Announcement

Collapse

Civics 101 Guidelines

Want to argue about politics? Healthcare reform? Taxes? Governments? You've come to the right place!

Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
See more
See less

COVID deaths still declining

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    The who thing was walked back immediately. It was a mistake in communication.

    And no - these sources do not conflate them, nor are they ignorant of the difference. You just don't read very well.
    They actually do, in fact, explicitly differentiate between them depending on the paper you are reading.

    Consider:

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...84118220300402


    Source: above

    Previous reports revealed that there are asymptomatic patients infected with SARS-CoV-2.7,8,22 These patients can spread the virus and may represent a population that can be easily neglected in epidemic prevention. Therefore, it is important to identify asymptomatic patients with COVID-19. Since these patients are asymptomatic, careful monitoring of the natural course of the disease and contact history may only identify them. Based on the current data, we do not know whether these patients are only asymptomatic initially after contracting the disease or if they are asymptomatic throughout the course of the disease.

    © Copyright Original Source




    or


    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7271011/


    Source: above

    Asymptomatic people with SARS-CoV-2 infection are of great concern as they undermine control interventions that rely on identifying symptomatic cases. However, current reports of asymptomatic infections were mostly cross-sectional case reports [[1], [2], [3], [4], [5]]. Do they develop symptoms later? Is an asymptomatic period a part of the natural course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), or a chronic condition? Is the asymptomatic patient in an incubation period or a subclinical infection, or are they a chronic asymptomatic carrier of SARS-CoV-2 like Typhoid Mary? These questions are of great significance for understanding the spectrum, natural history and epidemiology of COVID-19. Therefore, we followed up virologically confirmed COVID-19 patients in Shanghai Public Health Centre who had no subjective symptoms on admission.

    © Copyright Original Source



    The points made here are A) they do in fact differentiate them B) it doesn't matter in terms of UNKNOWING transmission of the disease which case is being represented in the data. C) regardless of which kind or asymptomatic transmission it is, the effect of masks on hindering it is the same.

    Oh - there is one more point we can make. This distinction you are hammering on in terms of how the word 'asymptomatic' is used isn't something that is consistently part of the scientific literature, it's a diversion of your own manufacture used to play semantic games arguing on this site.
    Yeah, like I said, they conflate "asymptomatic" with "pre-symptomatic". Case in point: the one paragraph refers to "asymptomatic infections" and then pulls an about face and asks, "Do they develop symptoms later?" meaning they're not actually asymptomatic but pre-symptomatic!
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
      Yeah, like I said, they conflate "asymptomatic" with "pre-symptomatic". Case in point: the one paragraph refers to "asymptomatic infections" and then pulls an about face and asks, "Do they develop symptoms later?" meaning they're not actually asymptomatic but pre-symptomatic!
      Clearly there is nothing that can heal your (clearly willful) ignorance. "asymptomatic" as used in the paper clearly refers to state at a certain point in time and is not used to necessarily define the entire course of the disease in an individual. Given they are Ph.D's and you have shown yourself clueless over and over again in these threads wrt the scientific disiplines, arguing the point further would be a complete waste of time.
      Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-15-2020, 05:25 PM.
      My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

      If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

      This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
        And other "some" are those of us who have recovered from it and are more than likely no longer carriers.

        So, because "some" are, then ALL must act like they are.
        No, because "some" are, they must act as if "some" are they don't know which ones.
        Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

        MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
        MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

        seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
          It's "conspiracy nuttery" when a news station finfs copious evidence that positive China flu cases throughout Florida were being vastly over-reported?
          It's not just "conspiracy nuttery" but blatant lying or blithering idiocy when the news station actually found that negative cases were being under-reported:

          "Specifically, they said that some smaller, private labs were not reporting negative test result data to the state."

          And death rates are going up, and have been for a week. That's another blatant lie or blithering idiocy.

          So is this:
          Tell me another one, like how asymptomatic (as opposed to pre-symptomatic) people can spread the Wuhan virus when we know this is, in fact, a rare occurrence.
          Pre-symptomatic people are asymptomatic.
          Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

          MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
          MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

          seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Roy View Post
            It's not just "conspiracy nuttery" but blatant lying or blithering idiocy when the news station actually found that negative cases were being under-reported:

            "Specifically, they said that some smaller, private labs were not reporting negative test result data to the state."

