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Thread: COVID deaths still declining

  1. #291
    tWebber Roy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    Robert Guaderrama, the reporter who broke the case noted that some labs have not reported any negative Chicom coronavirus results and only reported the positive results. I think that counts as "negative cases were being under-reported." As he later stated during an interview with Laura Ingraham:

    looking into the breakdown of test labs, I quickly noticed astronomical positivity rates. Now, mind you, Florida's COVID-19 rate is just under 11%. But dozens of labs report as having 100% positivity. Some only reported positive cases. The negative column, completely blank. So I asked myself, how can 100% of people testing at both sites test positive?

    I reached out to several major hospitals in our area, Orlando Health and the Orlando VA, confirming errors in their numbers on the report. So after several requests for comment, today the Florida Department of Health released the statement reading in part:

    "In recent days, the department noticed that some smaller, private labs weren't reporting negative test result data. The department immediately began working with those labs to ensure that all resorts to results were being reported in order to provide comprehensive and transparent data." These labs are required by the state to report all test results.


    The pertinent parts are bolded.
    Thanks for that rogue. It confirms that the number of positive cases reported is likely to be accurate, but the ratio of positive-to-negative is useless.
    Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

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  2. #292
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roy View Post
    Thanks for that rogue. It confirms that the number of positive cases reported is likely to be accurate, but the ratio of positive-to-negative is useless.
    It does serve to demonstrate that, as you said there was

    blatant lying or blithering idiocy when the news station actually found that negative cases were being under-reported


    is not accurate in the least.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
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  3. #293
    tWebber Roy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    It does serve to demonstrate that, as you said there was

    blatant lying or blithering idiocy when the news station actually found that negative cases were being under-reported


    is not accurate in the least.
    That's a completely accurate description of MM's comment, which you omitted.
    Last edited by Roy; 07-16-2020 at 05:39 AM.
    Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

    mikewhitney: What if the speed of light changed when light is passing through water? ... I have 3 semesters of college Physics.

    Mountain Man: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
    Mountain Man: … this is how liberals argue these days, with labels instead of ideas.

  4. #294
    tWebber Ronson's Avatar
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    Just today's graph on U.S. cases. Source: Worldometer

    Closed cases in the graph

    graph.jpg

    Green are total cases. Orange are deaths.
    Last edited by Ronson; 07-16-2020 at 06:15 AM.

  5. #295
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    It does serve to demonstrate that, as you said there was

    blatant lying or blithering idiocy when the news station actually found that negative cases were being under-reported


    is not accurate in the least.
    Just the usual histrionics from Ignorant Roy.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  6. #296
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronson View Post
    Just today's graph on U.S. cases. Source: Worldometer

    Closed cases in the graph

    graph.jpg

    Green are total cases. Orange are deaths.
    That graph doesn't tell the story. In fact, it is not what you say it is. It is the recovery RATE and the death RATE (currently 7.85%*), not the raw count, or even the daily count, nor does it show the daily trend.

    This one, however, does: (same source - worldometers)

    Daily Deaths US 07162020.jpg

    There does seem to have been a hiccup from the boneheaded switch in reporting destinations, in that the peak has typically been Tuesday for a given week, but this week Wednesday was higher than Tuesday. But BOTH where higher than the week previous, which was higher than the week previous to that.

    The highest (1001) number of deaths since June 9 in fact.

    The bottom line is that deaths are rising, just delayed relative to the rise in cases, as expected.

    I am concerned about the shift to a non-public database for housing the data. The administration is not above massaging the data for their own purposes. They should have left the system alone and let the CDC continue to be the primary reporting destination where doctors and scientists make the data public for other researchers and are not subject to the political goals of the current administration.


    *The rate in Ronson's graph is deaths/recovered+deaths which is worst case given changes in testing rate and known undiagnosed mild or asymptomatic cases.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-16-2020 at 07:05 AM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  7. #297
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    That graph doesn't tell the story. In fact, it is not what you say it is. It is the recovery RATE and the death RATE (currently 7.85%*), not the raw count, or even the daily count, nor does it show the daily trend.

    This one, however, does: (same source - worldometers)

    Daily Deaths US 07162020.jpg

    There does seem to have been a hiccup from the boneheaded switch in reporting destinations, in that the peak has typically been Tuesday for a given week, but this week Wednesday was higher than Tuesday. But BOTH where higher than the week previous, which was higher than the week previous to that.

    The highest (1001) number of deaths since June 9 in fact.

    The bottom line is that deaths are rising, just delayed relative to the rise in cases, as expected.

    I am concerned about the shift to a non-public database for housing the data. The administration is not above massaging the data for their own purposes. They should have left the system alone and let the CDC continue to be the primary reporting destination where doctors and scientists make the data public for other researchers and are not subject to the political goals of the current administration.


    *The rate in Ronson's graph is deaths/recovered+deaths which is worst case given changes in testing rate and known undiagnosed mild or asymptomatic cases.
    The news has become so convoluted and untrustworthy concerning this Novel Cuomovirus. We see this with the Texas "news" story about morgue trucks being dispatched to some counties in Texas. And anything that is marked as a Cuomovirus death then gets extra money to the hospital. So there is financial incentive to improperly code these hospitalizations and deaths. Many people should recognize the problems of making financial incentives like this.

  8. #298
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    The news has become so convoluted and untrustworthy concerning this Novel Cuomovirus. We see this with the Texas "news" story about morgue trucks being dispatched to some counties in Texas. And anything that is marked as a Cuomovirus death then gets extra money to the hospital. So there is financial incentive to improperly code these hospitalizations and deaths. Many people should recognize the problems of making financial incentives like this.
    Completely irrelevant to my post, which was to point out that the chart Ronson posted was mislabeled, and as mislabeled - misleading (I'm assuming it was a mistake). If one doesn't understand that the orange trace is mortality RATE, then it looks like deaths from covid are still decreasing. But that is not the case. That specific chart might rise again due to the sharp rise in new cases, but it can't be used as a proxy for the daily death count in the US.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  9. #299
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    Completely irrelevant to my post, which was to point out that the chart Ronson posted was mislabeled, and as mislabeled - misleading (I'm assuming it was a mistake). If one doesn't understand that the orange trace is mortality RATE, then it looks like deaths from covid are still decreasing. But that is not the case. That specific chart might rise again due to the sharp rise in new cases, but it can't be used as a proxy for the daily death count in the US.
    Eeyore just never could be happy. Maybe you can find something else to make you happy when the coronaphobia season is over.

  10. #300
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    Eeyore just never could be happy. Maybe you can find something else to make you happy when the coronaphobia season is over.
    They have the next flu season to look forward to.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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