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  • #91
    Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    I am using real numbers. The people 'wishing' for the deaths to be in the millions are those refusing to wear masks and those attending gatherings of people with no regard for the science of how the disease spreads and what environments are conducive to spread. The reason I focus on these numbers and trends is that so many on this site continue to try to push misinformation and conspiracy based paranoia about the assessments of legitimate scientists and doctors. I analyze the data and I tell you guys what is happening and make conservative predictions about what is likely to happen next base solely on that data and a basic knowledge of how the virus spreads. And then when what I have predicted happens, I come back around to remind you that the science and the numbers don't lie. It is a tedious but necessary task when attempting to combat mass delusion and ignorance.
    I know the feeling of posting calculations and scientific links while not getting responses on those. Then the topic comes up again and I don't have the links handy enough to just copy and paste here. But whenever I have done the calculations, the panic news never pans out to real deaths. If you can repost the data for places like California or Texas which shows the covid deaths to the previous year flu/influenza deaths, we can look at that. Remember that context is key here. Remember also that the number of deaths due to the "solution" to coronavirus also has to be examined so that we see if the solution is better than having an open society.

    Comment


    • #92
      Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
      If you look through this thread, you'll find my tracking of and predictions about the progression of this virus are spot on. The fact you keep trying to focus on ancillary topics and new paranoid theories doen't change that fact.
      It will be interesting to hear what these ancillary topics and paranoid theories are.

      Comment


      • #93
        Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
        I know the feeling of posting calculations and scientific links while not getting responses on those. Then the topic comes up again and I don't have the links handy enough to just copy and paste here. But whenever I have done the calculations, the panic news never pans out to real deaths. If you can repost the data for places like California or Texas which shows the covid deaths to the previous year flu/influenza deaths, we can look at that. Remember that context is key here. Remember also that the number of deaths due to the "solution" to coronavirus also has to be examined so that we see if the solution is better than having an open society.
        I've tried to point out what you are doing wrong in terms of your 'calculations', but you are not listening. If you are actually understanding what the statistics mean and how they are calculated, you will see that we have had over 130,000 covid 19 deaths in just a few months as compared to under 60,000 for the entire flu season. You would also understand that the mitigation's that are in place if they were in place for the flu would have cut flu deaths significantly. IOW, without those mitigations, COVID-19 deaths would have been much, much higher than that 130,000 - and indeed they WILL be much higher than that 130,000 before we have been 1 year in its presence. Indeed, we are looking at over 200,000 deaths by November - assuming we quiet the current surge -, and that not even 9 months from when it entered a community transmission stage. Finally, you would also understand that this is a novel virus, not a ubiquitous one like the flu. Which means it has not yet reached every corner of the nation as the flu does on any given flu season.

        In comparison with the flu: it is more infectious (R0 is higher), it is more deadly (at least 7 to 10x that of the flu), its consequences to patients that recover are worse and more varied (blood clotting malfunctions, brain damage, lung damage, other major organ damage to name a few), we don't have a vaccine, we don't have good therapeutics, and it is a danger year round.
        My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

        If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

        This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

        Comment


        • #94
          Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
          I've tried to point out what you are doing wrong in terms of your 'calculations', but you are not listening. If you are actually understanding what the statistics mean and how they are calculated, you will see that we have had over 130,000 covid 19 deaths in just a few months as compared to under 60,000 for the entire flu season. You would also understand that the mitigation's that are in place if they were in place for the flu would have cut flu deaths significantly. IOW, without those mitigations, COVID-19 deaths would have been much, much higher than that 130,000 - and indeed they WILL be much higher than that 130,000 before we have been 1 year in its presence. Indeed, we are looking at over 200,000 deaths by November - assuming we quiet the current surge -, and that not even 9 months from when it entered a community transmission stage. Finally, you would also understand that this is a novel virus, not a ubiquitous one like the flu. Which means it has not yet reached every corner of the nation as the flu does on any given flu season.

          In comparison with the flu: it is more infectious (R0 is higher), it is more deadly (at least 7 to 10x that of the flu), its consequences to patients that recover are worse and more varied (blood clotting malfunctions, brain damage, lung damage, other major organ damage to name a few), we don't have a vaccine, we don't have good therapeutics, and it is a danger year round.
          Even 130,000 covid-suspected, covid-related, and covid-faked deaths is not a pandemic level, even if the death counts were really covid-19. If you count the deaths across multiple flu seasons, then you deviate from the normal statistics and then have to recalculate flu/influenza statistics to match the covid-19 off-centered "season."

