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Trump/Biden polls: significant new development

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  • Trump/Biden polls: significant new development

    There are several very good websites that track political polls. Simplifying slightly, in regards to the presidential election each website classifies each state as either Democratic or Republican, and either safe, likely, or leaning. States which are too close to call are toss-ups.

    270 electoral college votes are needed for victory. Until a few days ago, all four major polling analysis websites (Sabatos, Cook, Political, and Inside Elections) had Biden safe, likely, or leaning in states which gave him 268 votes, just short of a victory. The significant new development is that Cook just flipped Wisconsin and Nevada District 2 to leaning Democrat, which gives Biden a win with 279 votes.

    The situation is actually more dire for Trump than these numbers indicate. Including Wisconsin, there are currently four states which the websites consider to be tossup, the other three tossup states being Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. In reality, there are several more states which are currently classified as leaning Republican, but where recent polls show Biden and Trump essentially tied.

    As things stand now, Trump would have to sweep the following states including Nebraska District Two to win a second term. For each state, I give the result of the most recent polls.

    TOSSUP STATES
    +11 Biden - Nebraska District Two
    +8 Biden - Wisconsin
    +6 Biden - Florida
    +3 Biden - North Carolina
    +3 Biden - Arizona


    LEANING REPUBLICAN
    +3 Biden - Ohio
    +2 Biden - Georgia
    +2 Biden - Missouri

    TIED - Iowa
    +1 Trump - Texas


    If Trump were to take each of the above states, then he would be victorious with exactly 270 votes.

    From a polling standpoint, the situation for Trump looks pretty grim. It Biden takes each state where he currently has a lead, then he will win the electoral college by a count of 378 to 160.
    Last edited by Reepicheep; 07-10-2020, 10:17 AM.
    "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
    "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

  • #2
    Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
    There are several very good websites that track political polls. Simplifying slightly, in regards to the presidential election each website classifies each state as either Democratic or Republican, and either safe, likely, or leaning. States which are too close to call are toss-ups.

    270 electoral college votes are needed for victory. Until a few days ago, all four major polling analysis websites (Sabatos, Cook, Political, and Inside Elections) had Biden safe, likely, or leaning in states which gave him 268 votes, just short of a victory. The significant new development is that Cook just flipped Wisconsin and Nevada District 2 to leaning Democrat, which gives Biden a win with 279 votes.

    The situation is actually more dire for Trump than these numbers indicate. Including Wisconsin, there are currently four states which the websites consider to be tossup, the other three tossup states being Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. In reality, there are several more states which are currently classified as leaning Republican, but where recent polls show Biden and Trump essentially tied.

    As things stand now, Trump would have to sweep the following states including Nebraska District Two to win a second term. For each state, I give the result of the most recent polls.

    TOSSUP STATES
    +11 Biden - Nebraska District Two
    +8 Biden - Wisconsin
    +6 Biden - Florida
    +3 Biden - North Carolina
    +3 Biden - Arizona


    LEANING REPUBLICAN
    +3 Biden - Ohio
    +2 Biden - Georgia
    +2 Biden - Missouri

    TIED - Iowa
    +1 Trump - Texas


    If Trump were to take each of the above states, then he would be victorious with exactly 270 votes.

    From a polling standpoint, the situation for Trump looks pretty grim. It Biden takes each state where he currently has a lead, then he will win the electoral college by a count of 378 to 160.
    I wonder how much the 2016 polling environment applies to 2020.

    I'm referring to the fact that Trump supporters back then tended to not participate in polling as much as Clinton supporters did, which is part of the reason for the election-night "surprise"; Trump support was under-represented in most of the (state) polling data, though admittedly this occurred more towards the beginning of the campaigns than at the end.

    Today's social/political climate today is nothing like it was in 2016, so whether either candidate is accurately represented by the current polling data is anyone's guess. I tend to think that Trump supporters are more involved in polling today than they were back then - which means the polls are a bit more accurate now. However, I honestly don't know with any confidence.

    ps. these days, I'm on Youtube every day, searching for various things. One of the targeted ads I've received many times is from the Trump campaign, asking me to take part in a poll as to whether I think he's doing a good job. I've responded three times (out of the dozens of occasions the ad has appeared), and since that first response, I've gotten TONS of similar ads from him. Do I think the media is treating him fairly, do I think he'd win a debate with Joe Biden, do I think he'll restore law and order, do I think he's handling the pandemic well, etc. I'm getting tons of emails from his campaign, offering me plane tickets to go see him, offering me a platinum credit card somehow associated with His Greatness - spamming me much much much much much more than I've ever been spammed by a political candidate before. Some of those ads/emails are as sketchy-looking as the iconic letter from a long-lost uncle in Africa who's left me millions of dollars I can pay to get released to me, etc.

    It's pretty clear that Trump is watching the polling data very closely....

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
      I wonder how much the 2016 polling environment applies to 2020.
      I think the most significant change from 2016 is that voters no longer consider Trump to be a political outsider. In 2016, a lot of voters, many at the last second, were willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt and give him an opportunity to run America as a "business". It is pretty clear that Trump has failed to meet voter expectations, so in 2020 there are far fewer voters sitting on the fence.

      The other significant point which is often ignored is that Trump's victory came down to exactly 38,875 voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump will have difficulty pulling that rabbit out of his hat again.

      Below is an article which gives a good analysis of Cook Political Report's decision to give Biden the edge in the electoral college:

      https://www.axios.com/cook-political...7ee212ff3.html
      "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
      "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

      Comment


      • #4
        And Hillary had a better than 90% chance of winning.
        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
        Than a fool in the eyes of God


        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

        Comment


        • #5
          Don't we already have a thread on this?
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
            And Hillary had a better than 90% chance of winning.
            Never happened to any credible degree. Thanks for reminding us how much dogma trumps factual accuracy :)

            Fringe polls in the beginning? Sure. In general? Never happened.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
              Never happened to any credible degree.
              Yep... the predictions were wrong.
              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
              Than a fool in the eyes of God


              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                Yep... the predictions were wrong.
                Some were, mostly early into the campaign season. The closer to election day the predictions got, the less they were wrong

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
                  Some were, mostly early into the campaign season. The closer to election day the predictions got, the less they were wrong
                  Yet, right up to final results, the talking heads on the news channels were giddy / depressed until, finally, Trump scored the magic number of electoral votes, then the talking heads on the news channels were depressed / giddy.

                  The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
                    There are several very good websites that track political polls. Simplifying slightly, in regards to the presidential election each website classifies each state as either Democratic or Republican, and either safe, likely, or leaning. States which are too close to call are toss-ups.

                    270 electoral college votes are needed for victory. Until a few days ago, all four major polling analysis websites (Sabatos, Cook, Political, and Inside Elections) had Biden safe, likely, or leaning in states which gave him 268 votes, just short of a victory. The significant new development is that Cook just flipped Wisconsin and Nevada District 2 to leaning Democrat, which gives Biden a win with 279 votes.

                    The situation is actually more dire for Trump than these numbers indicate. Including Wisconsin, there are currently four states which the websites consider to be tossup, the other three tossup states being Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. In reality, there are several more states which are currently classified as leaning Republican, but where recent polls show Biden and Trump essentially tied.

                    As things stand now, Trump would have to sweep the following states including Nebraska District Two to win a second term. For each state, I give the result of the most recent polls.

                    TOSSUP STATES
                    +11 Biden - Nebraska District Two
                    +8 Biden - Wisconsin
                    +6 Biden - Florida
                    +3 Biden - North Carolina
                    +3 Biden - Arizona


                    LEANING REPUBLICAN
                    +3 Biden - Ohio
                    +2 Biden - Georgia
                    +2 Biden - Missouri

                    TIED - Iowa
                    +1 Trump - Texas


                    If Trump were to take each of the above states, then he would be victorious with exactly 270 votes.

                    From a polling standpoint, the situation for Trump looks pretty grim. It Biden takes each state where he currently has a lead, then he will win the electoral college by a count of 378 to 160.
                    Terrible news. I had no idea that the average American adult's IQ had dropped so much.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Christian3 View Post
                      Terrible news. I had no idea that the average American adult's IQ had dropped so much.
                      You apparently haven't been paying attention since at least 2015.

                      Maybe longer.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        It certainly looks bad for Trump right now, but there are 119 days until the election day. 119 days ago, for the sake of comparison, was March 13, which was before everything started shutting down. There have been so many separate sets of news cycles since then. In this information age, 119 days is an eternity.
                        "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
                          It certainly looks bad for Trump right now, but there are 119 days until the election day. 119 days ago, for the sake of comparison, was March 13, which was before everything started shutting down. There have been so many separate sets of news cycles since then. In this information age, 119 days is an eternity.
                          This is true.

                          The Trump Administration (though mainly just the president) has been chaotic, stretching the time dilation even further; any week during the last three and a half years has often felt like a month.

                          119 days might as well be a political millennium.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
                            There are several very good websites that track political polls. Simplifying slightly, in regards to the presidential election each website classifies each state as either Democratic or Republican, and either safe, likely, or leaning. States which are too close to call are toss-ups.

                            270 electoral college votes are needed for victory. Until a few days ago, all four major polling analysis websites (Sabatos, Cook, Political, and Inside Elections) had Biden safe, likely, or leaning in states which gave him 268 votes, just short of a victory. The significant new development is that Cook just flipped Wisconsin and Nevada District 2 to leaning Democrat, which gives Biden a win with 279 votes.

                            The situation is actually more dire for Trump than these numbers indicate. Including Wisconsin, there are currently four states which the websites consider to be tossup, the other three tossup states being Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. In reality, there are several more states which are currently classified as leaning Republican, but where recent polls show Biden and Trump essentially tied.

                            As things stand now, Trump would have to sweep the following states including Nebraska District Two to win a second term. For each state, I give the result of the most recent polls.

                            TOSSUP STATES
                            +11 Biden - Nebraska District Two
                            +8 Biden - Wisconsin
                            +6 Biden - Florida
                            +3 Biden - North Carolina
                            +3 Biden - Arizona


                            LEANING REPUBLICAN
                            +3 Biden - Ohio
                            +2 Biden - Georgia
                            +2 Biden - Missouri

                            TIED - Iowa
                            +1 Trump - Texas


                            If Trump were to take each of the above states, then he would be victorious with exactly 270 votes.

                            From a polling standpoint, the situation for Trump looks pretty grim. It Biden takes each state where he currently has a lead, then he will win the electoral college by a count of 378 to 160.
                            By question to you is: how do you think accurate polling numbers can be achieved when one side of the political spectrum considers you a reprobate if aren't on their side, and might even retaliate against you if they discover this about you? To me, this would explain the inconsistency with the high poll numbers in favor of Biden (folks may just be scared to admit support for Trump) when voter enthusiasm about Biden is so low.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                              Yet, right up to final results, the talking heads on the news channels were giddy / depressed until, finally, Trump scored the magic number of electoral votes, then the talking heads on the news channels were depressed / giddy.

                              Can we rest in the assurance that the media's depression was just because those at Hillary's gatherings didn't get booze and cookies ... and that the depression had nothing to do with a strong bias against freedom and Republicans?

                              Comment

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