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  • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    And the gaslighting continues.
    You obviously don't understand the term. Or, you're being purposefully dishonest.

    I tell you what,
    I can hardly wait.

    I'll continue to present science and facts,
    With the "science and facts" being selected as to present the scariest scenario possible.

    and you just go on and continue trying to find ways to disparage who I am.
    You do that YOURSELF. You don't need any help.

    I'm comfortable being the one putting out science and facts.
    Selective science and facts.

    And I'm pretty sure I can at this point just chuckle a bit at your vain attempts to distract from the science and the facts through various forms of ad hom.

    Wouldn't surprise me. That's what crazy folk do. Besides your dishonest allegation that I'm tring to "distract from the science and facts", of course.
    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
      mike,

      you haven't provided what you think you have. You've mostly just provided misinformation, misconceptions, and misunderstandings. You don't even - still - understand what disease mortality is after having it explained to you multiple times by multiple posters.
      The deaths in places are not trending with the mortality rates that you are talking about. We have already had people here who predicted the death rate increasing in June due to the increased cases, but the deaths had not increased as predicted. So how do your failed numbers help us understand coronavirus?

      If you have statistics for cities or counties that show the actual increase of covid-caused hospitalizations and deaths, please share them. Make sure that these statistics differentiate between covid-related hospitalizations and those hospital beds for other medical conditions.
      Last edited by mikewhitney; 07-13-2020, 02:19 PM.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
        You obviously don't understand the term. Or, you're being purposefully dishonest.



        I can hardly wait.



        With the "science and facts" being selected as to present the scariest scenario possible.



        You do that YOURSELF. You don't need any help.



        Selective science and facts.



        Wouldn't surprise me. That's what crazy folk do. Besides your dishonest allegation that I'm tring to "distract from the science and facts", of course.
        Let's see an example of where you believe I was 'selective' in my presentation of the data. There isn't one, but I'm curious

        A) if you can back up the claim.
        B) if you understand the concept.
        My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

        If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

        This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

        Comment



        • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
          Let's see an example of where you believe I was 'selective' in my presentation of the data. There isn't one, but I'm curious


          That's a riot.

          A) if you can back up the claim.
          B) if you understand the concept.
          Jim, you "select" the articles and data you wish to use to back up your narrative.
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
            The deaths in places are not trending with the mortality rates that you are talking about. We have already had people here who predicted the death rate increasing in June due to the increased cases, but the deaths had not increased as predicted. So how do your failed numbers help us understand coronavirus?
            First - you have never been able to demonstrate you even understand how to calculate disease mortality for a given area. To date, you have tried to use the total population of an area, not number of cases in that area, as your denominator. Absolute foolishness.

            Second - I've never been talking about small local areas Mike. Only someone that doesn't understand statistics or the way disease spreads would be cherry picking small local areas to make some point - with the possible exception of something like the diamond princess or disease encroachment into a nursing home. But regardless, I've been talking about the nation as a whole, or the trend in highly populated regions or states. As for predicting the relationship between changes in the number of daily cases and changes in the number of daily deaths

            1) The best estimate for the real average mortality is between 1 and 2%
            2) We know that more extensive testing will push the measured mortality closer to that real value
            3) We know that the mortality of the disease changes with age
            4) We know that deaths are spread out relative to infection. So it takes at least 4 weeks at a steady state daily case rate to get to the effective daily death rate for that daily case rate. This is called 'reaching equilibrium'.

            the consequences of the above are:

            1) we should never see #dead/(#recovered+#dead) < .01 for an even distribution of cases by age demographic
            2) More extensive testing will lower the measured mortality asymptotically towards that 1% value. (current measured mortality for the US are between 4% using all known cases and 8% using cases with an outcome)
            3) will shift mortality depending on the age distribution of the infected population. older = greater mortality - up to 14% or so, younger = lower mortailty, down to .2% or so.
            4) changes in demographic can prolong or shorten a trend wrt daily deaths relative to changes in the number of daily new cases.

            So, understanding the above, the mortality most certainly has tracked what was expected with 1 exception - the shift in demographic from older to younger from memorial day to july 4 was not predicted or factored into earlier projections.

            The impact of that shift in demographic was to delay by a week or so in the upward impact of the current surge because we were still seeing deaths from the first peak where the demographic had more elderly victims of the disease.