          It is only a theory that mitigation changed anything. There are only a few places where the virus was especially viral -- NYC, NJ and DC, I think. I have shown how there were no changes over time in Dallas County. There are nations that did not lockdown. Taiwan had only 7 deaths but they are super dense living situations.

          The treatments for coronavirus (best applied earlier) have been proven successful. So I'm not sure how you maintain your unjustified fears.

          There is no reason to think that a vaccine is needed or that one is possible. There is no reason to think that one made in haste will be safe. Worse yet, one company is proposing an RNA-altering vaccine -- which definitely needs about a 100 years of testing before we can think it to be safe.

          In comparison with the flu: it is more infectious (R0 is higher), it is more deadly (at least 7 to 10x that of the flu), its consequences to patients that recover are worse and more varied (blood clotting malfunctions, brain damage, lung damage, other major organ damage to name a few), we don't have a vaccine, we don't have good therapeutics, and it is a danger year round.
          you just gave numbers showing that it was twice as deadly as regular flu season and now you say it is 10 times more deadly. And again, the solution to avoid brain and lung damage is to get treatment quickly if you have signs of flu happening. The doctor should be able to prescribe Pulmicort or the Hydocholoroquine/Zinc/Azithromycin treatment. So, fear not anymore. I'm not sure why you are still so scared. God and science have come to help us out of this so-called pandemic.
          Last edited by mikewhitney; 07-10-2020, 03:40 PM.

          Comment


          • #95
            Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
            Even 130,000 covid-suspected, covid-related, and covid-faked deaths is not a pandemic level, even if the death counts were really covid-19. If you count the deaths across multiple flu seasons, then you deviate from the normal statistics and then have to recalculate flu/influenza statistics to match the covid-19 off-centered "season."

            It is only a theory that mitigation changed anything. There are only a few places where the virus was especially viral -- NYC, NJ and DC, I think. I have shown how there were no changes over time in Dallas County. There are nations that did not lockdown. Taiwan had only 7 deaths but they are super dense living situations.

            The treatments for coronavirus (best applied earlier) have been proven successful. So I'm not sure how you maintain your unjustified fears.

            There is no reason to think that a vaccine is needed or that one is possible. There is no reason to think that one made in haste will be safe. Worse yet, one company is proposing an RNA-altering vaccine -- which definitely needs about a 100 years of testing before we can think it to be safe.



            you just gave numbers showing that it was twice as deadly as regular flu season and now you say it is 10 times more deadly. And again, the solution to avoid brain and lung damage is to get treatment quickly if you have signs of flu happening. The doctor should be able to prescribe Pulmicort or the Hydocholoroquine/Zinc/Azithromycin treatment. So, fear not anymore. I'm not sure why you are still so scared. God and science have come to help us out of this so-called pandemic.
            Consider your interpretation of my point in the previous post in last statement in bold/italic above.

            When and if you can understand how completely confused that statement shows you to be, there is no point in further discussion.

            But I will help you out a bit.

            1) A bad flu season is 60,000 plus. I compared covid to the worst of flu seasons.
            2) The flu infects in a given season around 26,000,000 people. Note that is about 9x the number of people known to have been infected by covid-19 in the US (3,100,000+). 4.5x the number assuming 50% fully asymptomatic.
            3) multiply 2x4.5 and 2x9 and note that 10 is between them, but very much closer to the best case scenario.
            Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-10-2020, 04:38 PM.
            My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

            If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

            This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

            Comment


            • #96
              Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
              Consider your interpretation of my point in the previous post in bold/italic above.

              When and if you can understand how completely confused that statement shows you to be, there is no point in further discussion.

              But I will help you out a bit.

              1) A bad flu season is 60,000 plus. I compared covid to the worst of flu seasons.
              2) The flu infects in a given season around 26,000,000 people. Note that is about 9x the number of people known to have been infected by covid-19 in the US (3,100,000+). 4.5x the number assuming 50% fully asymptomatic.
              3) multiply 2x4.5 and 2x9 and note that 10 is between them, but very much closer to the best case scenario.
              I you say you see, this just how blind you are. The only reason we have so many "cases" of coronavirus is because this has been tested more than any other virus. Flu virus is typically only tested when someone goes into the hospital -- and not even all the time they come in with flu symptoms. So your numbers mean absolutely nothing.