            And death rates are going up, and have been for a week. That's another blatant lie or blithering idiocy.

            So is this:
            Pre-symptomatic people are asymptomatic.
            Robert Guaderrama, the reporter who broke the case noted that some labs have not reported any negative Chicom coronavirus results and only reported the positive results. I think that counts as "negative cases were being under-reported." As he later stated during an interview with Laura Ingraham:

            looking into the breakdown of test labs, I quickly noticed astronomical positivity rates. Now, mind you, Florida's COVID-19 rate is just under 11%. But dozens of labs report as having 100% positivity. Some only reported positive cases. The negative column, completely blank. So I asked myself, how can 100% of people testing at both sites test positive?

            I reached out to several major hospitals in our area, Orlando Health and the Orlando VA, confirming errors in their numbers on the report. So after several requests for comment, today the Florida Department of Health released the statement reading in part:

            "In recent days, the department noticed that some smaller, private labs weren't reporting negative test result data. The department immediately began working with those labs to ensure that all resorts to results were being reported in order to provide comprehensive and transparent data." These labs are required by the state to report all test results.


            The pertinent parts are bolded.

            I'm always still in trouble again

            "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
            "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
            "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

            Comment


            • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
              Robert Guaderrama, the reporter who broke the case noted that some labs have not reported any negative Chicom coronavirus results and only reported the positive results. I think that counts as "negative cases were being under-reported." As he later stated during an interview with Laura Ingraham:

              looking into the breakdown of test labs, I quickly noticed astronomical positivity rates. Now, mind you, Florida's COVID-19 rate is just under 11%. But dozens of labs report as having 100% positivity. Some only reported positive cases. The negative column, completely blank. So I asked myself, how can 100% of people testing at both sites test positive?

              I reached out to several major hospitals in our area, Orlando Health and the Orlando VA, confirming errors in their numbers on the report. So after several requests for comment, today the Florida Department of Health released the statement reading in part:

              "In recent days, the department noticed that some smaller, private labs weren't reporting negative test result data. The department immediately began working with those labs to ensure that all resorts to results were being reported in order to provide comprehensive and transparent data." These labs are required by the state to report all test results.


              The pertinent parts are bolded.
              Thanks for that rogue. It confirms that the number of positive cases reported is likely to be accurate, but the ratio of positive-to-negative is useless.
              Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

              MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
              MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

              seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Roy View Post
                Thanks for that rogue. It confirms that the number of positive cases reported is likely to be accurate, but the ratio of positive-to-negative is useless.
                It does serve to demonstrate that, as you said there was

                blatant lying or blithering idiocy when the news station actually found that negative cases were being under-reported


                is not accurate in the least.

                I'm always still in trouble again

                "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                Comment


                • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                  It does serve to demonstrate that, as you said there was

                  blatant lying or blithering idiocy when the news station actually found that negative cases were being under-reported


                  is not accurate in the least.
                  That's a completely accurate description of MM's comment, which you omitted.
                  Last edited by Roy; 07-16-2020, 07:39 AM.
                  Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                  MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                  MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                  seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

                  Comment


                  • Just today's graph on U.S. cases. Source: Worldometer

                    Closed cases in the graph

                    graph.jpg

                    Green are total cases. Orange are deaths.
                    Last edited by Ronson; 07-16-2020, 08:15 AM.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                      It does serve to demonstrate that, as you said there was

                      blatant lying or blithering idiocy when the news station actually found that negative cases were being under-reported


                      is not accurate in the least.
                      Just the usual histrionics from Ignorant Roy.
                      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                      Than a fool in the eyes of God


                      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Ronson View Post
                        Just today's graph on U.S. cases. Source: Worldometer

                        Closed cases in the graph

                        [ATTACH=CONFIG]46710[/ATTACH]

                        Green are total cases. Orange are deaths.
                        That graph doesn't tell the story. In fact, it is not what you say it is. It is the recovery RATE and the death RATE (currently 7.85%*), not the raw count, or even the daily count, nor does it show the daily trend.

                        This one, however, does: (same source - worldometers)

                        Daily Deaths US 07162020.jpg

                        There does seem to have been a hiccup from the boneheaded switch in reporting destinations, in that the peak has typically been Tuesday for a given week, but this week Wednesday was higher than Tuesday. But BOTH where higher than the week previous, which was higher than the week previous to that.

