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Thread: What Quarter Are We In?

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    tWebber Thoughtful Monk's Avatar
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    What Quarter Are We In?

    If the total coronavirus is a football game, which quarter are we in? I don't have a scientific reason but I think we're approaching half-time.

    For me the end of the game is a vaccine and herd immunity achieved.
    "For I desire mercy, not sacrifice, and acknowledgment of God rather than burnt offerings." Hosea 6:6

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    tWebber Whateverman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
    If the total coronavirus is a football game, which quarter are we in? I don't have a scientific reason but I think we're approaching half-time.
    Welp, consider that any gains we made with social distancing and the suppression of state economies have mostly been erased. It's true that we've learned how to handle the problem a bit better than when it first started, so we've made some progress; at the very least, if this is the second wave, we should in-theory be in a better position to deal with it.

    I believe the refs have ruled the first quarter a do-over...

    Quote Originally Posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
    For me the end of the game is a vaccine and herd immunity achieved.
    That certainly is one way an end-game could look. I tend to believe that we'll never reach herd immunity, and that any vaccine (especially the first few) will only be partially-effective. I think we're in for a few years of (slowly abating) hell.
    Last edited by Whateverman; 06-30-2020 at 10:48 AM.

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    tWebber
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    The game is over but the advocates of coronavirus still are trying to score more points.

    i have shown how Dallas County deaths (using their numbers) showed graphically that the so-called coronavirus deaths were pretty much the same (normally less than 10 per day) and were less than normal flu deaths per day (during flu seasons). The numbers did not change when people had been quarantined nor after they came out of quarantine. Each time i run the numbers, i get the same results. And I heard that CDC has said the death rate is 0.5%.

    We have to have the bystanders run onto the field and celebrate our victory. The pro-coronavirus team did not have enough deaths to win the game.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 06-30-2020 at 11:31 AM.

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    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
    If the total coronavirus is a football game, which quarter are we in? I don't have a scientific reason but I think we're approaching half-time.

    For me the end of the game is a vaccine and herd immunity achieved.
    I will go with the last quarter, but some countries like Brazil and Russia it is the third quarter.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
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    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

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    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

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    tWebber Ronson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Whateverman View Post
    Welp, consider that any gains we made with social distancing and the suppression of state economies have mostly been erased.
    They were only meant to flatten the curve.

    It's true that we've learned how to handle the problem a bit better than when it first started, so we've made some progress; at the very least, if this is the second wave, we should in-theory be in a better position to deal with it.

    I believe the refs have ruled the first quarter a do-over...

    That certainly is one way an end-game could look. I tend to believe that we'll never reach herd immunity, and that any vaccine (especially the first few) will only be partially-effective. I think we're in for a few years of (slowly abating) hell.
    I heard that if this virus was man-made (engineered in a lab) then it didn't evolve the way a normal virus would, and will not have much staying power. And a tell-tale sign it was engineered is that it will weaken significantly in the near future - like maybe this Fall.

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    tWebber Ronson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
    If the total coronavirus is a football game, which quarter are we in? I don't have a scientific reason but I think we're approaching half-time.

    For me the end of the game is a vaccine and herd immunity achieved.
    It depends. If this is a natural virus then we're probably only at halftime. If it was an engineered virus, we're approaching the end two-minute warning.

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    tWebber Whateverman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronson View Post
    I heard that if this virus was man-made (engineered in a lab) then it didn't evolve the way a normal virus would, and will not have much staying power.
    If you're saying it wont have much staying power because it was man-made, that doesn't actually make any sense. Anything viral created in a lab would have been created to be both prolific and resistant to environmental pressure.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ronson View Post
    And a tell-tale sign it was engineered is that it will weaken significantly in the near future - like maybe this Fall.
    OK. I don't buy this, but I'm not an expert either. Regardless, we definitely will see what happens when the weather turns a bit cooler...

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    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Covid's probably almost half way through its cycle. For whatever reason, pandemics in history don't seem to last much more than a year. In most countries the number of cases and deaths is now trailing off, but in some large countries (US, Brazil, India etc) the number of cases is still increasing.

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    tWebber Ronson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Whateverman View Post
    If you're saying it wont have much staying power because it was man-made, that doesn't actually make any sense. Anything viral created in a lab would have been created to be both prolific and resistant to environmental pressure.

    OK. I don't buy this, but I'm not an expert either. Regardless, we definitely will see what happens when the weather turns a bit cooler...
    I can't remember where I read it now, it has been a few months, but it was a virologist making the suggestion. She said that nature and evolution should create the strongest and most resilient virus because it has resisted and survived every natural effort to kill it.

    A lab-created virus has not, so that nothing scientists can do in a lab can possibly replicate survival conditions in the real world.

    That was her reasoning anyway and I found it convincing. Of course she could be wrong, but it made sense to me.

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    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronson View Post
    I can't remember where I read it now, it has been a few months, but it was a virologist making the suggestion. She said that nature and evolution should create the strongest and most resilient virus because it has resisted and survived every natural effort to kill it.

    A lab-created virus has not, so that nothing scientists can do in a lab can possibly replicate survival conditions in the real world.

    That was her reasoning anyway and I found it convincing. Of course she could be wrong, but it made sense to me.
    Natural viruses actually get weaker as they adapt to new hosts. It is to their own survival to not kill their hosts but to spread as much as possible. That is one reason new viruses are so deadly at first but then are not.

    A man-made virus would be engineered to just kill.

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