              Comment


              • #97
                Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                I know the feeling of posting calculations and scientific links while not getting responses on those. Then the topic comes up again and I don't have the links handy enough to just copy and paste here. But whenever I have done the calculations, the panic news never pans out to real deaths. If you can repost the data for places like California or Texas which shows the covid deaths to the previous year flu/influenza deaths, we can look at that. Remember that context is key here. Remember also that the number of deaths due to the "solution" to coronavirus also has to be examined so that we see if the solution is better than having an open society.
                This line of reasoning ;without sources to back up you assertions has a long history. The sources posted in the past due document the fatality rates of the COVID-19 compared yo flu deaths and in the top four pandemics in the 20th and 21st century the COVID-19 pandemic is a clear 2nd behind the 1917-1920 -pandemic.

                You can easily google sources and post if there are references to support your arguments. So far you have presented none.
                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                Frank

                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                Comment


                • #98
                  Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                  I you say you see, this just how blind you are. The only reason we have so many "cases" of coronavirus is because this has been tested more than any other virus. Flu virus is typically only tested when someone goes into the hospital -- and not even all the time they come in with flu symptoms. So your numbers mean absolutely nothing.
                  The measure of the pandemic is the number of fatalities and severe cases and hospitalizations, and not simply number of cases.
                  Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                  Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                  But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                  go with the flow the river knows . . .

                  Frank

                  I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                    This line of reasoning ;without sources to back up you assertions has a long history. The sources posted in the past due document the fatality rates of the COVID-19 compared yo flu deaths and in the top four pandemics in the 20th and 21st century the COVID-19 pandemic is a clear 2nd behind the 1917-1920 -pandemic.

                    You can easily google sources and post if there are references to support your arguments. So far you have presented none.
                    I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                    I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                    I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                    I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                    I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                    I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                    I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                    I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                    I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                    I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                    Hopefully this does need repeating.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                      I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                      I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                      I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                      I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                      I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                      I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                      I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                      I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                      I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                      I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.

                      Hopefully this does need repeating.
                      The above is the reason your responses are meaningless. our calculations make your qualified as the ENRON book keeper.

                      Again and again and again it is not the number of cases that are the measure of a pandemic oarticularly in any one location. It is the fatalities, hospitalization.
                      Last edited by shunyadragon; 07-10-2020, 07:42 PM.
                      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                      go with the flow the river knows . . .

                      Frank

                      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                        ...as the ENRON book keeper....
                        You really need to come up with some new material.
                        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                          The above is the reason your responses are meaningless. our calculations make your qualified as the ENRON book keeper.

                          Again and again and again it is not the number of cases that are the measure of a pandemic oarticularly in any one location. It is the fatalities, hospitalization.
                          It used to be the number of deaths. That was removed years ago. So WHO was able to declare it as a pandemic on lesser grounds. The little clue to this decreased standard for declaring pandemics should be obvious by the fact that most states have only had small increase of deaths due to covid compared to other years for flu deaths.

                          I state all this so people won't be over-burdened in useless obligations and fears. Of course you have the option to believe what you want.
                          Last edited by mikewhitney; 07-11-2020, 12:25 AM.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                            You really need to come up with some new material.
                            I have posted numerous well documented references. mike has not. All he does is present conflicting and confusing posts, and dishonestly challenges the accuracy of the numbers of fatalities.
                            Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                            Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                            But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                            go with the flow the river knows . . .

                            Frank

                            I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                              It used to be the number of deaths. That was removed years ago. So WHO was able to declare it as a pandemic on lesser grounds. The little clue to this decreased standard for declaring pandemics should be obvious by the fact that most states have only had small increase of deaths due to covid compared to other years for flu deaths.

                              I state all this so people won't be over-burdened in useless obligations and fears. Of course you have the option to believe what you want.
                              References? Which are never forthcoming. The number of fatalities, disease severity, and extent of spread around the globe has always and remains the main criteria for epidemics and pandemics.

                              Source: https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/7/11-088815/en/


                              Simultaneous worldwide transmission of influenza is sufficient to define an influenza pandemic and is consistent with the classical definition of “an epidemic occurring worldwide”. There is then ample opportunity to further describe the potential range of influenza pandemics in terms of transmissibility and disease severity. The emerging evidence for A(H1N1) is that transmissibility, as estimated by the effective reproduction number (R, or average number of people infected by a single infectious person) ranged from 1.2 to 1.3 for the general population but was around 1.5 in children (Kathryn Glass, Australian National University, personal communication). Some early estimates of R for pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 may have been overestimated.3

                              Severity, as estimated by the case fatality ratio, probably ranged from 0.01 to 0.03%.4–6 These values are very similar to those normally seen in the case of seasonal influenza.7,8 However, the number of deaths was higher in younger people, a recognized feature of previous influenza pandemics.9

                              © Copyright Original Source



                              Source: https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/features/what-is-pandemic#1



                              The CDC's definition of a flu epidemic relates to the percentage of deaths in a given week caused by influenza and pneumonia. The "epidemic threshold" is a certain percentage above what is considered normal for that period. The normal level, or baseline, is statistically determined based on data from past flu seasons.


