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What Quarter Are We In?

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  • What Quarter Are We In?

    If the total coronavirus is a football game, which quarter are we in? I don't have a scientific reason but I think we're approaching half-time.

    For me the end of the game is a vaccine and herd immunity achieved.
    "For I desire mercy, not sacrifice, and acknowledgment of God rather than burnt offerings." Hosea 6:6

    "Theology can be an intellectual entertainment." Metropolitan Anthony Bloom

  • #2
    Originally posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
    If the total coronavirus is a football game, which quarter are we in? I don't have a scientific reason but I think we're approaching half-time.
    Welp, consider that any gains we made with social distancing and the suppression of state economies have mostly been erased. It's true that we've learned how to handle the problem a bit better than when it first started, so we've made some progress; at the very least, if this is the second wave, we should in-theory be in a better position to deal with it.

    I believe the refs have ruled the first quarter a do-over...

    Originally posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
    For me the end of the game is a vaccine and herd immunity achieved.
    That certainly is one way an end-game could look. I tend to believe that we'll never reach herd immunity, and that any vaccine (especially the first few) will only be partially-effective. I think we're in for a few years of (slowly abating) hell.
    Last edited by Whateverman; 06-30-2020, 12:48 PM.

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    • #3
      The game is over but the advocates of coronavirus still are trying to score more points.

      i have shown how Dallas County deaths (using their numbers) showed graphically that the so-called coronavirus deaths were pretty much the same (normally less than 10 per day) and were less than normal flu deaths per day (during flu seasons). The numbers did not change when people had been quarantined nor after they came out of quarantine. Each time i run the numbers, i get the same results. And I heard that CDC has said the death rate is 0.5%.

      We have to have the bystanders run onto the field and celebrate our victory. The pro-coronavirus team did not have enough deaths to win the game.
      Last edited by mikewhitney; 06-30-2020, 01:31 PM.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
        If the total coronavirus is a football game, which quarter are we in? I don't have a scientific reason but I think we're approaching half-time.

        For me the end of the game is a vaccine and herd immunity achieved.
        I will go with the last quarter, but some countries like Brazil and Russia it is the third quarter.
        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

        go with the flow the river knows . . .

        Frank

        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
          Welp, consider that any gains we made with social distancing and the suppression of state economies have mostly been erased.
          They were only meant to flatten the curve.

          It's true that we've learned how to handle the problem a bit better than when it first started, so we've made some progress; at the very least, if this is the second wave, we should in-theory be in a better position to deal with it.

          I believe the refs have ruled the first quarter a do-over...

          That certainly is one way an end-game could look. I tend to believe that we'll never reach herd immunity, and that any vaccine (especially the first few) will only be partially-effective. I think we're in for a few years of (slowly abating) hell.
          I heard that if this virus was man-made (engineered in a lab) then it didn't evolve the way a normal virus would, and will not have much staying power. And a tell-tale sign it was engineered is that it will weaken significantly in the near future - like maybe this Fall.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
            If the total coronavirus is a football game, which quarter are we in? I don't have a scientific reason but I think we're approaching half-time.

            For me the end of the game is a vaccine and herd immunity achieved.
            It depends. If this is a natural virus then we're probably only at halftime. If it was an engineered virus, we're approaching the end two-minute warning.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Ronson View Post
              I heard that if this virus was man-made (engineered in a lab) then it didn't evolve the way a normal virus would, and will not have much staying power.
              If you're saying it wont have much staying power because it was man-made, that doesn't actually make any sense. Anything viral created in a lab would have been created to be both prolific and resistant to environmental pressure.

              Originally posted by Ronson View Post
              And a tell-tale sign it was engineered is that it will weaken significantly in the near future - like maybe this Fall.
              OK. I don't buy this, but I'm not an expert either. Regardless, we definitely will see what happens when the weather turns a bit cooler...

