COVID deaths still declining

[oxmixmudd]

I trust in the Lord.



SO very true!



Absolutely false.



Absolutely false.



Absolutely true.



Yup, you need help.

What you doing here is called gaslighting. But I forgive you. And it doesnt matter anyway. I have the objective science before me. And I've been right about every element so far wrt the pandemic, it's progression and it's effects.

[shunyadragon]

You are wrong on so many point. I don't have the info at my fingertips. But it was several years ago that WHO removed the number of deaths from the requirements for declaring pandemics.

Is there actual daily data available for Houston? Have you calculated this data against normal flu/influenza season?

I cite current references and you have nothing to cite. which is the usual case.

When we do the calculations we find...

There's a population of 4,092,459 in Harris County (co.harris.tx.us) and we apply a .025% death rate for flu in a year) which gives 1023 expected deaths. This would be 6 per day during a six month flu season. The numbers reported are 603 deaths per the article (or 455 per the websiste https://harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com...5efcb7c07c6914 ). Currently 420-550 deaths could occur without reaching beyond the normal flu season level.

Please report back in panic when the number of deaths exceed 2000 in a season.

As to hospital loading, the typical situation for hospitals is to have most ICU beds occupied. One question is whether they are able to use chloroquine/zinc/azithromicin or Pulmicort for early treatment of the COVID patients. Also, we have not been provided the percent of ICU beds being used for COVID patients. So the numbers just promote panic without facts or details.

absolutely meaningless selective citation to justify your agenda. 1023 expected (?) deaths has nothing to do with the factors that determine whether the COVID-19 pandemic is a pandemic or not.

[oxmixmudd]

I trust in the Lord

This deserves a follow up. This phrase has little meaning if it is coupled with foolishness and a complete disregard for wisdom. David trusted in God, but he also was very skilled with his sling. Pentecostal snake handlers base their foolish testing of God on a misapplication of that same phrase. When Satan tempted Christ one of his replies was thou shalt not tempt the Lord your God.

Trusting in God is not marching in foolish disregard for what is known. And it is not prideful disregard for the truth either.

Think about that.

[mikewhitney]

Why would less deaths than normal be considered a pandemic?

I'm asking people to use a little common sense here. But sometimes that is too much to ask. so people live in fear of goblins

If you want a place to go for common sense, it is right here with this post.

They may call it a pandemic for some sort of logistical purposes but for our level of concern it is a mostly a flu season. We already know the virus' behavior. We already know the early treatments to keep it from going bad. It was okay to be nervous about it for a month, but now we are in good shape. The only goofy thing is that we are counting "cases" like there is no tomorrow. We never do this for flu virus -- but we would either have the same results for testing millions of people for flu virus or we find that this coronavirus is primarily a nothing burger.

By the "1023 expected deaths" I mean that a normal flu season could have 1023 deaths but coronavirus only has had 455 or 603 deaths in Harris County. (So we have a long way to go to reach any scary level of deaths for coronavirus. And we can avoid these deaths with proper treatment.) I'm sorry that the numbers can be confusing to those who don't work out the details.

[DivineOb]

It's probably already been pointed out but this thread is now obsolete. https://www.google.com/search?client...rus+deaths+usa

Going to get real ugly real quick.

[mikewhitney]

It's probably already been pointed out but this thread is now obsolete. https://www.google.com/search?client...rus+deaths+usa

Going to get real ugly real quick.

we can only hope so. feed the virus. feed the fear. hide under the covers.

but seriously. If we see the death rates go greatly above the flu/influenza death rates of previous flu seasons for states beyond New York, then we may have to take things more seriously. The problem is that every time I check a panic headline, the numbers don't work out to epidemic levels.

Oops. I just checked this website: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
They show 0.06% death rate in the 2018-19 flu season. California is at 7800/26Million (0.03%). So there is a lot of catch up to do to make this as bad as last year flu season.

Please do the calculations instead of just reading the headlines. Life will be much prettier.

[mikewhitney]

I cite current references and you have nothing to cite. which is the usual case.



absolutely meaningless selective citation to justify your agenda. 1023 expected (?) deaths has nothing to do with the factors that determine whether the COVID-19 pandemic is a pandemic or not.

I posted my main reply between your last post and this post. But your idea about data being meaningless does not make sense. Since when are actual data not relevant in measuring how bad a virus is? Is not the idea of a pandemic supposed to mean that we have scary numbers of death beyond normal levels? If you want to call normal death rates as epidemics, you can. But don't expect everyone to wear a mask because you call it a pandemic. Nor is there legal basis to have people wear masks because people are dying at normal death rates.

[Cow Poke]

I trust in the Lord.

This deserves a follow up.

Cool....

I will trust in the Lord and not some gloom and doomer on the internet.

[Cow Poke]

What you doing here is called gaslighting.

No, actually, it's not. Gaslighting is where you take a normal person and try to convince them they're crazy.
I'm trying to help a crazy person realize they need help.

