the city of Dallas. Only half of the ICU beds are utilizing ventilators -- which may mean half of the ICU is being used for non-coronavirus patients.

    My calculations on Monday are here: http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/sh...514#post753514

  2. Amen shunyadragon amen'd this post.
  3. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Naw, it's not, either.

    But I gotsa hasta go to WallyWorld, so I'll be back!
    Starlight's analysis is basically spot on. Covid 19 mortalities, if you include asymptomatic or cases too mild to trigger a test, tend between 1 and 2%. If you just test symptomatic cases, then the mortality for those cases (naive) for the us is 127640/2552956 or just a hair under 5%. Worst case varies depending on source, but using the numbers at worldometers you see 11%. That is deaths/recovered.

    But what that means is that for the 40,000 new cases reported today in the US, AT LEAST 5% or 2000 of them will die over the next 2 months. But it could be as high as 4400.

    Now, had we dealt with this disease responsibly - more inline with how the EU has handled it, we could expect less than 5% of that number of people sick and less than 5% of that number to die from covid-19 over the next 2 months. We know that is possible and realistic - the EU has done it.

    with our current average daily cases count (which is increasing exponentially right now), even if it stays flat, that is AT LEAST 1500 people per day that are given a death sentence. If that stays the same (and we know it's going up for at least a little while), that means that by September 1, 65*1500 0r 97,500 people will get a death sentence from Covid19, and they will all be dead by mid october. That means that our death count in the US, if it does not get worse (and it is getting worse right now) will be OVER 200,000 by early fall.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 06-26-2020 at 08:51 PM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  4. Amen shunyadragon amen'd this post.
  5. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    I thought you were intelligent enough to figure out the numbers. I'm giving you actual numbers so you should not be too confused.

    If this were a real pandemic, there would have been a 100 deaths a day in Dallas County. There would be a big increase since Memorial Day.

    If you find fault with the actual numbers, please let me know where I have erred. If you are expecting some magical leap of death rates, tell us how this magical leap will happen.

  6. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    Starlight's analysis is basically spot on. Covid 19 mortalities, if you include asymptomatic or cases too mild to trigger a test, tend between 1 and 2%. If you just test symptomatic cases, then the mortality for those cases (naive) for the us is 127640/2552956 or just a hair under 5%. Worst case varies depending on source, but using the numbers at worldometers you see 11%. That is deaths/recovered.

    But what that means is that for the 40,000 new cases reported today in the US, AT LEAST 5% or 2000 of them will die over the next 2 months. But it could be as high as 4400.

    Now, had we dealt with this disease responsibly - more inline with how the EU has handled it, we could expect less than 5% of that number of people sick and less than 5% of that number to die from covid-19 over the next 2 months. We know that is possible and realistic - the EU has done it.

    with our current average daily cases count (which is increasing exponentially right now), even if it stays flat, that is AT LEAST 1500 people per day that are given a death sentence. If that stays the same (and we know it's going up for at least a little while), that means that by September 1, 65*1500 0r 97,500 people will get a death sentence from Covid19, and they will all be dead by mid october. That means that our death count in the US, if it does not get worse (and it is getting worse right now) will be OVER 200,000 by early fall.
    Please explain how COVID-19 has been so passive in California and Texas for people who caught this before March 15 but now will be leaping into great numbers of deaths after having it for 90 days already. This is a never-before-seen phenomena that you are proposing here. I forgot to show the graph of deaths for Dallas since the quarantine started. There are no big benefits inndicated by the quarantine and there are no big spikes -- like 20 a day deaths in a week.

    DallasCountyDeathsUptoJune26.jpg

    It is Shuny, Starlight and Oxmix who need to defend the supernatural spike of deaths that will suddenly appear in places like Dallas County. If your argument makes sense, we'll be inclined to accept your figures.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 06-26-2020 at 09:20 PM.

  7. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    But what that means is that for the 40,000 new cases reported today in the US, AT LEAST 5% or 2000 of them will die over the next 2 months. But it could be as high as 4400.
    In some countries the number of deaths seems to have dropped way off despite cases remaining the same or increasing. The virus doesn't seem to have mutated in any interesting ways though, so the underlying cause of this effect (if it's real) is unknown (my own wild speculation as to causes would suggest 1. something to do with vitamin d levels increasing due to summer in the northern hemisphere, or 2. widespread exposure to background levels of the virus acting like a vaccine where people's immune systems fight off tiny amounts of the virus and then can handle it okay when they are actually infected by it at a later date). So it's possible that the same drop-off in death rate might occur in the US. I guess we'll see.


    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    The death rate is determined primarily on percent of people who die in a year of the population of an area.
    No. The death rate for an infectious disease is what percentage of the people who get it die from it. Your numbers would only be right if 100% in the area caught the disease.
    Last edited by Starlight; 06-26-2020 at 09:13 PM.

