COVID deaths still declining

[Sparko]

Okay then. Give the statistics. Let us see what the level was two weeks ago and what it is now.

Where have the greatest increases happened?

Even if I were a nut, you should be able to do this much investigation and proving of your concepts.

Still not seeing a rise in deaths even though the daily cases has been rising for over a month now.

cases v deaths.jpg

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d....&country=~USA

[Mountain Man]

BOTH can save lives...

Depends on the type of mask and if it is properly used. The overwhelming majority of masks in use in the public are the wrong type and won't do a thing to protect you or anybody else from the China flu, and the overwhelming majority of people who wear a mask do so in such a way that it confers zero benefits to the wearer anyway (leaving one's nose uncovered, touching the mask, removing the mask to talk on the phone, reusing the same mask throughout the day or over multiple days, etc.).

So, no, wearing a mask is in no way analogous to wearing a seat belt which is effectively foolproof to use and has been proven through decades of rigorous repeated testing.

[rogue06]

Depends on the type of mask and if it is properly used. The overwhelming majority of masks in use in the public are the wrong type and won't do a thing to protect you or anybody else from the China flu, and the overwhelming majority of people who wear a mask do so in such a way that it confers zero benefits to the wearer anyway (leaving one's nose uncovered, touching the mask, removing the mask to talk on the phone, reusing the same mask throughout the day or over multiple days, etc.).

Many of the masks are about as effective as covering your face with a pair of fishnet stockings.

There are actually masks being sold with a small hole in front of the mouth so that the wearer can stick a straw through it to drink or smoke a cigarette without having to remove their masks.

So, no, wearing a mask is in no way analogous to wearing a seat belt which is effectively foolproof to use and has been proven through decades of rigorous repeated testing.

I know a few people who arrange their seat belt so that the shoulder strap passes behind them rather than in front like it is supposed to.

[Mountain Man]

Both are trivially easy to put on and take off, and both provide a massive improvement in safety at the cost of only the most modest of inconvenience.

It's the "easy to put on and take off" part that is getting people into trouble. I've made it a hobby of mine when I'm out and about to see how many people do things that basically render their masks useless (assuming it's even the the correct type of mask), and it's pretty much 100%.

Even more absurdly, the governor of my state recently instituted a mask requirement for certain counties but only for people over the age of 12, so now you see masked adults being accompanied by unmasked children.

[oxmixmudd]

Still not seeing a rise in deaths even though the daily cases has been rising for over a month now.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]46623[/ATTACH]

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d....&country=~USA

Check again (and use a better scale), they've been rising for a week now:

Daily Deaths US 07142020.jpg

[oxmixmudd]

Depends on the type of mask and if it is properly used. The overwhelming majority of masks in use in the public are the wrong type and won't do a thing to protect you or anybody else from <<bigotry>>, and the overwhelming majority of people who wear a mask do so in such a way that it confers zero benefits to the wearer anyway (leaving one's nose uncovered, touching the mask, removing the mask to talk on the phone, reusing the same mask throughout the day or over multiple days, etc.).

So, no, wearing a mask is in no way analogous to wearing a seat belt which is effectively foolproof to use and has been proven through decades of rigorous repeated testing.

What you have posted is misinformation/anti-mask propaganda. The simple facts are:

(1) To wear a mask properly is a matter of education a 1st grader can understand. Most people in the State I live in wear them correctly, though there are holdouts.

(2) cloth masks, especially multilayer, significantly reduce the quantity of expelled droplets that get into the air. And they do indeed help to curb the spread of corona-virus - significantly. They help keep a person that does not know they are contagious from spreading the disease to others. As I've said many times, we wear masks not to prevent the virus from getting to us, but to keep us from giving the virus away.

[oxmixmudd]

It's the "easy to put on and take off" part that is getting people into trouble. I've made it a hobby of mine when I'm out and about to see how many people do things that basically render their masks useless (assuming it's even the the correct type of mask), and it's pretty much 100%.

Even more absurdly, the governor of my state recently instituted a mask requirement for certain counties but only for people over the age of 12, so now you see masked adults being accompanied by unmasked children.

Your bias is blinding you to reality MM. Masks are worn to capture droplets from the wearers mouth - keeping most of them from getting into the air. And your worries about touching the mask etc are irrelevant wrt the actual purpose in wearing the mask.

The simple SCIENCE is that despite all your objections, when masks are used, spread is reduced.


https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/41...-masks-prevent

[Mountain Man]

What you have posted is misinformation/anti-mask propaganda. The simple facts are:

(1) To wear a mask properly is a matter of education a 1st grader can understand. Most people in the State I live in wear them correctly, though there are holdouts.

(2) cloth masks, especially multilayer, significantly reduce the quantity of expelled droplets that get into the air. And they do indeed help to curb the spread of corona-virus - significantly. The help keep a person that does not know they are contagious from spreading the disease to others. As I've said many times, we wear masks not to prevent the virus from getting to us, but to keep us from giving the virus away.

Ordinary cloth masks are worthless for keeping viruses at bay. Hold an ordinary piece of cloth over your mouth and exhale. You feel that warm, moist air? You feel the air escaping around the sides and fogging up your glasses?

Yeah...

[Mountain Man]

Your bias is blinding you to reality MM. Masks are worn to capture droplets from the wearers mouth - keeping most of them from getting into the air. And your worries about touching the mask etc are irrelevant wrt the actual purpose in wearing the mask.

