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Thread: Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

  1. #21
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    I've told him the same thing. He's one of those that cant comprehend he could be doing it wrong. But it is good for such a person to hear it from multiple sources.
    If you want numbers scarier than other years, you can use these scary numbers. If you want a realistic assessment of what has happened, you do statistics done in the same fashion CDC reports for each year.

    I'm concerned that people are going to ask for protective measures (under government control) to save them from something that is a common death rate. If you are fearful, stay in your house. Lock the doors. Hide under the fort of toilet paper rolls.

  2. #22
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    If you want numbers scarier than other years, you can use these scary numbers. If you want a realistic assessment of what has happened, you do statistics done in the same fashion CDC reports for each year.

    I'm concerned that people are going to ask for protective measures (under government control) to save them from something that is a common death rate. If you are fearful, stay in your house. Lock the doors. Hide under the fort of toilet paper rolls.
    I think that's the thing.....

    This is such a political football, and one side NEEDS to make it as absolutely scary as possible, while another side wants to minimize it beyond the threat it is.
    There is SO MUCH misinformation out there, that it's hard to make an informed decision.

    And when the "high numbers" come from people who tend to have a history of "gloom and doom", you're automatically suspicious, and want to reject them out of hand.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  3. #23
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    I use the nationwide statistics for the flu deaths. I applied this as a comparison to the deaths listed as COVID-19 in Dallas County. I also showed the number of deaths did not vary based on the entrance into quarantine and the exit from it. You have shown a breakdown by age brackets, which generally should be okay to apply to the broad-age calculations I gave.

    If you have eaten well, stay healthy, and get plenty of sun, you are safe of this.

    I used the Dallas numbers because of the scare article Divine0b shared. I checked the California numbers and they were like flu levels. I probably repeat it enough, but if the numbers don't exceed flu rates in the worst of the situation, this is not the scary thing that it is made out to be. If we should wear masks now, we should have worn them last flu season.

    Given one of the Dallas number of deaths as 344
    There were
    34 deaths in ages 55-64
    68 deaths in ages 65-74
    90 deaths in ages 75-84

    Conservative doctors say we have normal levels of deaths. The media says we are all Typhoid Marys. The problem with the media analysis is that we are blocked from visiting the elderly relatives in nursing homes -- which then makes those elderly ones more depressed in life and more susceptible to death.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    If you want numbers scarier than other years, you can use these scary numbers. If you want a realistic assessment of what has happened, you do statistics done in the same fashion CDC reports for each year.

    I'm concerned that people are going to ask for protective measures (under government control) to save them from something that is a common death rate. If you are fearful, stay in your house. Lock the doors. Hide under the fort of toilet paper rolls.
    Whatever you are scared of is irrelavent the numbers are the numbers. I gave you the raw data. The count of known cases and the count of deaths. That is not politics, that is the data. At least 5% of the people diagnosed with covid 19 in this country are dead. That means, if you are diagnosed with covid 19, there is a 1 in 20 chance you will be dead less than 2 months later. Your actual risk varies by age as well, and that has been well stressed. Over 65 and it's worse. Under 30 and it's not anywhere near that bad.

    But mortality is not the only element. If you are hospitalized, there is a fairly high probability you will suffer permanent lung damage, even if you survive. And there are other strange consequences. Indefinate low grade fevers and fatigue in some cases. Strange blood clotting behavior causing strokes or organ damage in younger victims. More is learned every day.

    These are the facts mike. If you are scared by them it is because they are scary facts. Nothing else to blame.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 06-27-2020 at 07:42 PM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    I think that's the thing.....

    This is such a political football, and one side NEEDS to make it as absolutely scary as possible, while another side wants to minimize it beyond the threat it is.
    There is SO MUCH misinformation out there, that it's hard to make an informed decision.

    And when the "high numbers" come from people who tend to have a history of "gloom and doom", you're automatically suspicious, and want to reject them out of hand.
    Its not a political football. It's a medical reality. 2.5 million cases. 125000 deaths. 1 in 20 are dead. That's the story if you are symptomatic enough to be directed to get a test and it comes up positive. The only caveat is that an individual's probability varies with age.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 06-27-2020 at 07:47 PM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    Whatever you are scared of is irrelavent the numbers are the numbers. I gave you the raw data. The count of known cases and the count of deaths. That is not politics, that is the data. At least 5% of the people diagnosed with covid 19 in this country are dead. That means, if you are diagnosed with covid 19, there is a 1 in 20 chance you will be dead less than 2 months later. Your actual risk varies by age as well, and that has been well stressed. Over 65 and it's worse. Under 30 and it's not anywhere near that bad.

    But mortality is not the only element. If you are hospitalized, there is a fairly high probability you will suffer permanent lung damage, even if you survive. And there are other strange consequences. Indefinate low grade fevers and fatigue in some cases. Strange blood clotting behavior causing strokes or organ damage in younger victims. More is learned every day.

    These are the facts mike. If you are scared by them it is because they are scary facts. Nothing else to blame.
    I have been reminding people that the actual numbers of deaths are like a bad flu season. Only the media makes it sound worse (and the governors' mismanagement of everything). The media has severely abused their role in this matter. The covid-19 effects is only scary when you detach it from normal statistics. But we are going around in circles.

  7. #27
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    I have been reminding people that the actual numbers of deaths are like a bad flu season.
    So far more like double of a really bad flu season.

    I'm always still in trouble again

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    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    So far more like double of a really bad flu season.
    And to be fair you didn't shut down like this during a flue season, so it likely would have been a lot worse if it had been business as usual.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    I have been reminding people that the actual numbers of deaths are like a bad flu season. Only the media makes it sound worse (and the governors' mismanagement of everything). The media has severely abused their role in this matter. The covid-19 effects is only scary when you detach it from normal statistics. But we are going around in circles.
    You have been deceiving people then. This is nothing like the normal flu or even a bad flu. It's more like the Spanish flu of the early 20th century. or worse. 128,000 dead in 4 months, not 6, with massive efforts to contain it. Efforts that iff applied to a normal flu season would cut its death toll dramatically. Methods that have produced what may well be 5 fold reduction in deaths would not be an unrealistic estimate at this point based on the trajectory at the time they were out in place.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 06-28-2020 at 06:03 AM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  10. #30
    tWebber Whateverman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    This is nothing like the normal flu or even a bad flu. It's more like the Spanish flu of the early 20th century. or worse. 128,000 dead in 4 months, not 6, with massive efforts to contain it. Efforts that iff applied to a normal flu season would cut its death toll dramatically.
    Color added by me.

    That point always gets lost whenever some pandemic-denier makes a COVID-19 / flu analogy. If we practiced social distancing, and wore masks and shut down businesses during a normal flu season, the death rate would be drastically lower than it's been historically.

    The fact is that many/most of the steps we've taken as a country have reduced the death rate of a virus which is 9 times as infectious and 6 times more-deadly than the flu.

  11. Amen oxmixmudd amen'd this post.

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