                        The highest (1001) number of deaths since June 9 in fact.

                        The bottom line is that deaths are rising, just delayed relative to the rise in cases, as expected.

                        I am concerned about the shift to a non-public database for housing the data. The administration is not above massaging the data for their own purposes. They should have left the system alone and let the CDC continue to be the primary reporting destination where doctors and scientists make the data public for other researchers and are not subject to the political goals of the current administration.


                        *The rate in Ronson's graph is deaths/recovered+deaths which is worst case given changes in testing rate and known undiagnosed mild or asymptomatic cases.
                        Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-16-2020, 09:05 AM.
                        My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                        If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                        This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                          That graph doesn't tell the story. In fact, it is not what you say it is. It is the recovery RATE and the death RATE (currently 7.85%*), not the raw count, or even the daily count, nor does it show the daily trend.

                          This one, however, does: (same source - worldometers)

                          [ATTACH=CONFIG]46712[/ATTACH]

                          There does seem to have been a hiccup from the boneheaded switch in reporting destinations, in that the peak has typically been Tuesday for a given week, but this week Wednesday was higher than Tuesday. But BOTH where higher than the week previous, which was higher than the week previous to that.

                          The highest (1001) number of deaths since June 9 in fact.

                          The bottom line is that deaths are rising, just delayed relative to the rise in cases, as expected.

                          I am concerned about the shift to a non-public database for housing the data. The administration is not above massaging the data for their own purposes. They should have left the system alone and let the CDC continue to be the primary reporting destination where doctors and scientists make the data public for other researchers and are not subject to the political goals of the current administration.


                          *The rate in Ronson's graph is deaths/recovered+deaths which is worst case given changes in testing rate and known undiagnosed mild or asymptomatic cases.
                          The news has become so convoluted and untrustworthy concerning this Novel Cuomovirus. We see this with the Texas "news" story about morgue trucks being dispatched to some counties in Texas. And anything that is marked as a Cuomovirus death then gets extra money to the hospital. So there is financial incentive to improperly code these hospitalizations and deaths. Many people should recognize the problems of making financial incentives like this.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                            The news has become so convoluted and untrustworthy concerning this Novel Cuomovirus. We see this with the Texas "news" story about morgue trucks being dispatched to some counties in Texas. And anything that is marked as a Cuomovirus death then gets extra money to the hospital. So there is financial incentive to improperly code these hospitalizations and deaths. Many people should recognize the problems of making financial incentives like this.
                            Completely irrelevant to my post, which was to point out that the chart Ronson posted was mislabeled, and as mislabeled - misleading (I'm assuming it was a mistake). If one doesn't understand that the orange trace is mortality RATE, then it looks like deaths from covid are still decreasing. But that is not the case. That specific chart might rise again due to the sharp rise in new cases, but it can't be used as a proxy for the daily death count in the US.
                            My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                            If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                            This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                              Completely irrelevant to my post, which was to point out that the chart Ronson posted was mislabeled, and as mislabeled - misleading (I'm assuming it was a mistake). If one doesn't understand that the orange trace is mortality RATE, then it looks like deaths from covid are still decreasing. But that is not the case. That specific chart might rise again due to the sharp rise in new cases, but it can't be used as a proxy for the daily death count in the US.
                              Eeyore just never could be happy. Maybe you can find something else to make you happy when the coronaphobia season is over.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                                Eeyore just never could be happy. Maybe you can find something else to make you happy when the coronaphobia season is over.
                                They have the next flu season to look forward to.
                                Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                                But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                                Than a fool in the eyes of God


                                From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                                Comment

                                Related Threads

                                Collapse

                                Topics Statistics Last Post
                                Started by little_monkey, Yesterday, 04:19 PM
                                6 responses
                                47 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post whag
                                by whag
                                 
                                Started by whag, 03-26-2024, 04:38 PM
                                42 responses
                                231 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post whag
                                by whag
                                 
                                Started by rogue06, 03-26-2024, 11:45 AM
                                24 responses
                                104 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Ronson
                                by Ronson
                                 
                                Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 09:21 AM
                                32 responses
                                176 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Hypatia_Alexandria  
                                Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 08:34 AM
                                73 responses
                                309 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Hypatia_Alexandria  
                                Working...
                                X