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  • #76
    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
    No hindsight involved. The COVID-19 pandemic is a pandemic and not over yet.
    Covid19 deaths have started the expected rise. About a week later than I expected, and I would explain it by the shifting demographic towards younger victims of the disease. In general, there is a broad distribution of time to death, so whatever peak exists in daily infections is somewhat distributed across a wider area in the daily deaths curve.

    But a constant rise in infections will result in a rise in daily deaths even with the shift in demographic. But with the shifting demographic and the broader distribution of deaths, the result is an apparent drop in deaths relative to the steady state daily infection rate that preceded the current uptick.

    This isn't magic, its science. The virus is a pathogen that only changes its character through mutation. We can affect its infection rate and consequences only by careful study of and application of those remediations shown to work. Those who ignore that simple reality with suffer the consequences. There are no do-overs.

    Daily Deaths US 07092020.jpg

    Daily Cases US 07092020.jpg
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-09-2020, 05:59 PM.
    My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

    If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

    This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

    Comment


    • #77
      Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
      No hindsight involved. The COVID-19 pandemic is a pandemic and not over yet.
      Thank you, Captain Gloom.
      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
        If you get vaccinated, then why do you care if others do not? I'm not anti-vax but this argument really makes no sense to me.
        because the virus itself can only be controlled or eliminated if a sufficient percentage of the population is immune. Vaccines are not 100% effective. Some people are allergic, some people have underlying conditions that make it so that can't be vaccinated.

        This goes to the issue of concern for the public welfare, of our responsibility to the welfare of those who live in and around us, of the fact we live as a community and we must behave in ways that benefit not just ourselves but others as well. In this case, it is our moral responsibility to be vaccinated if we can, because that protects everyone, including those not capable of being vaccinated, or whose immune system doesn't respond to the vaccine. It's not just about you, or me. It's about everyone.
        My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

        If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

        This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

        Comment


        • #79
          Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
          Covid19 deaths have started the expected rise. About a week later than I expected, and I would explain it by the shifting demographic towards younger victims of the disease. In general, there is a broad distribution of time to death, so whatever peak exists in daily infections is somewhat distributed across a wider area in the daily deaths curve.

          But a constant rise in infections will result in a rise in daily deaths even with the shift in demographic. But with the shifting demographic and the broader distribution of deaths, the result is an apparent drop in deaths relative to the steady state daily infection rate that preceded the current uptick.

          This isn't magic, its science. The virus is a pathogen that only changes its character through mutation. We can affect its infection rate and consequences only by careful study of and application of those remediations shown to work. Those who ignore that simple reality with suffer the consequences. There are no do-overs.
          Ah. But is must be magic. After 4 months of not exceeding flu/influenza levels of deaths in most states, it somehow magically will start to cause problems. But, just in case people get sick, find a doctor who will prescribe stuff like pulmicort or the Chloroquine/Zinc and antibiotic. If people are still dying, they are not getting the treatment they need or it is not being treated quickly enough. Fear not. God is our Lord.

          Also, people must quickly get out of New York City.

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
            Ah. But is must be magic. After 4 months of not exceeding flu/influenza levels of deaths in most states, it somehow magically will start to cause problems. But, just in case people get sick, find a doctor who will prescribe stuff like pulmicort or the Chloroquine/Zinc and antibiotic. If people are still dying, they are not getting the treatment they need or it is not being treated quickly enough. Fear not. God is our Lord.

            Also, people must quickly get out of New York City.

            When the 1917-1920 pandemic happened it followed a similar pattern as this pandemic when some areas were considerably less effective than others, and some did not reach even epidemic levels, but nonetheless the world experienced the greatest pandemic in modern history.
            Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
            Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
            But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

            go with the flow the river knows . . .

            Frank

            I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

            Comment


            • #81
              Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
              When the 1917-1920 pandemic happened it followed a similar pattern as this pandemic when some areas were considerably less effective than others, and some did not reach even epidemic levels, but nonetheless the world experienced the greatest pandemic in modern history.
              thanks for the history. California is done with the sub-pandemic

              Comment


              • #82
                Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                thanks for the history. California is done with the sub-pandemic
                incoherent, needs explanation.
                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                Frank

                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                  thanks for the history. California is done with the sub-pandemic
                  California has record number of deaths:

                  Source: https://deadline.com/2020/07/california-coronavirus-update-governor-gavin-newsom-reports-record-number-of-covid-related-deaths-in-state-1202981847/



                  California Coronavirus Update: Governor Gavin Newsom Reports Record Number Of COVID-Related Deaths In State
                  By Tom Tapp

                  Tom Tapp
                  Deputy Managing Editor

                  California Governor Gavin Newsom began his Thursday news conference speaking about the state’s efforts to mitigate wildfires, announcing the addition of 12 Blackhawk helicopters to the state’s fleet as wildfire season begins to peak. He then transitioned to addressing a more immediate conflagration.

                  Newsom announced a record number of daily deaths in the state from COVID-19, with 149 lives lost over the past 24 hours. That’s up about 23 percent from the previous high of 115 deaths. That grim mark was reported on April 22, during the previous peak of the virus in California. The total number of lives lost in the state due to coronavirus is now 6,711.

                  © Copyright Original Source

                  Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                  Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                  But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                  go with the flow the river knows . . .

                  Frank

                  I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    "Newsom announced a record number of daily deaths in the state from COVID-19..."

