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Trump Victory Prediction

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  • #16
    Originally posted by seer View Post
    Now there is a man who knows his history! Wilson's wife was the de-facto president. As Biden's wife will be...
    Wait, his wife? or his sister?
    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
      This model totally ignores all polls and all "real world" developments.
      Are there people who still think opinion polls are worth a hill of beans? It's one thing to say, "I prefer this candidate over that candidate"; it's quite another to actually go out and vote for him. The Democrat party realizes this, which is why they're desperately trying to change the rules of the game with "virtual debates" and vote fraud by mail.
      Last edited by Mountain Man; 07-09-2020, 11:29 AM.
      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
      Than a fool in the eyes of God


      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
        Are there people who still think opinion polls are worth a hill of beans?
        Trump does.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
          I'll be as surprised if he doesn't win the reelection as I was that he got elected in the first place.
          Explain that one? He's far more down in the polls (I'm assuming as a science guy you take polls seriously) than he was against Hillary and it wasn't like he blew Hillary away that much.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by seanD View Post
            Explain that one? He's far more down in the polls (I'm assuming as a science guy you take polls seriously) than he was against Hillary and it wasn't like he blew Hillary away that much.
            It was close back then, I'll agree. However I don't trust the polls to show that is down in popularity. Popular polls are notoriously difficult and easy to bias in many ways. I take it as a given that he is going to win, unless I've missed something completely. He'll have surprised me. This is all a subjective take, but without data I trust I can't really do anything else.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
              This model totally ignores all polls and all "real world" developments. For example, it ignores all the current polls which have Biden with somewhere around a +10 lead over Trump, and also ignores things like the coronavirus pandemic, high US unemployment and federal debt, and Trump's apparent support for the Confederacy in the Civil War.

              In fact, it appears that this "Primary Model" gives Trump a 91% chance of victory solely because Biden lost the primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa. This isn't much in the way of evidence to base an election prediction on.
              Yes, he acknowledges that polls are not considered. He places much more weight on the excitement among the electorate, where Trump has more than Biden.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Ronson View Post
                Yes, he acknowledges that polls are not considered. He places much more weight on the excitement among the electorate, where Trump has more than Biden.
                Trump is struggling against two invisible enemies: the coronavirus and Joe Biden.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
                  It was close back then, I'll agree. However I don't trust the polls to show that is down in popularity. Popular polls are notoriously difficult and easy to bias in many ways. I take it as a given that he is going to win, unless I've missed something completely. He'll have surprised me. This is all a subjective take, but without data I trust I can't really do anything else.
                  Well, I got to say, I'm surprised by this. There are those who take polls like its gospel because to them, it's akin to scientific data. That's why I asked.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by seanD View Post
                    Well, I got to say, I'm surprised by this. There are those who take polls like its gospel because to them, it's akin to scientific data. That's why I asked.
                    It can be useful, but only in conjunction with other evidence. On it's own you have to be very critical of the results.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
                      This model totally ignores all polls and all "real world" developments. For example, it ignores all the current polls which have Biden with somewhere around a +10 lead over Trump, and also ignores things like the coronavirus pandemic, high US unemployment and federal debt, and Trump's apparent support for the Confederacy in the Civil War.

                      In fact, it appears that this "Primary Model" gives Trump a 91% chance of victory solely because Biden lost the primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa. This isn't much in the way of evidence to base an election prediction on.
                      I wonder if he's considering Biden's mental health issues. It seems Biden crashed and burned in Iowa after he had that debate where they were all ganging up on him and even questioning his mental capacity (can't remember which specific debate, but it was Harris and Castro doing the most of the damage). Then Biden miraculously recovered after a strong showing in SC (followed of course by the obvious backroom collusion of the others dropping out and endorsing him), but that was after the debates had stopped. Point being, maybe he's considering Biden's mental health, which has shown to be a probable factor earlier on, though he doesn't openly say it because it's a faux pas to talk about it.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by seanD View Post
                        There are those who take polls like its gospel because to them, it's akin to scientific data.
                        No one does this.

                        No one.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                          Well, thanks for a well thought out post, but I wish I were as optimistic. I see Big Media and Big Tech pulling so hard for the left. I hope Biden gets to make a few more speeches, and I REALLY hope there are actual debates. Biden can't even follow his own teleprompter without stumbling and stammering and getting frustrated. But Big Media doesn't pay any attention to that. It's all OrangeManBad.

                          I hope you're right.
                          I will do the optimistic thing and say Biden might surprise everyone with his crisp oratory skills. Give Joe a chance. Lull them into a sense of security. Surely Joe can stand toe to toe with orangy, the totally complete moron of orange. Ok, my time is up...

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Maranatha View Post
                            I will do the optimistic thing and say Biden might surprise everyone with his crisp oratory skills. Give Joe a chance. Lull them into a sense of security. Surely Joe can stand toe to toe with orangy, the totally complete moron of orange. Ok, my time is up...
                            Are you here every night this week?
                            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Ronson View Post
                              https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9609236.html

                              Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professorÂ’s model predicts
                              Winning candidate calculated on early presidential nominating contest and discounting opinion surveys
                              Wednesday 8 July 2020 23:39

                              President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

                              “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.

                              Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced...


                              So all is not lost. I'm not as repulsed by Biden as I was by Hillary, but he could be equally as dangerous.
                              At the head of Mr. Northops prediction he cautions, 'considering the coronavirus I may have to revise my prediction, especially if the Presidents support begins to crack. Well, his support has definitely begun to crack. Besides that, I do believe this upcoming election will differ than past elections in that it won't be "about the economy stupid" which itself will be terrible, but it will more likely be a referendum on Trumps character, his authoritarian nature, his lack of respect for the law and the Constitution, his corruption, his lack of leadership qualities, and though questionable to some, not to me, his treason. I don't think he has a snowballs chance in hell to win the election legitimately, but I'm sure he will do everything in his power to win it illigitimately and may even claim the loss to be due to election rigging and refuse to leave,

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                                Are you here every night this week?
                                "I'm here all week, folks"

                                I would change that to "delivering comedy from leftist craziness for over thirty years!"

                                When I run out of things to say or forget what we were talking about, I do like Joe does and give my remaining time to other posters.

                                Comment

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