Originally posted by seer
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Trump Victory Prediction
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Originally posted by Reepicheep View PostThis model totally ignores all polls and all "real world" developments.votefraud by mail.Last edited by Mountain Man; 07-09-2020, 11:29 AM.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostAre there people who still think opinion polls are worth a hill of beans?
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Originally posted by Leonhard View PostI'll be as surprised if he doesn't win the reelection as I was that he got elected in the first place.
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Originally posted by seanD View PostExplain that one? He's far more down in the polls (I'm assuming as a science guy you take polls seriously) than he was against Hillary and it wasn't like he blew Hillary away that much.
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Originally posted by Reepicheep View PostThis model totally ignores all polls and all "real world" developments. For example, it ignores all the current polls which have Biden with somewhere around a +10 lead over Trump, and also ignores things like the coronavirus pandemic, high US unemployment and federal debt, and Trump's apparent support for the Confederacy in the Civil War.
In fact, it appears that this "Primary Model" gives Trump a 91% chance of victory solely because Biden lost the primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa. This isn't much in the way of evidence to base an election prediction on.
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Originally posted by Leonhard View PostIt was close back then, I'll agree. However I don't trust the polls to show that is down in popularity. Popular polls are notoriously difficult and easy to bias in many ways. I take it as a given that he is going to win, unless I've missed something completely. He'll have surprised me. This is all a subjective take, but without data I trust I can't really do anything else.
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Originally posted by seanD View PostWell, I got to say, I'm surprised by this. There are those who take polls like its gospel because to them, it's akin to scientific data. That's why I asked.
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Originally posted by Reepicheep View PostThis model totally ignores all polls and all "real world" developments. For example, it ignores all the current polls which have Biden with somewhere around a +10 lead over Trump, and also ignores things like the coronavirus pandemic, high US unemployment and federal debt, and Trump's apparent support for the Confederacy in the Civil War.
In fact, it appears that this "Primary Model" gives Trump a 91% chance of victory solely because Biden lost the primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa. This isn't much in the way of evidence to base an election prediction on.
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Originally posted by Cow Poke View PostWell, thanks for a well thought out post, but I wish I were as optimistic. I see Big Media and Big Tech pulling so hard for the left. I hope Biden gets to make a few more speeches, and I REALLY hope there are actual debates. Biden can't even follow his own teleprompter without stumbling and stammering and getting frustrated. But Big Media doesn't pay any attention to that. It's all OrangeManBad.
I hope you're right.
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Originally posted by Maranatha View PostI will do the optimistic thing and say Biden might surprise everyone with his crisp oratory skills. Give Joe a chance. Lull them into a sense of security. Surely Joe can stand toe to toe with orangy, the totally complete moron of orange. Ok, my time is up...The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by Ronson View Posthttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9609236.html
Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professorÂ’s model predicts
Winning candidate calculated on early presidential nominating contest and discounting opinion surveys
Wednesday 8 July 2020 23:39
President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.
Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced...
So all is not lost. I'm not as repulsed by Biden as I was by Hillary, but he could be equally as dangerous.
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Originally posted by Cow Poke View PostAre you here every night this week?
I would change that to "delivering comedy from leftist craziness for over thirty years!"
When I run out of things to say or forget what we were talking about, I do like Joe does and give my remaining time to other posters.
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