  8. Amen Roy amen'd this post.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    In some countries the number of deaths seems to have dropped way off despite cases remaining the same or increasing. The virus doesn't seem to have mutated in any interesting ways though, so the underlying cause of this effect (if it's real) is unknown (my own wild speculation as to causes would suggest 1. something to do with vitamin d levels increasing due to summer in the northern hemisphere, or 2. widespread exposure to background levels of the virus acting like a vaccine where people's immune systems fight off tiny amounts of the virus and then can handle it okay when they are actually infected by it at a later date). So it's possible that the same drop-off in death rate might occur in the US. I guess we'll see.


    No. The death rate for an infectious disease is what percentage of the people who get it die from it. Your numbers would only be right if 100% in the area caught the disease.
    I am using regular statistical conventions. In our sample case of Dallas County, fewer people have died from coronavirus than have died from flu over a 90 day period. The coronavirus has not exceeded the flu deaths -- which is what we would have expected if the coronavirus were more dangerous than the flu. If we tested flu virus for those who went to the hospital, we might have 30 to 50 percent deaths by flu -- because it is the sick people who get tested. Please explain how a big leap of deaths (after the worst has passed) will suddenly happen. I have presented the Dallas County details that showed nothing really changing after quarantine started and nothing really changed after quarantines ended.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    In some countries the number of deaths seems to have dropped way off despite cases remaining the same or increasing. The virus doesn't seem to have mutated in any interesting ways though, so the underlying cause of this effect (if it's real) is unknown (my own wild speculation as to causes would suggest 1. something to do with vitamin d levels increasing due to summer in the northern hemisphere, or 2. widespread exposure to background levels of the virus acting like a vaccine where people's immune systems fight off tiny amounts of the virus and then can handle it okay when they are actually infected by it at a later date). So it's possible that the same drop-off in death rate might occur in the US. I guess we'll see.


    No. The death rate for an infectious disease is what percentage of the people who get it die from it. Your numbers would only be right if 100% in the area caught the disease.
    I've told him the same thing. He's one of those that cant comprehend he could be doing it wrong. But it is good for such a person to hear it from multiple sources.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  11. Amen shunyadragon amen'd this post.
  12. #18
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    I thought you were intelligent enough to figure out the numbers. I'm giving you actual numbers so you should not be too confused.

    If this were a real pandemic, there would have been a 100 deaths a day in Dallas County. There would be a big increase since Memorial Day.

    If you find fault with the actual numbers, please let me know where I have erred. If you are expecting some magical leap of death rates, tell us how this magical leap will happen.
    I mistakenly Amened your post, nonetheless Oxmixmudd and Starlight are correct.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  13. #19
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    I thought you were intelligent enough to figure out the numbers. I'm giving you actual numbers so you should not be too confused.

    If this were a real pandemic, there would have been a 100 deaths a day in Dallas County. There would be a big increase since Memorial Day.

    If you find fault with the actual numbers, please let me know where I have erred. If you are expecting some magical leap of death rates, tell us how this magical leap will happen.
    Again - I was specifically asking about US deaths.....

    I think the problem is in the way the math is done.
    If I asked "what are my chances from dying in a car crash", you'd compare the number of vehicle crash deaths to the population in general.
    You wouldn't try to sort out "only the drivers".
    Same with chances of dying in a plane crash. You wouldn't try to figure out how many people have ever been on a plane.

    So there are two calculations.

    What are my chances of dying of COVID? First, I have to GET Covid ---- then I have to die from it.

    If you want a much higher result, then only count those who have contracted Covid, and figure how many of them have died.

    AND, in the cite I posted in the other thread, a number of states are now reporting "probably deaths".
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  14. #20
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    OK, so here's a good example of what I'm talking about....

    The Truth About What's Going On With Covid Right Now

    If you want to understand what's going on with #COVID19 right now, the best place to look is Florida, because they do the best job of anyone in terms of data transparency. Note the different age distributions of cases, hospitalizations, & deaths in their regular report.




    The full report is here: floridadisaster.org/globalassets/c…. The point is that not all hospitalizations are the same. If you're 85 and you've been hospitalized with #COVID19, the risk of death is 61%. If you're 35-44, the risk is 5%. If you're 25-34, 2%.
    So, when you see reports about rising numbers of hospitalizations, it's critical to ask: what's the age distribution of the people being hospitalized? We talking about elderly or young people? Without that information, "hospitalizations" statistics are far less useful.
    For those who like to see this data visualized, here's a chart of the mortality rate of hospitalized #COVID19 patients by age bracket (in honor of UF grad @GreggGirvan the bars are in retro Gator blue). Not all COVID hospitalizations are created equal.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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