                              Seasonal flu epidemics may sicken millions, but those who die are typically a small number of the elderly, very young children, and people with weak immune systems. That's not the case during the worst influenza pandemics.

                              There are two main features of an influenza pandemic. First, the virus is a new strain that has never infected people before.
                              Second, it's on a global scale. Sometimes it's also unusually deadly.


                              "A pandemic is basically a global epidemic -- an epidemic that spreads to more than one continent," says Dan Epstein, a spokesman for the Pan American Health Organization, a regional office of the World Health Organization.

                              Influenza pandemics have struck about three times every century since the 1500s, or roughly every 10-50 years. There was one in 1957-1958 and one in 1968-1969. The most infamous pandemic flu of the 20th century, however, was that of 1918-1919. An estimated 40 million people died in less than a year, and what made it so different from seasonal flu epidemics is that it killed primarily young people, those aged 20-45.

                              © Copyright Original Source

                              Last edited by shunyadragon; 07-11-2020, 07:56 AM.
                              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                              go with the flow the river knows . . .

                              Frank

                              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                                You really need to come up with some new material.
                                Thing are not going well in Texas . .

                                Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/all-hospitals-are-full-houston-overwhelmed-icus-leave-covid-19-n1233430




                                'All the hospitals are full': In Houston, overwhelmed ICUs leave COVID-19 patients waiting in ER
                                Officials in Houston warn of a potential replay of what happened in New York in the spring, when thousands of people died as hospitals struggled to keep up.


                                July 10, 2020, 2:15 PM EDT
                                By Mike Hixenbaugh and Charles Ornstein, ProPublica
                                This article was produced in partnership with ProPublica, a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive ProPublica's biggest stories as soon as they’re published.

                                HOUSTON — Houston hospitals have been forced to treat hundreds of COVID-19 patients in their emergency rooms — sometimes for several hours or multiple days — as they scramble to open additional intensive care beds for the wave of seriously ill people streaming through their doors, according to internal numbers shared with NBC News and ProPublica.

                                At the same time, the region’s 12 busiest hospitals are increasingly telling emergency responders that they cannot safely accept new patients, at a rate nearly three times that of a year ago, according to data reviewed by reporters.

                                The increase in ambulance diversions, coupled with the spike in patients being held indefinitely in emergency rooms, are the latest indicators that Houston hospitals are straining to keep up with a surge of new coronavirus patients. ProPublica and NBC News have previously reported that a public hospital in Houston ran out of a medication to treat COVID-19 patients and that a spike in at-home deaths from cardiac arrest suggests that the death toll from the coronavirus may be higher than official statistics show.

                                On Thursday, 3,812 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 in the region, including more than 1,000 in intensive care units, a record since the pandemic began. At the same time, since Texas officials have not issued another stay-at-home order to slow the virus’s spread, hospitals are also still seeing a steady flow of patients in need of care as a result of car accidents, violent crime and heat-related medical emergencies.



                                Houston patients wait in ER for hours, days before being moved to hospital beds
                                JULY 10, 202004:24
                                Officials in Houston are warning that the situation could become a replay of what happened in New York City in March and April, when thousands of people died as hospitals struggled to keep up with the surge of patients, but without the same level of government intervention to stem the tide.

                                Typically when people arrive at a hospital emergency department, they’re evaluated and treated by the medical staff. Those sick or injured enough to require hospitalization are then moved to other areas of the hospital for specialized care. But increasingly in Houston, particularly for patients suffering from COVID-19, there’s nowhere for them to go.

                                Full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak

                                “Normally that patient would just go to an ICU bed, but because there are no beds available, they continue to board in the emergency room,” said Harris Health System president and CEO Esmaeil Porsa, who oversees the city’s two public safety-net hospitals. “It is not an optimal level of care. This is not something we would choose to do. The only reason this is happening is because we are being forced to do it.”

                                Although hospital leaders say they are working to provide high-quality care for patients being held in emergency rooms — in part by bringing specialized medical staff and equipment to patients being treated there — studies done before the coronavirus pandemic show that the longer patients stay in ERs, the worse their outcomes.

                                © Copyright Original Source

                                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                                Frank

                                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                                Comment

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