One minute you're kissing my butt, then you're stabbing me in the back.
One minute you're calling yourself my "True Friend", then you're crying and begging me "please, if you have any decency in you at all, leave me alone".
One minute you're agreeing we need to avoid one another, then you're responding to my posts that have nothing to do with you, as if we're best friends.
One minute you're talking like a kind loving Sunday School teacher, then you're fountain of judgment and condemnation and bitterness.
When I asked you very politely to leave a thread, and you fired back with some goofy "badge of courage" condemnation or whatever to be kicked out of my thread.

You're an emotional basket case. Incredibly unstable. If I were to guess, I'd say you were bipolar.

You are consumed with misery and hate and gloom and doom - with ZERO evidence of the Fruit of the Spirit.
You can "sound Christian" at times, but if you were ever to share a Christian testimony with your current cohort of hell-bound buddies, they'd laugh and mock you like they do the Christians on this board.

When I say "you need help", it's because I sincerely believe you need help.

You act very much like my daughter before the Lord GLORIOUSLY healed her of her bipolar disorder.
I spent YEARS praying that she would "come to herself" like the prodigal son, who "came to himself" when he was slopping hogs far from home.

She acted SO MUCH like you, one minute crying that she had no friends, and the whole world was against her --- like you have done.
She was filled with darkness and misery and hung with enemies of the Cross, just like you do.
She dealt with depression, and mood swings and severe unhappiness, surrounding herself with miserable people. Just like you do.
She was at war with Christians, just like you are.

When God healed her, it was like "the light came on". Joy filled her heart.
The change in her was downright miraculous.
For TWO YEARS now, she has been an incredibly happy person, full of the Spirit, and love and laughter.
She had lost "the Joy of her Salvation", but it all came flooding back, making her a delight to be around.

God can do that for you, too.

But you need to get help.

[Mountain Man]

And then we have stories like this:

During the peak of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic in April and May, Orange County, California health care officials reported inaccurate numbers. For more than five weeks, the county incorrectly included 30,000 serology tests – used to detect whether or not a person has antibodies for the virus, suggesting they previously had an infection – into their "cumulative tests to date" figures, the Los Angeles Times reported. The mistake inflated both the county's testing numbers and the number of positive Wuhan coronavirus cases.

Serology tests give health care providers an idea of how prevalent the virus is in their area but they aren't reliable, especially when determining whether or not a person actively has the infection.

According to the Orange County Register, the mistake inflated the county's coronavirus numbers by 13 percent.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethba...mbers-n2572312

Makes you wonder how many other "mistakes" across the country are inflating the case/death counts.

[little_monkey]

When confirmed cases went up people blamed increased testing and complained that the flat hospitalization rate was not being reported. When hospitalizations began to increase again they complained that flat death rate was not being reported. Well guess what, the death rate is now going up. What excuse or deflection will they run to now?

[Mountain Man]

We already know the official guidelines for reporting "confirmed" cases is flexible to the point of being worthless. The CDC doesn't require a positive test. A doctor merely needs to suspect that someone has the China flu, or that they were in contact with someone who had it even if the person in question isn't sick for it to count as a "probable case" and added to the total. Death totals are just as bad with no requirement that cause of death actually be directly attributable to the Wuhan virus, or that the deceased even had it.

Which leave us asking if the increasing numbers are because the virus is spreading and killing anew, or is it because of the loose standards used to report China flu cases?

[DivineOb]

We already know the official guidelines for reporting "confirmed" cases is flexible to the point of being worthless. The CDC doesn't require a positive test. A doctor merely needs to suspect that someone has the China flu, or that they were in contact with someone who had it even if the person in question isn't sick for it to count as a "probable case" and added to the total. Death totals are just as bad with no requirement that cause of death actually be directly attributable to the Wuhan virus, or that the deceased even had it.

Which leave us asking if the increasing numbers are because the virus is spreading and killing anew, or is it because of the loose standards used to report China flu cases?

Then focus on the most unambiguous datapoint -- hospital ICU capacity. Why are they filling up if the situation isn't worsening?

ETA: Not to mention that up to this point deaths have been *declining*. So the standard of attribution, flawed as it might be, was showing your preferred result up until recently (i.e. 4-6 weeks after reopening). Why might that be?

[Cow Poke]

And then we have stories like this:

During the peak of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic in April and May, Orange County, California health care officials reported inaccurate numbers. For more than five weeks, the county incorrectly included 30,000 serology tests – used to detect whether or not a person has antibodies for the virus, suggesting they previously had an infection – into their "cumulative tests to date" figures, the Los Angeles Times reported. The mistake inflated both the county's testing numbers and the number of positive Wuhan coronavirus cases.

Serology tests give health care providers an idea of how prevalent the virus is in their area but they aren't reliable, especially when determining whether or not a person actively has the infection.

According to the Orange County Register, the mistake inflated the county's coronavirus numbers by 13 percent.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethba...mbers-n2572312

Makes you wonder how many other "mistakes" across the country are inflating the case/death counts.

It's looking worse and worse for how badly China screwed this up, tried to cover it up, and WHO was complicit.

[Mountain Man]

Then focus on the most unambiguous datapoint -- hospital ICU capacity. Why are they filling up if the situation isn't worsening?

Are ICU's "filling up"? I'm still hearing lots of reports of empty hospitals and out-of-work nurses because there aren't enough patients to keep them employed.