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  • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    First - you have never been able to demonstrate you even understand how to calculate disease mortality for a given area. To date, you have tried to use the total population of an area, not number of cases in that area, as your denominator. Absolute foolishness.


    So - we are four weeks after the most recent rise in cases, and the death rate has now been climbing for about a week, on the national level, as expected when the shift in demographic is taken into account. Without that shift we could have expected to see a rise about a week earlier. Nothing is behaving outside what was to be expected or in a way that indicates our basic understanding of the disease is flawed.
    I barely skimmed through anything between the start and finish of your post. I saw blah blah blah and didn't think there was anything substantial after than. Last I remember is that we needed some data from specific cities or counties to show the deaths increasing in proportion to the number of new cases found. Maybe you posted that but it got lost in all the unsubstantial portion between "you have never" and "disease is flawed."

    Comment


    • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
      I barely skimmed through anything between the start and finish of your post. I saw blah blah blah and didn't think there was anything substantial after than. Last I remember is that we needed some data from specific cities or counties to show the deaths increasing in proportion to the number of new cases found. Maybe you posted that but it got lost in all the unsubstantial portion between "you have never" and "disease is flawed."
      Doesn't surprise me. You don't understand science, or scientific principles, so everything in between the two paragraphs is incomprehensible to you.

      But I did try
      My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

      If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

      This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

      Comment


      • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
        Doesn't surprise me. You don't understand science, or scientific principles, so everything in between the two paragraphs is incomprehensible to you.

        But I did try
        The test that you have to pass before you can show scientific supremacy is that you can get the actual data for a city or county and you can match that data (without weird unsubstantiated multipliers) to the theoretical numbers that you are providing. Your theories are meaningless unless they predict the number of deaths in real life.

        We are still waiting to see your great skill here.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
          The test that you have to pass before you can show scientific supremacy is that you can get the actual data for a city or county and you can match that data (without weird unsubstantiated multipliers) to the theoretical numbers that you are providing. Your theories are meaningless unless they predict the number of deaths in real life.

          We are still waiting to see your great skill here.
          I've already made predictions silly man. but if you want another one, somewhere between 2% (1/2 current %) and 4% (current %) of the new cases since the ramp up in mid June through the end of July will die by the end of August. A very rough value, assuming the current actions actually keep the peak from going any higher, we could assume 35,000 cases/day average for 45 days (mid june to july 31) is 1,575,000 -> somewhere between 31,500 and 63,000 new deaths by the end of August - or we will be looking at between 160,000 and 190,000 deaths by the end of August.

          It will be worse than that if we don't get the current spike under control.

          Keep in mind this does not actually include residual deaths from cases prior adding to the total for that period, so I expect that to be perhaps low, unless some very drastic efforts* are made to stop the current progression of the virus.


          * I note California has rolled back its reopening. This will help.
          Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-13-2020, 05:20 PM.
          My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

          If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

          This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

          Comment


          • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
            I've already made predictions silly man. but if you want another one, somewhere between 2% (1/2 current %) and 4% (current %) of the new cases since the ramp up in mid June through the end of July will die by the end of August. A very rough value, assuming the current actions actually keep the peak from going any higher, we could assume 35,000 cases/day average for 45 days (mid june to july 31) is 1,575,000 -> somewhere between 31,500 and 63,000 new deaths by the end of August - or we will be looking at between 160,000 and 190,000 deaths by the end of August.

            It will be worse than that if we don't get the current spike under control.

            Keep in mind this does not actually include residual deaths from cases prior adding to the total for that period, so I expect that to be perhaps low, unless some very drastic efforts* are made to stop the current progression of the virus.


            * I note California has rolled back its reopening. This will help.
            I'm still waiting. I have had enough predictions to last a lifetime. How have increases in cases 2-3 weeks ago led to a related rise in deaths today?

            Stop hoping for people to suddenly collapse and die so that your numbers suddenly will work out as valid.

            California has a stupid governor who has done nothing but hurt the state. Drastically stupid actions don't help anyone.

            If you cannot show that increases in cases in California and Texas mean anything more than evidence that they are just testing more people, then show how the deaths have been increasing in the last month in a fashion proportional to the increases in cases. Otherwise you have Furgeson styled useless predictions of 2Million deaths in America. He got fired -- hey, but you are still here.
            Last edited by mikewhitney; 07-13-2020, 06:09 PM.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
              I'm still waiting. I have had enough predictions to last a lifetime. How have increases in cases 2-3 weeks ago led to a related rise in deaths today?

              Stop hoping for people to suddenly collapse and die so that your numbers suddenly will work out as valid.

              California has a stupid governor who has done nothing but hurt the state. Drastically stupid actions don't help anyone.

              If you cannot show that increases in cases in California and Texas mean anything more than evidence that they are just testing more people, then show how the deaths have been increasing in the last month in a fashion proportional to the increases in cases. Otherwise you have Furgeson styled useless predictions of 2Million deaths in America. He got fired -- hey, but you are still here.
              Deaths are up 28% on two weeks ago. https://www.nytimes.com/

              The ramp up is only just beginning.

              You're a nut though, so, who really cares what you think as long as you don't harm others through your inaction.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                I'm still waiting. I have had enough predictions to last a lifetime. How have increases in cases 2-3 weeks ago led to a related rise in deaths today?
                To ask that question means, literally, you simply don't understand anything about this.