            So - we are four weeks after the most recent rise in cases, and the death rate has now been climbing for about a week, on the national level, as expected when the shift in demographic is taken into account. Without that shift we could have expected to see a rise about a week earlier. Nothing is behaving outside what was to be expected or in a way that indicates our basic understanding of the disease is flawed.
            Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-13-2020, 02:52 PM.
            My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

            If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

            This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post




              That's a riot.



              Jim, you "select" the articles and data you wish to use to back up your narrative.
              Do you enjoy being an idiot? That sounds like something an 8 year old might come up with, not someone that actually has some knowledge of science. Clearly you are just trolling, I know you are not THAT stupid.
              My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

              If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

              This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

              Comment


              • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                Do you enjoy being an idiot? That sounds like something an 8 year old might come up with, not someone that actually has some knowledge of science. Clearly you are just trolling, I know you are not THAT stupid.
                Jim, you are rather infamous for finding gloom and doom and coming up with 'support' for it. It's what you do.
                The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                Comment


                • Bad news. Latest studies (in the UK and Spain) show that those who contracted the disease lose their anti-bodies after 3 months - meaning you can catch it again and again like the common cold. Also, the theory that a population will become immune to the virus if at least 60% of people catch it has gone out through the window. It also means that a vaccine is unlikely to be very effective or long lasting. Also other studies are showing that after surviving the disease there are long lasting health conditions even for those who suffered a mild case. Welcome to the new world. I predict that the wearing of a face mask, like seat belts, will become mandatory for the rest of our lives...

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                    Jim, you are rather infamous for finding gloom and doom and coming up with 'support' for it. It's what you do.
                    Sorry CP. That is just you not wanting to admit you've been wrong all along about this virus and the way it has been handled by our leaders. The data speaks for itself CP. This is a deadly disease, it has killed a lot of people, it was poorly handled and so hundreds of thousands of people have died that did not need to. We reopened too early, and so now people are being infected at roughly 2x the rate they were being infected before the shutdown. That means many more 10's of thousands will die that did not need to, possibly even hundreds of thousands. And on top of that, the disease continues to reveal even more of its dark side as per the post above my Little-Monkey, and our current leaders continue to ignore the consequences of that.

                    This is a dark and sobering reality CP, not 'gloom and doom'. The reason in making the point - especially on this website - is so many ignorant people are trying to pretend that reality doesn't exist, and thus are putting themselves and the rest of us in greater danger. 100,000 people are dead now that did not need to die specifically because of the misinformation you have embraced, the scoffing you have echoed.

                    You calling that 'gloom and doom' is nothing more than you being unable to face reality for what it is.
                    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-13-2020, 03:13 PM.
                    My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                    If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                    This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by little_monkey View Post
                      Bad news. Latest studies (in the UK and Spain) show that those who contracted the disease lose their anti-bodies after 3 months - meaning you can catch it again and again like the common cold. Also, the theory that a population will become immune to the virus if at least 60% of people catch it has gone out through the window. It also means that a vaccine is unlikely to be very effective or long lasting. Also other studies are showing that after surviving the disease there are long lasting health conditions even for those who suffered a mild case. Welcome to the new world. I predict that the wearing of a face mask, like seat belts, will become mandatory for the rest of our lives...
                      Got any links?

                      And there is no way that wearing masks will become mandatory forever. People won't do it. And it can cause health problems of it's own.

                      I guess we could all start wearing Burkas.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                        Sorry CP. That is just you not wanting to admit you've been wrong all along about this virus and the way it has been handled by our leaders.
                        No, Jim, this is just you being wrong ASSUMING my position because I don't absolutely freak out about it, and because I'm looking at ALL the information available.

                        Oh, and I 'amen' and get along with your enemies.
                        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                          You calling that 'gloom and doom' is nothing more than you being unable to face reality for what it is.
                          No, I keep calling it "Gloom and Doom" because that's all you ever post.
                          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                            No, Jim, this is just you being wrong ASSUMING my position because I don't absolutely freak out about it, and because I'm looking at ALL the information available.

                            Oh, and I 'amen' and get along with your enemies.
                            No CP. This is just me reacting to the ideas you support, the ideas you challenge, the data you ignore, the misinformation you perpetrate.
                            My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                            If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                            This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by little_monkey View Post
                              I predict that the wearing of a face mask, like seat belts, will become mandatory for the rest of our lives...
                              That's how paranoid people have become. However, there is no meaningful parallel between wearing a mask and wearing a seat belt.
                              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                              Than a fool in the eyes of God


                              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                                No CP.
                                Yes, Jim.
                                The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                                Comment

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