The simple SCIENCE is that despite all your objections, when masks are used, spread is reduced.


https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/41...-masks-prevent

Even the CDC hedges their bets on this one:

"A cloth face covering may not protect the wearer, but it may keep the wearer from spreading the virus to others."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...coverings.html

Remember that "may" and "may not" are interchangable, so what the CDC is really saying is, "We don't know."

In short, masks are not like a seat belt for your face that has been rigorously tested and proven to be highly effective at preventing serious injury and death.

So why the mask hysteria? It's government logic in action:

We just do something to stop the China flu.
Wearing masks is something.
Therefore, we must wear masks.

[Whateverman]

Ordinary cloth masks are worthless for keeping viruses at bay. Hold an ordinary piece of cloth over your mouth and exhale. You feel that warm, moist air? You feel the air escaping around the sides and fogging up your glasses?

Yeah...

Yeah, it doesn't travel as far, so it's effective.

Keep up the propaganda, komrade!

ps. put a gas mask over your head, put your hand up to the filter, and breathe. You feel that warm, moist air?

Yeah...

[oxmixmudd]

Even the CDC hedges their bets on this one:

"A cloth face covering may not protect the wearer, but it may keep the wearer from spreading the virus to others."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...coverings.html

Remember that "may" and "may not" are interchangable, so what the CDC is really saying is, "We don't know."

No, it means that the chances of spreading it are reduced -significantly. They are simply saying what I said, its about keeping a sick person from putting virus out into the environment for someone else to catch. And it's not a guarantee, but it helps a lot. This is not all or nothing. To stop the virus, we have to get the rate of spread below 1. That doesn't require perfection, it just requires 'enough'.

In short, masks are not like a seat belt for your face that has been rigorously tested and proven to be highly effective at preventing serious injury and death.

So why the mask hysteria? It's government logic in action:

We just do something to stop the <<bigot>>.
Wearing masks is something.
Therefore, we must wear masks.

You need to read closer MM. Again, it is all about not spreading it if you have it and don't know it. That is why the guidance changed MM. We discovered people can be contageous without any symptoms. And even though a mask doesn't really prevent an airborne virus from getting in your mouth and lungs, it does a good job of reducing the amount of virus YOU can put into the air.

You keep thinking the mask us supposed to keep the virus from getting to you. That is not the point. You need an n95 for that.

The point it to keep the wearer from putting the virus into the air in small droplets that get exhaled. If the virus doesn't get into the air, then people have a much smaller chance of getting it. It doesn't settle on surfaces, it doesn't get inhaled by someone else. So all those people wearing masks that you are mocking, they are helping to keep YOU from getting sick. You should do the polite thing and return the favor.

[Sparko]

Check again (and use a better scale), they've been rising for a week now:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]46625[/ATTACH]

coviddeaths.jpg

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

It's been over a month since the cases have sharply rose (see first graph I posted) and yet there is a nearly imperceptible teeny rise in the death rate? Since the death rate lags the cases by two weeks (your words in a previous post) we should have started seeing a sharp rise in deaths two weeks ago to match. We haven't.

[oxmixmudd]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]46626[/ATTACH]

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

It's been over a month since the cases have sharply rose (see first graph I posted) and yet there is a nearly imperceptible teeny rise in the death rate? Since the death rate lags the cases by two weeks (your words in a previous post) we should have started seeing a sharp rise in deaths two weeks ago to match. We haven't.

You have to use the 7 day average to see the trend.

Again I refer you to the same data in a more intelligible presentation:

Daily Deaths US 07142020.jpg


There is a 7 day reporting cycle which moves up and down. If you look at the graph I gave you, shown again above, it has both the daily data, which goes up and down, and the 7 day average, which effectively removes the weekly changes and gives the trend. The trend is up - 3 weeks after the massive increase began - which is in line with expectations. The delay is typically two weeks, but there where 3 factors involved

1) the increase in infections
2) the change in demographic towards younger victims with a lower mortality
3) the increases in number of tests - capturing more mild to moderate cases.

2 and 3 helped maintain the lowered trend a bit longer than if all things were equal to the first spike in march/april.

And this weeks change in death rate is not imperceptable, it's significant, @ 50%, from an average of 517 deaths/day to 753 deaths/day. Given the three weeks prior were averages from 758 to 628 to 517 that is 3 weeks of slow decline erased in 1 week.

[Sparko]

You have to use the 7 day average to see the trend.

Again I refer you to the same data in a more intelligible presentation:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]46636[/ATTACH]


There is a 7 day reporting cycle which moves up and down. If you look at the graph I gave you, shown again above, it has both the daily data, which goes up and down, and the 7 day average, which effectively removes the weekly changes and gives the trend. The trend is up - 3 weeks after the massive increase began - which is in line with expectations. The delay is typically two weeks, but there where 3 factors involved

1) the increase in infections
2) the change in demographic towards younger victims with a lower mortality
3) the increases in number of tests - capturing more mild to moderate cases.

2 and 3 helped maintain the lowered trend a bit longer than if all things were equal to the first spike in march/april.

And this weeks change in death rate is not imperceptable, it's significant, @ 50%, from an average of 517 deaths/day to 753 deaths/day. Given the three weeks prior were averages from 758 to 628 to 517 that is 3 weeks of slow decline erased in 1 week.

OK I will check back next week.

[oxmixmudd]

OK I will check back next week.

For the past two months at least, the high number for deaths during the week has been on Tuesday, so I'll check back in later this week with the total for today and tomorrow which tend to define the trend for the week.