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              • #8
                Covid's probably almost half way through its cycle. For whatever reason, pandemics in history don't seem to last much more than a year. In most countries the number of cases and deaths is now trailing off, but in some large countries (US, Brazil, India etc) the number of cases is still increasing.
                "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
                  If you're saying it wont have much staying power because it was man-made, that doesn't actually make any sense. Anything viral created in a lab would have been created to be both prolific and resistant to environmental pressure.

                  OK. I don't buy this, but I'm not an expert either. Regardless, we definitely will see what happens when the weather turns a bit cooler...
                  I can't remember where I read it now, it has been a few months, but it was a virologist making the suggestion. She said that nature and evolution should create the strongest and most resilient virus because it has resisted and survived every natural effort to kill it.

                  A lab-created virus has not, so that nothing scientists can do in a lab can possibly replicate survival conditions in the real world.

                  That was her reasoning anyway and I found it convincing. Of course she could be wrong, but it made sense to me.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Ronson View Post
                    I can't remember where I read it now, it has been a few months, but it was a virologist making the suggestion. She said that nature and evolution should create the strongest and most resilient virus because it has resisted and survived every natural effort to kill it.

                    A lab-created virus has not, so that nothing scientists can do in a lab can possibly replicate survival conditions in the real world.

                    That was her reasoning anyway and I found it convincing. Of course she could be wrong, but it made sense to me.
                    Natural viruses actually get weaker as they adapt to new hosts. It is to their own survival to not kill their hosts but to spread as much as possible. That is one reason new viruses are so deadly at first but then are not.

                    A man-made virus would be engineered to just kill.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                      Natural viruses actually get weaker as they adapt to new hosts. It is to their own survival to not kill their hosts but to spread as much as possible. That is one reason new viruses are so deadly at first but then are not.

                      A man-made virus would be engineered to just kill.
                      That works too. I am going to look and see if I can find that article because I'm sure there was more to it than I recall.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                        Natural viruses actually get weaker as they adapt to new hosts. It is to their own survival to not kill their hosts but to spread as much as possible. That is one reason new viruses are so deadly at first but then are not.

                        A man-made virus would be engineered to just kill.
                        This is one of the articles I read. It's not the exact one I was thinking of.

                        https://www.livescience.com/coronavi...de-in-lab.html

                        Originally posted by snippet
                        If scientists had deliberately engineered this virus, they wouldn't have chosen mutations that computer models suggest won't work. But it turns out, nature is smarter than scientists, and the novel coronavirus found a way to mutate that was better — and completely different— from anything scientists could have created, the study found...

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                          A man-made virus would be engineered to just kill.
                          Not necessarily. A man-made virus that renders people immune to an existing natural virus would be worth designing. So would one that produces insulin or compensates for cystic fibrosis. If you insist only on malicious motives, a virus that renders people impotent would be more effective in the long-term, because it would be likely to spread further before being noticed.
                          Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                          MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                          MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                          seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Roy View Post
                            Not necessarily. A man-made virus that renders people immune to an existing natural virus would be worth designing. So would one that produces insulin or compensates for cystic fibrosis. If you insist only on malicious motives, a virus that renders people impotent would be more effective in the long-term, because it would be likely to spread further before being noticed.
                            What is called an engineered(?) virus would not necessarily any different from a natural virus. I do not believe that science is presently engineering(?) viruses to the degree some people claim.

                            There is no evidence that the current COVID-19 coronavirus is an engineered virus.
                            Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                            Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                            But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                            go with the flow the river knows . . .

                            Frank

                            I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
                              If the total coronavirus is a football game, which quarter are we in? I don't have a scientific reason but I think we're approaching half-time.

                              For me the end of the game is a vaccine and herd immunity achieved.
                              It's 2nd down and 7, with 7:41 to go in the third quarter. Ball is on the 32 and we brought in fauci to run the ball up the middle until someone knocks him unconscious.

                              Then Trump will air it out and hit Typhoid Mary in the endzone for the winning touchdown. The end.

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