                Stop hoping for people to suddenly collapse and die so that your numbers suddenly will work out as valid.
                That is nothing less that ad hom. You are attacking my character for simply reporting the truth. The virus has killed to date 4% of the the people diagnosed. This is simple reality, and it will continue because the virus is the virus - it does what it does. So - if we have 60,000 new cases reported today, somewhere between 1200 and 2400 of those people WILL die. There is nothing I can do about it. And it most certainly not something I want. But it is a reality. IF you actually care for, hope for, more people to live, then stop peddling misinformation about the virus.

                California has a stupid governor who has done nothing but hurt the state. Drastically stupid actions don't help anyone.
                California is running around 7500 cases/day. That is 150 to 300 people per day that will die from the virus. And it will only get worse if something isn't done to slow the spread of the virus.

                If you cannot show that increases in cases in California and Texas mean anything more than evidence that they are just testing more people, then show how the deaths have been increasing in the last month in a fashion proportional to the increases in cases. Otherwise you have Furgeson styled useless predictions of 2Million deaths in America. He got fired -- hey, but you are still here.
                And again, you clearly don't understand anything about what is happening wrt this virus.
                Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-13-2020, 06:25 PM.
                My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Zara View Post
                  Deaths are up 28% on two weeks ago. https://www.nytimes.com/

                  The ramp up is only just beginning.

                  You're a nut though, so, who really cares what you think as long as you don't harm others through your inaction.
                  The problem is there are too many people that do have influence over people that are constantly propagating misinformation about this virus. Not the least of which is our president, who like mike seems to think that if we just stop testing, the number of covid cases and deaths will go down ...
                  My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                  If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                  This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                    To ask that question means, literally, you simply don't understand anything about this.



                    That is nothing less that ad hom. You are attacking my character for simply reporting the truth. The virus has killed to date 4% of the the people diagnosed. This is simple reality, and it will continue because the virus is the virus - it does what it does. So - if we have 60,000 new cases reported today, somewhere between 1200 and 2400 of those people WILL die. There is nothing I can do about it. And it most certainly not something I want. But it is a reality. IF you actually care for, hope for, more people to live, then stop peddling misinformation about the virus.



                    California is running around 7500 cases/day. That is 150 to 300 people per day that will die from the virus. And it will only get worse if something isn't done to slow the spread of the virus.



                    And again, you clearly don't understand anything about what is happening wrt this virus.
                    you have not stated any real data. you only give predictions. You are a predictomaniac gone out of control. If people are not dying, what is the purpose of your models? where is the "reality" that you are trying to prove? How will you prove this is reality?

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Zara View Post
                      Deaths are up 28% on two weeks ago. https://www.nytimes.com/

                      The ramp up is only just beginning.

                      You're a nut though, so, who really cares what you think as long as you don't harm others through your inaction.
                      Okay then. Give the statistics. Let us see what the level was two weeks ago and what it is now.

                      Where have the greatest increases happened?

                      Even if I were a nut, you should be able to do this much investigation and proving of your concepts.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                        we can only hope so. feed the virus. feed the fear. hide under the covers.

                        but seriously. If we see the death rates go greatly above the flu/influenza death rates of previous flu seasons for states beyond New York, then we may have to take things more seriously. The problem is that every time I check a panic headline, the numbers don't work out to epidemic levels.

                        Oops. I just checked this website: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
                        They show 0.06% death rate in the 2018-19 flu season.
                        No, they don't. They show 34,157 deaths from influenza in 2018-2019, which out of a total population of around 350 million is 0.01%, not 0.06%.

                        California is at 7800/26Million (0.03%).
                        California has a population of 39.5 million, not 26 million. Their actual fatality rate is 180 per million, or 0.018% - nearly twice as high as last year's flu season. But California is nowhere near one of the worst states hit.
                        So there is a lot of catch up to do to make this as bad as last year flu season.
                        Using the actual numbers from last year's flu season - 34,157 deaths, or 97 per million people, there is no catch up needed at all since the COVID fatalities are already four times as high US-wide, with 40 states already having had more than 97 fatalities per million.
                        Please do the calculations instead of just reading the headlines. Life will be much prettier.
                        Please do the real calculations and stop lying about the numbers. Morons like you are why some people are dying because they think COVID is no worse than the flue, and the scare is just a hoax.
                        Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                        MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                        MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                        seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Zara View Post
                          Deaths are up 28% on two weeks ago. https://www.nytimes.com/

                          The ramp up is only just beginning.

                          You're a nut though, so, who really cares what you think as long as you don't harm others through your inaction.
                          . . . or negative actions, and promoting the spread of COVID-19 Like Trump the pandemic is a lie.
                          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                          go with the flow the river knows . . .

                          Frank

                          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Sparko View Post

                            And there is no way that wearing masks will become mandatory forever. People won't do it. And it can cause health problems of it's own.
                            That's what some people were saying in the 1970's when talks about making seat belts mandatory. My guess is you were one of them, or maybe your dad or grandpa. Guess what? They lost.

                            I guess we could all start wearing Burkas.
                            You would look cute...

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                              ... there is no meaningful parallel between wearing a mask and wearing a seat belt.
                              BOTH can save lives...

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by little_monkey View Post
                                BOTH can save lives...
                                Both are trivially easy to put on and take off, and both provide a massive improvement in safety at the cost of only the most modest of inconvenience.
                                My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                                If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                                This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                                Comment

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