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Trump Victory Prediction

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  • Trump Victory Prediction

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9609236.html

    Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts
    Winning candidate calculated on early presidential nominating contest and discounting opinion surveys
    Wednesday 8 July 2020 23:39

    President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

    “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.

    Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced...


    So all is not lost. I'm not as repulsed by Biden as I was by Hillary, but he could be equally as dangerous.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Ronson View Post
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9609236.html

    Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts
    Winning candidate calculated on early presidential nominating contest and discounting opinion surveys
    Wednesday 8 July 2020 23:39

    President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

    “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.

    Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced...


    So all is not lost. I'm not as repulsed by Biden as I was by Hillary, but he could be equally as dangerous.
    Trump is bailing out corporations instead of helping small businesses and people who’ve lost jobs during the lockdown. There’s no evidence that Biden would have done differently. It’s still smarter to vote for the least malignant narcissist of the two since malignant narcissism never ends well.

    Oh wait, neither does Alzheimer’s. /=

    Just flip a coin.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by whag View Post
      Trump is bailing out corporations instead of helping small businesses and people who’ve lost jobs during the lockdown. There’s no evidence that Biden would have done differently. It’s still smarter to vote for the least malignant narcissist of the two since malignant narcissism never ends well.
      Those details are really in Congress's court.

      Oh wait, neither does Alzheimer’s. /=

      Just flip a coin.
      I know what I'm getting with Trump. He's been in there for 3½ years and has been anti-globalization and anti-militaristic. I'm fine with those libertarian attributes.

      Biden is an unknown. I don't think he would survive his first term so his VP pick will be another unknown to deal with. Biden has espoused globalism and military confrontations, which doesn't work for me.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Ronson View Post
        I'm not as repulsed by Biden as I was by Hillary, but he could be equally as dangerous.
        It's not Biden you need to be wary of but his VP, because if Biden wins, he will almost certainly resign before the end of his first term due to cognitive decline.
        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
        Than a fool in the eyes of God


        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Ronson View Post
          So all is not lost. I'm not as repulsed by Biden as I was by Hillary, but he could be equally as dangerous.
          I'm not 'repulsed' by Biden - I just see him as the "get us in there" from the liberals, because Joe seems more like a nursing home patient, and will need "handlers".
          I'm repulsed by those potential handlers.
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by whag View Post
            Trump is bailing out corporations instead of helping small businesses and people who’ve lost jobs during the lockdown. There’s no evidence that Biden would have done differently. It’s still smarter to vote for the least malignant narcissist of the two since malignant narcissism never ends well.

            Oh wait, neither does Alzheimer’s. /=

            Just flip a coin.
            Trump wins in handling the economy, even though he trails in so many other areas. If it's still "the economy, stupid", Trump still has a chance.
            I'm frustrated that, every time the liberals hand him a winning issue on a silver platter, he poops on it, and starts a tweet tirade about something else.
            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Ronson View Post
              https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9609236.html

              Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts
              Winning candidate calculated on early presidential nominating contest and discounting opinion surveys
              Wednesday 8 July 2020 23:39

              President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

              “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.

              Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced...


              So all is not lost. I'm not as repulsed by Biden as I was by Hillary, but he could be equally as dangerous.
              I don't see anything in Biden that will move the needle. And VP picks can only do so much, historically.

              That being said, I will live through Biden if it happens, because all I have is a single vote. What I won't do is go on a four year hissy fit over it.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Maranatha View Post
                I don't see anything in Biden that will move the needle. And VP picks can only do so much, historically.
                His case is different, I think, because I really don't believe that anybody things Biden will actually complete a first term.

                That being said, I will live through Biden if it happens, because all I have is a single vote. What I won't do is go on a four year hissy fit over it.
                You mean you don't intend to get OUTRAGED over it? Some posters on here get OUTRAGED that you won't outraged, and you must NOT be a PATRIOT!

