Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

[Darth Executor]

Color added by me.

That point always gets lost whenever some pandemic-denier makes a COVID-19 / flu analogy. If we practiced social distancing, and wore masks and shut down businesses during a normal flu season, the death rate would be drastically lower than it's been historically.

The fact is that many/most of the steps we've taken as a country have reduced the death rate of a virus which is 9 times as infectious and 6 times more-deadly than the flu.

And if we had covid vaccines like we do for flu the death rate would also be lower.

[Whateverman]

And if we had covid vaccines like we do for flu the death rate would also be lower.

Of course. The same is true if we'd had therapeutics.

[mikewhitney]

You have been deceiving people then. This is nothing like the normal flu or even a bad flu. It's more like the Spanish flu of the early 20th century. or worse. 128,000 dead in 4 months, not 6, with massive efforts to contain it. Efforts that iff applied to a normal flu season would cut its death toll dramatically. Methods that have produced what may well be 5 fold reduction in deaths would not be an unrealistic estimate at this point based on the trajectory at the time they were out in place.

If my numbers have been deceiving people, it is because the California statistics that are deceiving people. It is because the Texas statistics that are deceiving people. I am just reporting what the statistics are. We have more 50-100 million fewer deaths than the Spanish flu (based on the 50-100 million estimated deaths at that time). There would be 230million dead today if were were anywhere near to the Spanish Flu. https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19...e-spanish-flu/

[Cow Poke]

If my numbers have been deceiving people, it is because the California statistics that are deceiving people. It is because the Texas statistics that are deceiving people. I am just reporting what the statistics are. We have more 50-100 million fewer deaths than the Spanish flu (based on the 50-100 million estimated deaths at that time). There would be 230million dead today if were were anywhere near to the Spanish Flu. https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19...e-spanish-flu/

Where are the deaths?

Yes, it's American Spectator, so some of our extremist leftists libs will have a cow, but it's a service I provide --- if we didn't let them blow off steam, their heads would explode (proper attribution to JimL for the Heads Explode reference)

The coronavirus doomsayers could not even wait until the fall for the apocalyptic announcements of the dreaded second wave. Because the red states recklessly loosened their lockdowns, we are now told, the US is seeing a dangerous spike in coronavirus cases. ‘EXPERTS SKETCH GLOOMY PICTURE OF VIRUS SPREAD: FAUCI TELLS OF “DISTURBING” WAVE, WITH A VACCINE MONTHS AWAY,’ read the front-page lead headline in the New York Times on Wednesday. ‘VIRUS SPREAD AKIN TO “FOREST FIRE”’ read another front page headline in the Los Angeles Times on Monday, quoting Michael Osterholm, one of the media’s favorite public health experts. Osterholm had told NBC’s Meet the Press: ‘I’m actually of the mind right now — I think this is more like a forest fire. I don’t think that this is going to slow down.’

The ‘this’ is an uptick in daily new cases from 19,002 on June 9 to 38,386 on June 24. The high to date in new daily cases was on April 24 — 39,072. Since April 24, the daily case count started declining, then began rising again after around June 9. What virtually every fear-mongering story on America’s allegedly precarious situation leaves out, however, is the steadily dropping daily death numbers — from a high of 2,693 on April 21 to 808 on June 24. That April high was driven by New York City and its environs; those New York death numbers have declined, but they have not been replaced by deaths in the rest of the country. This should be good news. Instead, it is no news.



The New York Times put three reporters on a full-page article on Texas, published June 25 under the headline ‘AS NEW CASES SOAR, THE GOVERNOR FACES FALLOUT FROM A RUSH TO REOPEN.’ The story never mentioned coronavirus deaths. Texas’s daily death count has bounced around since early May without a sharp rise — a high of 63 new deaths on May 21, 42 on June 24. Arizona, another state facing media contempt, finally beat its earlier high of 67 deaths on May 8 with 79 deaths on June 24. Between those two dates, however, the curve was steady. The Arizona mortalities are concentrated on Indian reservations and to a lesser extent around the Mexican border.

.......

[shunyadragon]

If my numbers have been deceiving people, it is because the California statistics that are deceiving people. It is because the Texas statistics that are deceiving people. I am just reporting what the statistics are. We have more 50-100 million fewer deaths than the Spanish flu (based on the 50-100 million estimated deaths at that time). There would be 230million dead today if were were anywhere near to the Spanish Flu. https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19...e-spanish-flu/

There is no expectation, I hope, that the current COVID-19 pandemic is equivalent to the 1917-1920 flu pandemic, but the fatality count of this pandemic is higher than the 2009-2010 swine flu pandemic.