                    "From" or "with"?
                    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                    Than a fool in the eyes of God


                    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                      Ah. But is must be magic. After 4 months of not exceeding flu/influenza levels of deaths in most states, it somehow magically will start to cause problems. But, just in case people get sick, find a doctor who will prescribe stuff like pulmicort or the Chloroquine/Zinc and antibiotic. If people are still dying, they are not getting the treatment they need or it is not being treated quickly enough. Fear not. God is our Lord.

                      Also, people must quickly get out of New York City.
                      'in most states'. That statement alone to anyone interested in truth and reality says a lot. This is a new virus. It's effect determined by where it is, not where it has not been yet. As can be seen in California, Texas, and Arizona, Mexico, Sweden - all places you and others have flaunted as examples of how something 'doesn't add up', once the virus gets a foot in the door, it does what it does - which is kill between 1 and 3 % of those infected, create lifelong complications for twice that, and spread like wildfire.

                      The trend in deaths is now up, and based on the skyrocketing case counts, that is not likely to change anytime soon. This is a pathogen, a virus. It behaves according to physical law, not wishful thinking or conspiratorial paranoia.
                      My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                      If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                      This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                        California has record number of deaths:

                        Source: https://deadline.com/2020/07/california-coronavirus-update-governor-gavin-newsom-reports-record-number-of-covid-related-deaths-in-state-1202981847/



                        California Coronavirus Update: Governor Gavin Newsom Reports Record Number Of COVID-Related Deaths In State
                        By Tom Tapp

                        Tom Tapp
                        Deputy Managing Editor

                        California Governor Gavin Newsom began his Thursday news conference speaking about the state’s efforts to mitigate wildfires, announcing the addition of 12 Blackhawk helicopters to the state’s fleet as wildfire season begins to peak. He then transitioned to addressing a more immediate conflagration.

                        Newsom announced a record number of daily deaths in the state from COVID-19, with 149 lives lost over the past 24 hours. That’s up about 23 percent from the previous high of 115 deaths. That grim mark was reported on April 22, during the previous peak of the virus in California. The total number of lives lost in the state due to coronavirus is now 6,711.

                        © Copyright Original Source

                        It is easy to have higher "covid" deaths when the numbers have been so low and the standards of declaring a death as covid-related are so low (and flexible). Also, if Newsom said this, then it is reasonably assumed to be a lie.

                        Don't just give numbers that the media reports. These are meaningless when lacking comparison to death rates in other years. To make this meaningful, compare the number of deaths to something like the 2018-19 flu/influenza death rate.
                        Last edited by mikewhitney; 07-10-2020, 11:07 AM.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                          'in most states'. That statement alone to anyone interested in truth and reality says a lot. This is a new virus. It's effect determined by where it is, not where it has not been yet. As can be seen in California, Texas, and Arizona, Mexico, Sweden - all places you and others have flaunted as examples of how something 'doesn't add up', once the virus gets a foot in the door, it does what it does - which is kill between 1 and 3 % of those infected, create lifelong complications for twice that, and spread like wildfire.

                          The trend in deaths is now up, and based on the skyrocketing case counts, that is not likely to change anytime soon. This is a pathogen, a virus. It behaves according to physical law, not wishful thinking or conspiratorial paranoia.
                          Then you stop your death wish for the world. Use real numbers, not models. What can we do when there are so many people who just wish that the deaths will be in the millions?

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                            'in most states'. That statement alone to anyone interested in truth and reality says a lot. This is a new virus. It's effect determined by where it is, not where it has not been yet. As can be seen in California, Texas, and Arizona, Mexico, Sweden - all places you and others have flaunted as examples of how something 'doesn't add up', once the virus gets a foot in the door, it does what it does - which is kill between 1 and 3 % of those infected, create lifelong complications for twice that, and spread like wildfire.

                            The trend in deaths is now up, and based on the skyrocketing case counts, that is not likely to change anytime soon. This is a pathogen, a virus. It behaves according to physical law, not wishful thinking or conspiratorial paranoia.
                            There was an article on yahoo about the supposed punctuated equilibrium of the virus. It was a typhoid Mary type of theory. I think the idea was that most people don't pass on the virus but some people do. So you can try to use that theory to justify your position. Other than that, your proposal sounds like a magical event that defies scientific study and background. But you can keep fearing the virus if you want.

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                              Then you stop your death wish for the world. Use real numbers, not models. What can we do when there are so many people who just wish that the deaths will be in the millions?
                              I am using real numbers. The people 'wishing' for the deaths to be in the millions are those refusing to wear masks and those attending gatherings of people with no regard for the science of how the disease spreads and what environments are conducive to spread. The reason I focus on these numbers and trends is that so many on this site continue to try to push misinformation and conspiracy based paranoia about the assessments of legitimate scientists and doctors. I analyze the data and I tell you guys what is happening and make conservative predictions about what is likely to happen next base solely on that data and a basic knowledge of how the virus spreads. And then when what I have predicted happens, I come back around to remind you that the science and the numbers don't lie. It is a tedious but necessary task when attempting to combat mass delusion and ignorance.
                              Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-10-2020, 01:40 PM.
                              My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                              If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                              This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                                There was an article on yahoo about the supposed punctuated equilibrium of the virus. It was a typhoid Mary type of theory. I think the idea was that most people don't pass on the virus but some people do. So you can try to use that theory to justify your position. Other than that, your proposal sounds like a magical event that defies scientific study and background. But you can keep fearing the virus if you want.
                                If you look through this thread, you'll find my tracking of and predictions about the progression of this virus are spot on. The fact you keep trying to focus on ancillary topics and new paranoid theories doen't change that fact.
                                My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                                If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                                This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                                Comment

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