                (I don't get 'outraged' either)
                The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                  I'm not 'repulsed' by Biden - I just see him as the "get us in there" from the liberals, because Joe seems more like a nursing home patient, and will need "handlers".
                  I'm repulsed by those potential handlers.
                  Biden is bad enough in his own right. He's been in Washington for decades and has nothing to offer beyond the same old failed ideas.
                  Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                  But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                  Than a fool in the eyes of God


                  From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I'll be as surprised if he doesn't win the reelection as I was that he got elected in the first place.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                      His case is different, I think, because I really don't believe that anybody things Biden will actually complete a first term.

                      You mean you don't intend to get OUTRAGED over it? Some posters on here get OUTRAGED that you won't outraged, and you must NOT be a PATRIOT!

                      (I don't get 'outraged' either)
                      Times sure are different. I hear you, but I think the old rules still apply, somewhat. It was easy to see Obama getting elected. But Biden brings nothing to the table, his record and personality are nothing to be motivated about. I don't believe anti-trump is enough motivation, that baseline was applied in 2016. It remains to be seen, but I think the overriding factor will echo the Rajun Cajun, it's the economy.

                      A more serious reason for me is I am tremendously thankful to the Lord for having been born here, during our times, I understand the blessings we have here. But as I look at this world, I see many more of our brethren living in communism, and every other ism out there. I can survive because my life isn't based on the government I live under, I will adapt. In the world but not of it.

                      It will be a sad day for history if the radicals get their way. The US is the US because it is not like anywhere else.

                      Really, if someone wants a different form of government, they should go visit such a place, see if real exposure has any effect on their opinion. Maybe even move there, and leave this place as it is, we're ok. I have, and when landing back in the US I wanted to kiss the ground. I didn't because, yuck, that's gross.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Maranatha View Post
                        Times sure are different. I hear you, but I think the old rules still apply, somewhat. It was easy to see Obama getting elected. But Biden brings nothing to the table, his record and personality are nothing to be motivated about. I don't believe anti-trump is enough motivation, that baseline was applied in 2016. It remains to be seen, but I think the overriding factor will echo the Rajun Cajun, it's the economy.

                        A more serious reason for me is I am tremendously thankful to the Lord for having been born here, during our times, I understand the blessings we have here. But as I look at this world, I see many more of our brethren living in communism, and every other ism out there. I can survive because my life isn't based on the government I live under, I will adapt. In the world but not of it.

                        It will be a sad day for history if the radicals get their way. The US is the US because it is not like anywhere else.

                        Really, if someone wants a different form of government, they should go visit such a place, see if real exposure has any effect on their opinion. Maybe even move there, and leave this place as it is, we're ok. I have, and when landing back in the US I wanted to kiss the ground. I didn't because, yuck, that's gross.
                        Well, thanks for a well thought out post, but I wish I were as optimistic. I see Big Media and Big Tech pulling so hard for the left. I hope Biden gets to make a few more speeches, and I REALLY hope there are actual debates. Biden can't even follow his own teleprompter without stumbling and stammering and getting frustrated. But Big Media doesn't pay any attention to that. It's all OrangeManBad.

                        I hope you're right.
                        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                          It's not Biden you need to be wary of but his VP, because if Biden wins, he will almost certainly resign before the end of his first term due to cognitive decline.
                          Nope, they'll do the same as Woodrow Wilson after his stroke. He'll be hidden away unless absolutely necessary and other's will run the government. And of course, the media won't permit any discussion of whether the 25th amendment should be invoked.
                          "For I desire mercy, not sacrifice, and acknowledgment of God rather than burnt offerings." Hosea 6:6

                          "Theology can be an intellectual entertainment." Metropolitan Anthony Bloom

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            This model totally ignores all polls and all "real world" developments. For example, it ignores all the current polls which have Biden with somewhere around a +10 lead over Trump, and also ignores things like the coronavirus pandemic, high US unemployment and federal debt, and Trump's apparent support for the Confederacy in the Civil War.

                            In fact, it appears that this "Primary Model" gives Trump a 91% chance of victory solely because Biden lost the primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa. This isn't much in the way of evidence to base an election prediction on.
                            Last edited by Reepicheep; 07-09-2020, 10:42 AM.
                            "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
                            "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
                              Nope, they'll do the same as Woodrow Wilson after his stroke.
                              Now there is a man who knows his history! Wilson's wife was the de-facto president. As Biden's wife will be...
                              Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                              Comment

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