I consider a better name for this thread is 'Getting sadistic about the coronavirus death rate.'

[mikewhitney]

There is no expectation, I hope, that the current COVID-19 pandemic is equivalent to the 1917-1920 flu pandemic, but the fatality count of this pandemic is higher than the 2009-2010 swine flu pandemic.

I consider a better name for this thread is 'Getting sadistic about the coronavirus death rate.'

Thanks for some agreement here -- if I perceived it right. Will cherish this moment.

[Starlight]

Deaths lag cases by a few weeks. If, in a few weeks, deaths haven't increased despite cases soaring, there'll be an interesting conversation to be had. Seems a bit weird to count on a miracle in advance though.

[Cow Poke]

Deaths lag cases by a few weeks. If, in a few weeks, deaths haven't increased despite cases soaring, there'll be an interesting conversation to be had. Seems a bit weird to count on a miracle in advance though.

It will be what it will be. Personally, I'm exercising greater caution, and encouraging others within my spheres of influence to do likewise.

I do, however, see conflicting reports of "hospitals being overfilled" and claims that hospitals are pretty much empty.

[Mountain Man]

It will be what it will be. Personally, I'm exercising greater caution, and encouraging others within my spheres of influence to do likewise.

I do, however, see conflicting reports of "hospitals being overfilled" and claims that hospitals are pretty much empty.

Then there are the reports that vaccine development is being hampered because the virus is fading out much more quickly than predicted, giving researchers an insufficient number of subjects for adequate testing. The reports oddly make this sound like a bad thing.

[Cow Poke]

Then there are the reports that vaccine development is being hampered because the virus is fading out much more quickly than predicted, giving researchers an insufficient number of subjects for adequate testing. The reports oddly make this sound like a bad thing.

It's bad for those who weaponize this whole virus situation against Trump, that's for sure.

[Sparko]

I think one reason for the uptick in cases recently is because we have various states that did not have much of an infection earlier, and now are just getting it, and they are causing the case numbers to rise slightly, while the states where it has mostly run it's course are dropping. The US isn't a unified whole population wise and the numbers need to be taken on a state by state basis, as the virus travels in waves across populations.

The opening of businesses also contributes to rises in infections, but the isolation was never meant to STOP the virus, but to flatten the bell curve. At the very beginning Fauci and crew told us that by flattening the curve, we are drawing out the length of time till the virus goes away, but the goal was to keep the curve flatter so that our healthcare systems were not overwhelmed all at once. This seems to be what is happening.

Until we get a vaccine, the virus will continue to spread through the population centers in various states. The masks are not going to stop it. They were never meant to. Neither was social distancing or isolation.

[Cow Poke]

Meanwhile, from CDC....

And they categorize deaths as "pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC)"

Mortality

Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.5% during week 24 to 6.9% during week 25 but remained above baseline. This is the ninth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC, but this may change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.

Hospitalizations

Cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates since March 1, 2020, are updated weekly. The overall cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rate is 98.4 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people aged 65 years and older (297.6 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (148.6 per 100,000).

[oxmixmudd]

Meanwhile, from CDC....

And they categorize deaths as "pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC)"

Mortality

Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.5% during week 24 to 6.9% during week 25 but remained above baseline. This is the ninth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC, but this may change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.

Hospitalizations

Cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates since March 1, 2020, are updated weekly. The overall cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rate is 98.4 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people aged 65 years and older (297.6 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (148.6 per 100,000).

Deaths trail infection rates by 3 to 4 weeks.right now death rates seemed to have stopped dropping, about 3 to 4 weeks after infection rates stopped dropping. But there is also a shift in demographic where in some states those infected are a higher percentage of younger oeople and thus that population will have a lower overall mortality. But a large number of young people spreading the disease with no symptoms or mid symptoms will eventually begin to filter into older populations. This is not rocket science. But it is a new disease. We do not yet have a robust understanding of all its nuances. And we have been putting in place defensive measures. It is not as easy for the virus to get into retirement communities as it was. Strict precautions and testing have been put in place to protect that most vulnerable population.

But infection rates are soaring. And that will very likely, eventually, translate into deaths increasing again. That is what the virus does.

[Mountain Man]

But infection rates are soaring. And that will very likely, eventually, translate into deaths increasing again.

At least that's what you're hoping.

[Cow Poke]

Meanwhile, Biden is stumbling through an answer about COVID being political, without challenging the premise that it is, indeed, political.