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Thread: Trump Victory Prediction

  1. #1
    tWebber Ronson's Avatar
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    Trump Victory Prediction

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9609236.html

    Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts
    Winning candidate calculated on early presidential nominating contest and discounting opinion surveys
    Wednesday 8 July 2020 23:39

    President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

    “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.

    Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced...


    So all is not lost. I'm not as repulsed by Biden as I was by Hillary, but he could be equally as dangerous.

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    tWebber whag's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronson View Post
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9609236.html

    Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts
    Winning candidate calculated on early presidential nominating contest and discounting opinion surveys
    Wednesday 8 July 2020 23:39

    President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

    “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.

    Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced...


    So all is not lost. I'm not as repulsed by Biden as I was by Hillary, but he could be equally as dangerous.
    Trump is bailing out corporations instead of helping small businesses and people who’ve lost jobs during the lockdown. There’s no evidence that Biden would have done differently. It’s still smarter to vote for the least malignant narcissist of the two since malignant narcissism never ends well.

    Oh wait, neither does Alzheimer’s. /=

    Just flip a coin.

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    tWebber Ronson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by whag View Post
    Trump is bailing out corporations instead of helping small businesses and people who’ve lost jobs during the lockdown. There’s no evidence that Biden would have done differently. It’s still smarter to vote for the least malignant narcissist of the two since malignant narcissism never ends well.
    Those details are really in Congress's court.

    Oh wait, neither does Alzheimer’s. /=

    Just flip a coin.
    I know what I'm getting with Trump. He's been in there for 3½ years and has been anti-globalization and anti-militaristic. I'm fine with those libertarian attributes.

    Biden is an unknown. I don't think he would survive his first term so his VP pick will be another unknown to deal with. Biden has espoused globalism and military confrontations, which doesn't work for me.

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    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronson View Post
    I'm not as repulsed by Biden as I was by Hillary, but he could be equally as dangerous.
    It's not Biden you need to be wary of but his VP, because if Biden wins, he will almost certainly resign before the end of his first term due to cognitive decline.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  5. Amen Cow Poke, Ronson amen'd this post.
  6. #5
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronson View Post
    So all is not lost. I'm not as repulsed by Biden as I was by Hillary, but he could be equally as dangerous.
    I'm not 'repulsed' by Biden - I just see him as the "get us in there" from the liberals, because Joe seems more like a nursing home patient, and will need "handlers".
    I'm repulsed by those potential handlers.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  7. Amen Ronson, RumTumTugger amen'd this post.
  8. #6
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by whag View Post
    Trump is bailing out corporations instead of helping small businesses and people who’ve lost jobs during the lockdown. There’s no evidence that Biden would have done differently. It’s still smarter to vote for the least malignant narcissist of the two since malignant narcissism never ends well.

    Oh wait, neither does Alzheimer’s. /=

    Just flip a coin.
    Trump wins in handling the economy, even though he trails in so many other areas. If it's still "the economy, stupid", Trump still has a chance.
    I'm frustrated that, every time the liberals hand him a winning issue on a silver platter, he poops on it, and starts a tweet tirade about something else.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  9. #7
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronson View Post
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9609236.html

    Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts
    Winning candidate calculated on early presidential nominating contest and discounting opinion surveys
    Wednesday 8 July 2020 23:39

    President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

    “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.

    Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced...


    So all is not lost. I'm not as repulsed by Biden as I was by Hillary, but he could be equally as dangerous.
    I don't see anything in Biden that will move the needle. And VP picks can only do so much, historically.

    That being said, I will live through Biden if it happens, because all I have is a single vote. What I won't do is go on a four year hissy fit over it.

  10. #8
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maranatha View Post
    I don't see anything in Biden that will move the needle. And VP picks can only do so much, historically.
    His case is different, I think, because I really don't believe that anybody things Biden will actually complete a first term.

    That being said, I will live through Biden if it happens, because all I have is a single vote. What I won't do is go on a four year hissy fit over it.
    You mean you don't intend to get OUTRAGED over it? Some posters on here get OUTRAGED that you won't outraged, and you must NOT be a PATRIOT!

    (I don't get 'outraged' either)
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    I'm not 'repulsed' by Biden - I just see him as the "get us in there" from the liberals, because Joe seems more like a nursing home patient, and will need "handlers".
    I'm repulsed by those potential handlers.
    Biden is bad enough in his own right. He's been in Washington for decades and has nothing to offer beyond the same old failed ideas.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  12. #10
    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    I'll be as surprised if he doesn't win the reelection as I was that he got elected in the first place.

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