Page 5 of 5 FirstFirst ... 345
Results 41 to 49 of 49

Thread: Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

  1. #41
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    54,674
    Amen (Given)
    5603
    Amen (Received)
    23894
    I think one reason for the uptick in cases recently is because we have various states that did not have much of an infection earlier, and now are just getting it, and they are causing the case numbers to rise slightly, while the states where it has mostly run it's course are dropping. The US isn't a unified whole population wise and the numbers need to be taken on a state by state basis, as the virus travels in waves across populations.

    The opening of businesses also contributes to rises in infections, but the isolation was never meant to STOP the virus, but to flatten the bell curve. At the very beginning Fauci and crew told us that by flattening the curve, we are drawing out the length of time till the virus goes away, but the goal was to keep the curve flatter so that our healthcare systems were not overwhelmed all at once. This seems to be what is happening.

    Until we get a vaccine, the virus will continue to spread through the population centers in various states. The masks are not going to stop it. They were never meant to. Neither was social distancing or isolation.

  2. Amen Cow Poke amen'd this post.
  3. #42
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    64,895
    Amen (Given)
    14058
    Amen (Received)
    28921
    Meanwhile, from CDC....

    And they categorize deaths as "pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC)"

    Mortality

    Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.5% during week 24 to 6.9% during week 25 but remained above baseline. This is the ninth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC, but this may change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.


    Hospitalizations

    Cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates since March 1, 2020, are updated weekly. The overall cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rate is 98.4 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people aged 65 years and older (297.6 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (148.6 per 100,000).



    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  4. #43
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Maryland
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    8,876
    Amen (Given)
    772
    Amen (Received)
    2074
    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Meanwhile, from CDC....

    And they categorize deaths as "pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC)"

    Mortality

    Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.5% during week 24 to 6.9% during week 25 but remained above baseline. This is the ninth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC, but this may change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.


    Hospitalizations

    Cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates since March 1, 2020, are updated weekly. The overall cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rate is 98.4 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people aged 65 years and older (297.6 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (148.6 per 100,000).



    Deaths trail infection rates by 3 to 4 weeks.right now death rates seemed to have stopped dropping, about 3 to 4 weeks after infection rates stopped dropping. But there is also a shift in demographic where in some states those infected are a higher percentage of younger oeople and thus that population will have a lower overall mortality. But a large number of young people spreading the disease with no symptoms or mid symptoms will eventually begin to filter into older populations. This is not rocket science. But it is a new disease. We do not yet have a robust understanding of all its nuances. And we have been putting in place defensive measures. It is not as easy for the virus to get into retirement communities as it was. Strict precautions and testing have been put in place to protect that most vulnerable population.

    But infection rates are soaring. And that will very likely, eventually, translate into deaths increasing again. That is what the virus does.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  5. #44
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    United States
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    22,917
    Amen (Given)
    6661
    Amen (Received)
    8252
    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    But infection rates are soaring. And that will very likely, eventually, translate into deaths increasing again.
    At least that's what you're hoping.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  6. #45
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    64,895
    Amen (Given)
    14058
    Amen (Received)
    28921
    Meanwhile, Biden is stumbling through an answer about COVID being political, without challenging the premise that it is, indeed, political.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  7. #46
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    SoCal!!!
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    3,104
    Amen (Given)
    404
    Amen (Received)
    1016
    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    Deaths lag cases by a few weeks. If, in a few weeks, deaths haven't increased despite cases soaring, there'll be an interesting conversation to be had. Seems a bit weird to count on a miracle in advance though.
    i think in this case, the deaths will lag by 40 years or so.

  8. Amen Cow Poke amen'd this post.
  9. #47
    Department Head
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Female
    Posts
    4,503
    Amen (Given)
    21709
    Amen (Received)
    1633
    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Meanwhile, Biden is stumbling through an answer about COVID being political, without challenging the premise that it is, indeed, political.
    and apparently he had a list of those who he could call on for the questions you can bet that only those that would give him soft ball questions were on the list sounds like the Democrats are afraid to let Biden handle tough questions like Trump does? Why would anyone vote for someone who is afraid to or can't play hard ball?

  10. Amen Cow Poke amen'd this post.
  11. #48
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Hillsborough, NC
    Faith
    Agnostic
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    15,783
    Amen (Given)
    1783
    Amen (Received)
    1063
    As far as fatalities world wide it is well documented that the actual fatalities are much greater than the reported numbers. It is documented that in China the actual fatalities are double the reported, for example the number of burial urns ordered are more than two times the reported casualties in Wuhan. Fear of extreme measures by the government has caused many localities to not disclose deaths due to COVID-19. Brazil and Russia greatly under reported the fatalities and downplayed the pandemic for political reasons.Worldwide there are cultural stigmas and fear based denial of COVID-19 The USA has done better; but early in the pandemic the fatality rate was under reported due to the overwhelming casualty rate in the large cities like New York. There were also many cases under not diagnosed, because COVID-19 was not well known, especially the elderly. The USA can probably back track to improve the figures for fatalities, but the under count in other countries will not be corrected by those in power..
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 07-01-2020 at 06:50 AM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  12. #49
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    64,895
    Amen (Given)
    14058
    Amen (Received)
    28921
    Quote Originally Posted by shunyadragon View Post
    As far as fatalities world wide it is well documented that the actual fatalities are much greater than the reported numbers. It is documented that in China the actual fatalities are double the reported, for example the number of burial urns ordered are more than two times the reported casualties in Wuhan. Fear of extreme measures by the government has caused many localities to not disclose deaths due to COVID-19. Brazil and Russia greatly under reported the fatalities and downplayed the pandemic for political reasons.Worldwide there are cultural stigmas and fear based denial of COVID-19 The USA has done better; but early in the pandemic the fatality rate was under reported due to the overwhelming casualty rate in the large cities like New York. There were also many cases under not diagnosed, because COVID-19 was not well known, especially the elderly. The USA can probably back track to improve the figures for fatalities, but the under count in other countries will not be corrected by those in power..
    Shuny, just claiming that something is "well documented" doesn't make it true. As for what comes out of China - I wouldn't believe their reports if they told me rain comes from clouds.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •